Texas Winter 2021-2022

[jaguars_22]

I believe you guys up north will be iced in like WXMAN said. But I also believe that us down south are in for at least some freezing rain too after Thursday through Saturday. We could even see some sleet and snow possibly south of San Antonio.

[ElectricStorm]

Winter storm watch here just got upgraded to a warning to take effect at 9pm tonight. Says 3-5 inches expected across the area.

[wxman22]

For those along the coast, were not out of the woods yet, as models are starting to pick up on the Subtropical jet bringing more moisture overnight Thursday.I don't like how a aggressive the WRF models are either with the freezing line...

[lukem]

I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

Not saying you are wrong because you are a pro met and I am an amateur, but the GFS and NAM match the temps you quoted above for this time period. They don’t have the frigid arctic air entering North Dakota until tomorrow morning.

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has 6-8 inches of snowfall for Central Oklahoma & 7-9 inches in Tulsa, & that's only the 10:1 Ratio snowfall

[Iceresistance]

Might be in the long range, but Mid-February might rival February 2021 with a HUGE Storm! Major Sleet Storm along & South of I-20 all the way to Southern Texas, north of I-20 is a major snowstorm up to I-40.

[jaguars_22]

Wxman22 that upper low that hangs back on some models could bring more precip to south texas as well. Everything is up in the air at this point until it happens.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning here 4-6 locally up to 8 along and north of 44

[Quixotic]

It doesn't have to be crosspolar cold. The cold I'm seeing is more than enough.

[ElectricStorm]

I could obviously end up wrong, but I think there's going to be several areas here in OK that end up with several inches more than the 3-5 range. Just seems like all the models are showing more than that.

[wxman57]

I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

Not saying you are wrong because you are a pro met and I am an amateur, but the GFS and NAM match the temps you quoted above for this time period. They don’t have the frigid arctic air entering North Dakota until tomorrow morning.

I'm just making an observation of the current temperatures. Of course, the temperature discontinuity along the front will tighten up over the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

For those along the coast, were not out of the woods yet, as models are starting to pick up on the Subtropical jet bringing more moisture overnight Thursday.I don't like how a aggressive the WRF models are either with the freezing line...

https://i.ibb.co/SQrHB6B/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/qM8H9hF/gem-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-12.png

https://i.ibb.co/H2G8f72/icon-2022-02-01-12-Z-072-32-389-261-133-27-333-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

The ICON is one of the colder models, similar to the Canadian. Can't absolutely rule it out, but I think it's too cold with our temps. Time to plot all the 12Z model forecasts for Houston temps...

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS keeping North Texas below freezing for over 100 hrs starting Wednesday night....as wxman57 has mentioned, plan to be stuck wherever you end up until Monday particularly where frz rn/sleet occurs



Showing over 1/2" ice, 1" sleet and 3" snow for DFW. If that comes anywhere close to verifying, the metroplex is basically shut down for several days

[dhweather]

From the 12Z GFS - Looks like we're in for a period of 4-5 days below freezing.

As wxman57 noted, be prepared to be stuck at home for a few days, and be prepared for power outages.

[Ntxw]

Looking at 850mb obs this morning. The 'colder' GFS was a little too slow a few days ago with it compared to real time. This is air above. I think that warm nose modeled is going to shrink/erode quickly.

[Tammie]

Looking at 850mb obs this morning. The 'colder' GFS was a little too slow a few days ago with it compared to real time. This is air above. I think that warm nose modeled is going to shrink/erode quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/VtOe2qY.png

https://i.imgur.com/bzH07qh.png

Which will mean higher precipitation totals if that happens?

[Quixotic]

Initial front is making it's way through Panhandle now.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS Meteogram for the big airport

[Quixotic]

Starting with my first freezing line observation in Northwestern Kansas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I always say, "look at the source region of the airmass". Well, looking at the source region I don't really see any bitterly-cold Arctic air. I see "normal" Canadian air. There's a cold front extending from northern Wisconsin southwest through Kansas City and Wichita to south of Lubbock, but the temperature drop behind it is not very significant. 41 in Amarillo and 29 in southern Nebraska? Only mid-teens in south Dakota. One below-zero temp in northwestern North Dakota and -10 to -15 in Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't extreme cold (well, for me it is). This is one of the reasons the ice storm will be so bad. The air won't be so cold that moisture will be limited. Plenty of moisture in sub-freezing air makes for a bad ice storm. Be careful up there.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

Reminds me of a classic Nino ice storm.