Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

Joe B has this for the entire state of Texas

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1488563857266286596

[orangeblood]

Latest SREF Probability Model showing highly likely > 1" QPF amounts across a wide swath of NT with majority of this frozen...wide spread broken tree limbs could become a major problem if that warm nose stays intact long.

Another item to put on your check list - DO NOT PARK CARS UNDER LARGE TREES in your neighborhoods

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has me in a solid chance of 12 inches of snow Thursday

[Texas Snow]

DFW NWS has a timeline graphic where they show ice starting around 6pm in the metroplex. The metroplex is massive so I guess we assume the 6pm time is the northwest part of the CWA. Any signs of the timing becoming earlier than their graphic shows? Just wondering how close it may get to a very messy rush hour and school day ending.

I had this just to track the freeze line and thus onset of icing near me. Of course it may move in a little more quickly as shallow arctic air often does, but here are some model trends. This is in far SW Collin county (near the Collin Denton Dallas county lines) so adjust from there depending on your location.

Hope this helps.

[Quixotic]

Most models seem to be hanging on stubbornly to that warm nose.

[orangeblood]

9z SREF has me in a solid chance of 12 inches of snow Thursday

??? I see solid 6" but not for 12"

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has me in a solid chance of 12 inches of snow Thursday

??? I see solid 6" but not for 12"

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/scentus/snow_ge_12/1643727600/1644030000-xSkPvHKLHXU.png

I have College of DuPage, it may be showing it differently than WeatherBell (Also, DuPage is the only free site that has SREF)


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/1-Foot-Snowfall-Chances.png

[orangeblood]

DFW NWS has a timeline graphic where they show ice starting around 6pm in the metroplex. The metroplex is massive so I guess we assume the 6pm time is the northwest part of the CWA. Any signs of the timing becoming earlier than their graphic shows? Just wondering how close it may get to a very messy rush hour and school day ending.

I had this just to track the freeze line and thus onset of icing near me. Of course it may move in a little more quickly as shallow arctic air often does, but here are some model trends. This is in far SW Collin county (near the Collin Denton Dallas county lines) so adjust from there depending on your location.

Hope this helps.

https://i.imgur.com/cpUz9fd.jpeg

Great data Texas Snow!!

Crown it already, KING GFS!

[Sambucol]

Latest SREF Probability Model showing highly likely > 1" QPF amounts across a wide swath of NT with majority of this frozen...wide spread broken tree limbs could become a major problem if that warm nose stays intact long.

Another item to put on your check list - DO NOT PARK CARS UNDER LARGE TREES in your neighborhoods

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/qpf_ge_1/1643727600/1644030000-i98bfSJKxd8.png

Is all of that frozen?

[wxman57]

Latest SREF Probability Model showing highly likely > 1" QPF amounts across a wide swath of NT with majority of this frozen...wide spread broken tree limbs could become a major problem if that warm nose stays intact long.

Another item to put on your check list - DO NOT PARK CARS UNDER LARGE TREES in your neighborhoods

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/qpf_ge_1/1643727600/1644030000-i98bfSJKxd8.png

I remember when Hilda came through south Louisiana in 1964, my father was worried about tree branches falling on our boat. He moved the boat to the other side of our house to avoid the trees. However, our big TV antenna (on a 30 foot pole) fell on the boat. This was pre-cable TV.

[Iceresistance]

ABC13 Houston posted this video

[youtube]https://youtu.be/mA1pwlpdpog[/youtube]

[drred4]

Latest SREF Probability Model showing highly likely > 1" QPF amounts across a wide swath of NT with majority of this frozen...wide spread broken tree limbs could become a major problem if that warm nose stays intact long.

Another item to put on your check list - DO NOT PARK CARS UNDER LARGE TREES in your neighborhoods

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/qpf_ge_1/1643727600/1644030000-i98bfSJKxd8.png

looks the Aggie Dome is holding strong per that donut hole over Brazos county

[orangeblood]

Latest SREF Probability Model showing highly likely > 1" QPF amounts across a wide swath of NT with majority of this frozen...wide spread broken tree limbs could become a major problem if that warm nose stays intact long.

