Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the CMC and other models. The other models develop precipitation out into the gulf on the edge of the gulf coast at least, but the CMC throws moisture back into land. What is the CMC seeing that allows the moisture and precip to be thrown back into land?

[Rgv20]

Awesome. I appreciate it. So seems to me that the upper level is feeding more then expected. Do you see anything that may say other wise. Especially colder then what was forecasted here for our area

:uarrow: Wunderground and Intellicast is also a good one
[url]
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... region=bro[/url]
[url]
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap. ... ayers=0039[/url]

There is definitely more moisture than what it was forecast yesterday and as far as temperatures I think the NAM has done a good job so far. Looking at radar trends I think later this afternoon there is a good chance for some sleet in the mid valley. Hopefully a few flurries but model sounding suggest otherwise.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

The GFS has been periodically showing something similar around that time as well, although it still seems to be varying dramatically from run to run on 500mb pattern. The Jan 10-15 timeframe still seems to be holding up in the models, although its still a long ways out.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

Made it down to 17F at DFW airport, despite clouds lingering. Collage of sleet, snow, grains in S-Central and S Texas. It's cold everywhere in the state! Storm passes by tomorrow, seems mostly dry but you never know someone might sneak out a flurry. We thaw out slowly by the end of the week and back closer to normal early next week.

Like you just said STS something looks to maybe happen middle of next week. Models are back and forth but we should get another dislodge of cold air (doesn't appear as cold as this current one, but seasonably below normal) and dependent on storm systems which will be active. Climo now is favored that a deep storm can take advantage of.

So what's going to kick off the next -EPO? You guessed it, the East Siberian low! AKA Sea of Okhotsk low -> Poleward Aleutians low. That will shoot up another NE Pacific/Alaskan ridge towards the arctic basin.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

I see it also shows the coldest anomalies east of TX once again though.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

I see it also shows the coldest anomalies east of TX once again though.

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

[Cpv17]

12z Euro shows another cold air push during the middle part of next week. Disturbance approaching from the west too.

I see it also shows the coldest anomalies east of TX once again though.

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

With a 1050mb over Wyoming, (actually 1051 if you click on the NW region) why would the coldest anomalies be displaced so far to the east of the high? I see it has the high in Wyoming, but the core of the cold in Missouri. I figured with a high over Wyoming that would put Texas in a pretty good position at seeing the brunt of the coldest air as it usually slides down the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

I see it also shows the coldest anomalies east of TX once again though.

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

With a 1050mb over Wyoming, (actually 1051 if you click on the NW region) why would the coldest anomalies be displaced so far to the east of the high? I see it has the high in Wyoming, but the core of the cold in Missouri. I figured with a high over Wyoming that would put Texas in a pretty good position at seeing the brunt of the coldest air as it usually slides down the Rockies.

The trough out west pumps ridging ahead of temporarily. That kind of upper pattern aloft the models likes to slide it east. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that yet being a 10 day forecast and we just went through a period where the behavior of the synoptic pattern matters greatly with diverging guidance. Once that trough kicks our or is faster, it will pour cold into it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

With a 1050mb over Wyoming, (actually 1051 if you click on the NW region) why would the coldest anomalies be displaced so far to the east of the high? I see it has the high in Wyoming, but the core of the cold in Missouri. I figured with a high over Wyoming that would put Texas in a pretty good position at seeing the brunt of the coldest air as it usually slides down the Rockies.

The trough out west pumps ridging ahead of temporarily. That kind of upper pattern aloft the models likes to slide it east. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that yet being a 10 day forecast and we just went through a period where the behavior of the synoptic pattern matters greatly with diverging guidance. Once that trough kicks our or is faster, it will pour cold into it.

Also, youre looking at anomalies. Not actual temps.

[Cpv17]

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

With a 1050mb over Wyoming, (actually 1051 if you click on the NW region) why would the coldest anomalies be displaced so far to the east of the high? I see it has the high in Wyoming, but the core of the cold in Missouri. I figured with a high over Wyoming that would put Texas in a pretty good position at seeing the brunt of the coldest air as it usually slides down the Rockies.

The trough out west pumps ridging ahead of temporarily. That kind of upper pattern aloft the models likes to slide it east. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that yet being a 10 day forecast and we just went through a period where the behavior of the synoptic pattern matters greatly with diverging guidance. Once that trough kicks our or is faster, it will pour cold into it.

Makes sense now. Thanks for answering. It’s long range, but it’s nice knowing the potential is there.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Happy New Year fellow Storm2kers. A lovely sunny day currently with a 21 degree reading. I always enjoy a sunny day with highs below freezing. Very rare, this is some air mass!!! Hopefully we are still on track for another arctic dump in 10 days or so. DFW needs a blizzard darn it!!!

But if we get another arctic dump, it will be pretty much just too cold to snow again, except for a few stray flurries like we got yesterday.

[Cpv17]

Happy New Year fellow Storm2kers. A lovely sunny day currently with a 21 degree reading. I always enjoy a sunny day with highs below freezing. Very rare, this is some air mass!!! Hopefully we are still on track for another arctic dump in 10 days or so. DFW needs a blizzard darn it!!!

But if we get another arctic dump, it will be pretty much just too cold to snow again, except for a few stray flurries like we got yesterday.

Not too sure about that with a storm system approaching from the west.

[bubba hotep]

This just keeps happening, D9/10 cold keeps showing up

[Cpv17]

This looks promising.

[hamburgerman7070]

That would be fine. As long as we have the low in the west/southwest to give us some snow. I think we all have had a good taste of cold already

With a 1050mb over Wyoming, (actually 1051 if you click on the NW region) why would the coldest anomalies be displaced so far to the east of the high? I see it has the high in Wyoming, but the core of the cold in Missouri. I figured with a high over Wyoming that would put Texas in a pretty good position at seeing the brunt of the coldest air as it usually slides down the Rockies.

The trough out west pumps ridging ahead of temporarily. That kind of upper pattern aloft the models likes to slide it east. I wouldn't lose any sleep over that yet being a 10 day forecast and we just went through a period where the behavior of the synoptic pattern matters greatly with diverging guidance. Once that trough kicks our or is faster, it will pour cold into it.

Happy new year guys. I got down to a balmy 9 degrees this morning. We have the cold air, but the precip or setup to deliver it has been lacking. Do you think that will change for us ntxw? Something seems a bit off still imo

[stormlover2013]

Rgem still shows snow in se tx

[megsy]

I have no idea what you're talking about. I LIVE for cold and icy conditions! It's 33 at my house now and I have the AC on full-blast trying to cool the house down. Hope the colder air gets here soon.

By the way, I grew up in Lafayette from the late '50s through the '70s. Lived at 213 Stephanie Ave in Bendel Gardens.

That’s crazy - I was driving by that address all week going back and forth to my brother’s house! He lives on Beverly near Stephanie.

[weatherdude1108]

Got down to 23 here this morning. It's a balmy 31 at 4pm. Been slow dripping my outdoor faucets since 1am last night, just in case.

[Ralph's Weather]

Made it down to 18 this morning. Up to 32 now. Should see teens tonight, maybe sub 15 if winds go calm.