Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

i ment from what i can tell it seems it is... anyone else wanna chime in?

[txtiff]

i ment from what i can tell it seems it is... anyone else wanna chime in?

Great!!!! The further south the better!!!

[msstateguy83]

south on bigger snow in nw tx... but looking further still doesnt look to exciting for dfw area... looking into it more now..

[msstateguy83]

[srainhoutx]

Some NCEP house keeping issues regarding the NAM tonight...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0141Z WED JAN 27 2010
00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
KPP/78970 - 10159
MZT/76458 - 10142
FFC/72215 - 10142
YYR/71816 - SHORT TO 803MB
YYQ/71913 - PURGED ALL HGTS AND TEMPS...HIGH AND WARM
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[Portastorm]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

[txtiff]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

I hate to admitt it but I have no idea what you just said.

[Peanut432]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

Does that mean it weakening? Sorry guys I'm a rookie

[txtiff]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

Does that mean it weakening? Sorry guys I'm a rookie[/quote

Glad to see I'm not the only one who doesnt understand!!!

[Portastorm]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

I hate to admitt it but I have no idea what you just said.

Sorry. What I was trying to say is that the 0z NAM model running right now. I am comparing it to the 12z run from earlier today. In the earlier run, the upper-level trough at the 500mb level looked like a giant "U" over New Mexico and West Texas. In the run going now, it looks more elongated and stretched southwest to northeast. Below is a comparison with first the 12z then the 0z.

[msstateguy83]

i think the wichita falls area points north is gonna get nailed....

[srainhoutx]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

Does that mean it weakening? Sorry guys I'm a rookie

Not really. The Polar Vortex is holding on and reamins strong. Things appear right on schedule within the 48 hour range where the NAM is at it's best IMHO. There are several shortwaves showing up around the Western side of the PV in the Plains. Surface low now S of LA. Maybe some subtle changes.

[txtiff]

PORTASTORM-I do see what you mean now. How will this make any of the impacts different?

[Portastorm]

I do see what you mean now. How will this make any of the impacts different?

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure. There's still plenty of vorticity (storminess in the upper levels) to create winter mayhem from the Tx Panhandle into Oklahoma.

[msstateguy83]

portastorm are you with me on that my area might get nailed again?

[Weatherdude20]

portastorm are you with me on that my area might get nailed again?

I definatly am.

[Peanut432]

portastorm are you with me on that my area might get nailed again?

I definatly am.

Childress? Or is that to far west

[txtiff]

My mother lives in Lawton, Oklahoma. I have been telling her that she should be prepared. As for me......nothing as usual

[katheria]

I'm sorry but I don't see a further south track here. I see an UL trough that gets more elongated (SW to NE) than what was progged earlier today.

Does that mean it weakening? Sorry guys I'm a rookie[/quote

Glad to see I'm not the only one who doesnt understand!!!

count me in also, still learning after a few years of reading this forum and books..

one thing i noticed is todays High Temp did not make it to the forecast of a high of 63
which i know is a general High temp in the DFW area.

My weather station only made it to a High of 57 today....
DFW shows a high of 59 today instead of the 63 forecast..

low is forecast to be 45 tonight, im already at 45.2 right now...

if the temps are a few degrees cooler, could this make a major difference in the precip type we get ?

[Portastorm]

portastorm are you with me on that my area might get nailed again?

Oh yeah ... I do think y'all are gonna get hammered. But I suspect you may have a little more mixed precip issues to deal with than the Christmas Eve storm which was primarily snow. I haven't seen anything in the models or in the forecast discussions that lead me to believe that you WON'T get blasted. Heck man ... enjoy it! I'm jealous.