Another item to put on your check list - DO NOT PARK CARS UNDER LARGE TREES in your neighborhoods

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/sref-all-members/tx/qpf_ge_1/1643727600/1644030000-i98bfSJKxd8.png

Is all of that frozen?

That's the most important question the NWS office is attempting to answer/project ATM....after looking over the latest model suites, I'd take a guess that 60-80% of it is! The heaviest QPF should be on the front end, just tough to figure out exact timing of transition

[Cerlin]

I’m seriously thinking this could be an overperforming event, especially for me in Central Oklahoma. We’re already seeing models initializing too warm and the cold front moving in faster, likely eliminating most impacts of a warm nose up here and probably increasing the chance for snow across DFW. Showers overnight are supposed to end right before the freezing line gets here but given that the front is about a 1-2 hours ahead of schedule, i’d be inclined to believe that the rain would end as freezing rain or ice, giving Oklahoma a head start. Finally, the heaviest snowfall rates are supposed to be when temperatures are below 20 degrees which would support 12:1 or even 14:1 snowfall rates. Given the huge swatch of QPF over our region, it wouldn’t surprise me to see parts of Oklahoma with over 12 inches and parts of NTX approaching 4-6 inches of snow on top of ice. Obviously I’m basing this off of my own premonitions and analysis, meaning this isn’t a definite forecast nor should it be taken as one, but the ingredients are ripe for an event that over exceeds the forecasted totals. I’m just hoping that that doesn’t lead to higher ice/sleet totals across NTX and CTX because that could get damaging.

[Iceresistance]

I’m seriously thinking this could be an overperforming event, especially for me in Central Oklahoma. We’re already seeing models initializing too warm and the cold from moving in faster, likely eliminating most impacts of a warm nose up here and probably increasing the chance for snow across DFW. Showers overnight are supposed to end right before the freezing line gets here but given that the front is about a 1-2 hours ahead of schedule, i’d be inclined to believe that the rain would end as freezing rain or ice, giving Oklahoma a head start. Finally, the heaviest snowfall rates are supposed to be when temperatures are below 20 degrees which would support 12:1 or even 14:1 snowfall rates. Given the huge swatch of QPF over our region, it wouldn’t surprise me to see parts of Oklahoma with over 12 inches and parts of NTX approaching 4-6 inches of snow on top of ice. Obviously I’m basing this off of my own premonitions and analysis, meaning this isn’t a definite forecast nor should it be taken as one, but the ingredients are ripe for an event that over exceeds the forecasted totals. I’m just hoping that that doesn’t lead to higher ice/sleet totals across NTX and CTX because that could get damaging.

The SREF has been noting that lately, Mean Snowfall is 7-9 inches at it's peak. (Likely 10:1 Ratio snowfall)

[Brent]

WeatherBug has me near a foot

I don't expect this to verify but just to see it this close

Though I will say I think someone in this area will get to double digits

[Iceresistance]

WeatherBug has me near a foot

I don't expect this to verify but just to see it this close

https://i.ibb.co/GP4cQRF/Screenshot-20220201-135337.png

What about TWC?

[Brent]

WeatherBug has me near a foot

I don't expect this to verify but just to see it this close

https://i.ibb.co/GP4cQRF/Screenshot-20220201-135337.png

What about TWC?

Hasn't budged if you add it together it's close to a foot 1-3 tomorrow 5-8 tomorrow night then a couple on Thursday

[wxman57]

ABC13 Houston posted this video

https://youtu.be/mA1pwlpdpog

"ARTIC" front? Where is the "Artic"? Thumbnail "oops".

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has gone crazy with 9-11 inches of snow for my area, Tulsa gets 10-14 inches, & OKC get 7-10 inches


Highly depends on the highest QPF & snowfall area.