Texas Winter 2013-2014

[JDawg512]

I'm still bankin on winter precipitation in Austin and some of the things I have recently looked at could prolong the precipitation.

[TexasF6]

Rain already showing up on radar.....I do not buy NWS selling above freezing temps in Austin Friday, I highly doubt with snow/precip/cloud cover & cold air advection we get above freezing at all.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Lake Charles issues Winter Weather Advisory for their entire forecasting area.

[DougNTexas]

I see snow in North Texas on the radar. I don't know if it is reaching the ground thou. It is 41 here just west of Henderson. Where is all that cold air at?

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance has trended in favor of a fairly signifanct Winter Weather event for SE Texas. WPC Senior Forecaster Paul Kocin has placed the Houston Metro Area with a 10% chance of seeing up to 1/4 inch of Ice that would create major travel and transportation issues -vs- powerline problem during the day on Friday. Light snow may develop across portions of Central Texas and extended as far S as the I-10 Corridor. Light freezing rain/sleet is likely further S from just N of Brownsville to the Coastal Counties along the Middle and Upper Texas Coast and extend further E into SW Louisiana and possibly as far E as Baton Rogue. TXDOT has spent the night deicing area bridges/overpasses/flyovers, but travel during the late night hours of tonight extending into Friday afternoon/evening should be discouraged and may be very dangerous. Stay tuned to future updates. Winter Storm Watches may be replaced with Winter Storm Warnings today and Winter Weather Advisories where lesser amounts may be expected in this evovling Winter Storm Situation.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi issues Winter Storm Warning for Goliad, Refugio and Victoria Counties.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Winter Storm Warning for entire forecast area of SE Texas. Freezing rain/sleet and snow are possible across the Region tonight into tomorrow.

[jerryh421]

How does it look for my area so far?

[gto67]

Colorado county upgraded to winter storm waring starting at 9pm today.

[jerryh421]

I wonder if the school districts are considering closing for friday. I am excited to see how this all plays out, I just hope the northern areas of SE texas will have enough moisture to work with!

[perk]

The school districts are sometimes slow on making decisions on closings,but the fact that the NWS has hoisted warnings for a large portion of southeast Texas gives them the info they need early.Lets hope that helps them make their decisions in a timely manner.

[Portastorm]

EWX has placed much of its CWA under a Winter Weather Advisory and cancelled the Winter Storm Watch.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BY MID
MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS ABOVE
THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO
DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW TONIGHT.
ALONG THE I-35 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS...A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH A TRACE TO ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO AND I-10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO MAY SEE ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN JUST BEFORE
ENDING AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING.


TXZ171>173-183>190-232030-
/O.CAN.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140123T1800Z-140124T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS CANCELLED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

* TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

TXZ191>194-206>208-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0000Z-140124T1800Z/
HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...
GIDDINGS...NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED SURFACES THIS EVENING
THEN UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

TXZ202>205-209-217>225-228-232030-
/O.UPG.KEWX.WS.A.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.140124T0600Z-140124T1800Z/
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...
SAN ANTONIO...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...PEARSALL...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...CUERO...
HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
625 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A TRACE TO
ONE QUARTER INCH OF SNOW OR TRACE ICE ACCUMULATION ON EXPOSED
SURFACES. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ICY ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

[wxman57]

Can't check model data too well on my iPad here in Biloxi (Beau Rivage). Looks like freezing rain mixed with sleet for SE TX tomorrow morning. At the very least, elevated roadways will likely ice up. I'm reasonably sure schools will announce closures this afternoon. Better not delay my return flight out of New Orleans at 2:40pm tomorrow.

Heading to Pascagoula this morning then to Pensacola and back to Biloxi late afternoon. Meeting in Baton Rouge 9am tomorrow. No luck escaping the cold.

[Rgv20]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
420 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN BONE CHILLING TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH TO
PLUMMET THE FEEL LIKE TEMPERATURES BELOW 30 DEGREES.


TXZ248>257-231900-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WC.Y.0002.140124T0600Z-140124T2100Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
420 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM
CST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES

* TIMING...WINDS CHILLS TO FALL BELOW 30 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE AT VERY LOW VALUES THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACT...HYPOTHERMIA COULD DEVELOP OVER A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
IF PERSONS AND ANIMALS THAT ARE NOT PROTECTED. LAYERS OF
CLOTHING IS THE BEST PROTECTION IF YOU HAVE TO VENTURE OUTSIDE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE STRESSED OR
DAMAGED BY THE COLD WINDS AND SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND 25 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR 2 OR MORE HOURS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS...WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR
GREATER.

&&

$$




Early Morning Discussion out of NWS Brownsville

TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH 18Z THEN REMAINING STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TO OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT FALLING TO MINIMUMS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON AS
THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. THERE REMAINS A QUANDARY ON IF
TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS
WILL PLAY A FACTOR ON THE WINTRY WEATHER PRECIPITATION HAZARDS.
EVERYTHING IS POINTING TOWARDS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF SARITA TO RIO GRANDE CITY LINE. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...ALBEIT 1 TO 3
DEGREES...ANY ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH THIS MENTION WILL
NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR
THAT MATTER HOWEVER A DROP OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES COULD CHANGE THE
STORY WITH LATER SHIFTS KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING
WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

[Portastorm]

Can't check model data too well on my iPad here in Biloxi (Beau Rivage). Looks like freezing rain mixed with sleet for SE TX tomorrow morning. At the very least, elevated roadways will likely ice up. I'm reasonably sure schools will announce closures this afternoon. Better not delay my return flight out of New Orleans at 2:40pm tomorrow.

Heading to Pascagoula this morning then to Pensacola and back to Biloxi late afternoon. Meeting in Baton Rouge 9am tomorrow. No luck escaping the cold.

Safe travels back home, sir. We'll have the winter weather waiting for you!

[perk]

Can't check model data too well on my iPad here in Biloxi (Beau Rivage). Looks like freezing rain mixed with sleet for SE TX tomorrow morning. At the very least, elevated roadways will likely ice up. I'm reasonably sure schools will announce closures this afternoon. Better not delay my return flight out of New Orleans at 2:40pm tomorrow.

Heading to Pascagoula this morning then to Pensacola and back to Biloxi late afternoon. Meeting in Baton Rouge 9am tomorrow. No luck escaping the cold.

Safe travels back home, sir. We'll have the winter weather waiting for you!

It looks like our friend heat miser is waving the white flag on this event happening.It's about time the cold mongers get a win.

[TexasF6]

Porta, what are our chances for warning upgrade later? I do not trust their conservative forecasts!

[Portastorm]

For those of us in the general Austin metro area, I want to note that both the 0z Euro and CMC were a bit "wetter" for us than their previous runs. It should also be noted that the 6z GFS almost doubled our QPF values and have us at .21" for the event. It doesn't sound like much but even 0.05" of freezing drizzle/rain can create travel misery on our bridges/overpasses/exposed objects.

This is an interesting trend and should be closely watched today ... especially with the 12z models.

[Portastorm]

Porta, what are our chances for warning upgrade later? I do not trust their conservative forecasts!

Can't blame them (believe it or not) for playing this one safe. I still think it's a complex, tricky forecast and a situation outside their normal realm of forecasting. That being said and given my previous post, it wouldn't surprise me if we get upgraded to some sort of Winter Storm Warning later today or even this evening. They'll wait and see how the event develops along with short-range models. But the qpf amounts and P-type issues remain uncertain.

Been talking to the venerable srainhoutx this morning and we both agree that this one is far from certain. Stay tuned!

[srainhoutx]

Detailed Update from Jeff:

***Impactful winter storm event heading for SE TX.***

Winter Storm Warning in effect from 900pm tonight until 900am Friday for all counties.

Arctic cold front is moving southward through north TX this morning and will move off the coast early this afternoon. Initial wind shift will drop temperatures into the 40’s across the area before a secondary surge of much colder air arrives around dark this evening which is currently moving southward over OK and KS where temps are in the 10’s and 1’s. Short term models suggest northern tier counties could be very near freezing prior to sunset this evening so we could start to see some changeover of rain to freezing rain after 300pm in the College Station to Huntsville areas…but think roads will be ok until after sunset and then it is going to go downhill very quickly and spread southward across much of the area. Meso models are in decent agreement on breaking out light rain this afternoon from north to south across the region as lifting of a moistening air mass over the frontal dome occurs. Temperatures should fall to freezing at most locations by 300-400am Friday morning and the recovery on Friday will be very slow with temperatures not likely reaching freezing until around 1000am to noon if then. Warming on Friday will depend on the amount of precipitation that continues across the area.

P-type:

After reviewing the short term guidance forecast soundings for IAH, VCT, and CLL I see no big reason to change the P-type thinking of mostly freezing rain and sleet with mixed snow. Interestingly CLL soundings do fall almost entirely below freezing by 600am Friday morning which would suggest a changeover to mostly snow. Sounding is also saturated up to around 15,000ft but then dries aloft. Think the northern counties will start off as freezing rain early this evening then go over to a freezing rain and sleet mix then to a sleet and snow mix by Friday morning. Further south including metro Houston and the US 59 corridor expect rain to change to freezing rain around midnight and then a freezing rain and sleet mixture Friday morning. Toward the coast mainly just freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. This continues to look like an ice event over a snow event…but there will be plenty of mixing of precipitation across the region as thermal profiles change throughout the event.

Accumulations:

A little more concerned with accumulations this morning as the intruding dry air from the NE looks less than before and liquid QPF numbers have increased some overnight especially on the NAM model. Would like to see 00Z (600pm) soundings this evening to see how they are matching with the meso model trends…but I do not have that luxury 12 hours before they are launched. Upstream air mass is very cold and dry so I will leave that door open to a little more drier air getting in here than the models are showing and keeping accumulation amounts in the .10 to .20 range. Should there be less dry air accumulation amounts could be closer to .25 to .30 inches which becomes a little more concerning with respect to power outages and tree limbs. Amounts look greatest along the US 59 from Houston SW to Victoria and then southward toward the coast where the moisture will be greatest and the dry sub cloud layer least….or Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, and Victoria Counties.

Other item to consider is the amount of sleet mixing in which tends to lessen accumulations, but forms a more solid and crusty layer of ice similar to what happened in N TX in early December 2013. More snow would greatly increase accumulations into the ½ to 1.5 inch range…but this looks unlikely at the moment and if it occurred would be mainly NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe. Think any snow will be very wet and will likely only add to the icing accumulation.

Impacts:

Ice accumulation on bridge and overpasses looks likely tonight into much of Friday producing extremely dangerous travel conditions. TXDOT crews have been applying anti-ice chemical on freeways overnight. Extreme caution should be used at all bridges, overpasses, connector ramps, and flyovers after dark tonight through all day on Friday. Additional roadway treatments will likely be needed tonight into Friday. If you must travel…take surface streets with as few bridges as possible.

Airports will require de-icing operations of aircraft by this evening so expect long delays. Ice accumulation on aircraft control surfaces at departure gates and on runways is likely with heavy icing up through 5,000 ft in rapidly changing precipitation mixture through ascent.

Still think power outages will not be a big problem, but we are starting to get near the threshold on accumulation where the area could see some outages. Typically 1/4th of an inch of ice is the threshold to start to see power problems and ½ of an inch is when things really start to get bad. These outages would likely be focused north of I-10 in the pine forest areas which have the most surface area for ice to accumulate. Winds will also be gusty in the 20-30mph range which will add more weight and pressure to ice covered trees and power lines.



Next update: early afternoon