Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely beautiful pictures Andy.

The sky was incredible today.

[andycottle]

Randy...Very cool shots of the swelling cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds! Really cool! In fact...'pic 326', looks pretty neat too, not only that, but think maybe me and you shot the same cloud...just at a different time. Here`s one of my pics to show you. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

And here`s the rest of the pics, if you all didn`t get too see them yet. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... 16&.src=ph


-- Andy

[andycottle]

Hmmm....doesn`t look like that CZ will be coming my way anytime soon.:

[andycottle]

Sure wish this active CZ was on top of my area..! Bet there somes pretty hefty rain and small hail.

Andy
King - 142
Seattle NWS Weather spotter

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I feel pretty bad about our fight last night...No hard feelings.

For the second day in a row Covington faired pretty well! Today we had a very heavy shower with some ice in it and one clap of thunder. The rain fell so hard that the streets were like running rivers of water. Unfortunately, I was just coming home and did not have my camera to catch any of the action. The clouds were so surreal that I wish I could have caught those! Our temperature range today was 56 - 33, so still a healthy minus departure from normal on the average temp.

I was quite surprised when I looked at the models this evening and saw how much rain they are showing for late tomorrow night through much of Saturday. That will undoubtedly put Sea - Tac above normal for the entire month of April! Yet another impressive pool of cold air follows that front, and then we finally see some closer to normal temperatures (maybe even above normal) by the middle of next week. The GFS still wants to bring another trough in here to finish out the month, so the warmer weather may be short lived.

The MJO is still in a phase that favors below normal temps, overall, for the next two weeks or more. It has not moved any closer toward switching to a positive phase over the past 5 days. Very strong positive and negative anomolies are shown in the MJO index which means there is a good chance of large temperature anomolies in the middle latitudes.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... never any hard feelings. Just lively debate!!

The 06Z run of the GFS continues to show a WET weekend. After that... it is even warmer than the previous runs for the last 10 days of April.

R-Dub... you will be on the lake by the end of next week. We will likely see 70 degrees in many places.

[andycottle]

Good morning all! A rainy morning here with a temp of 39 here at 7:42a.m Well it seems that PSCZhas come over my area, but looking at WeatherTap radar, it appears to moving back Northward. I have recieved .16" from the CZ so far this morning. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hi all. GFS still showing what looks too be a rather wet weekend as a cool and showery 528DM low come through our area. 850MB temps not all that cool, but are around -3C. So if the airmass becomes moderatly unstable behind the front, we may see some thunder shower activity. After this weekend, looks like some nice weather along with milder temps through about the the following weekend. Only one exception is maybe a few spotty showers on wednesday as a system tries to ride over the ridge of high pressure.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

I'm looking forward to next week...mostly sunny conditions with temperatures in the mid 60s. It will feel like February again!! lol.

This weekend's storm is powerful. Expect very wet conditions Friday thru Saturday with a decent trough hanging over Western Washington on Sunday. The northwest interior and north WA coast may experience marginal high winds with a moderate southeast sucker. NOTHING for the main Puget Sound...this type of situation does not impact us. But a good small craft advisory will be around this weekend.

Then next week a pattern change begins...a ridge starts to build and 500 mb heights rise dramatically beginning Tuesday. By next weekend, some places could approach 70F. Ahhhhhh....

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...I am a tad surprised that you asked TT if Seattle has ever had snow in April. I answered that before. I do not lie about things like that.

Here is a list of official snowfall in Seattle in the month of April.

1895 - 1.0.............1936 - 0.9

1900 - 0.6.............1968 - 0.5

1920 - 2.4.............1972 - 2.3

1921 - 0.5.............1975 - 0.2

1924 - 1.5

1927 - 0.2

The outlying areas get it more often, of course.

[snow_wizzard]

I think some of you who are expecting a long period of above normal temperatures for the final third of this month are going to be disappointed. The GFS continues to show that troughs will periodically move through for the remainder of the month. Every run shows a strong trough somewhere in the 10 - 15 day period. This one here looks particularly cold.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... p_288m.htm

Very strong onshore flow and low thickness values. The new 12z run actually shows us in a trough at day 7. This looks like it could be one of those things where the models will keep trending weaker and more short lived on any ridging as time goes on. We could see a high of 65 sometime next week, but even that is not a slam dunk.

TT...I agree that some recent April's have had some cold weather, but I think this one will win because of persistence. I am betting on anywhere from 20 - 23 days with below normal temps this month. That is a pretty good run! Even yesterday Sea - Tac averaged 5 degrees below normal. Once again, the fact that we are having this cold of an April after a very warm March is the most intriguing. Let's just wait and see....

[snow_wizzard]

For those of you who missed my pix from the snow pellet showers on Tuesday, here they are.

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/graupel.jpg

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/graupel2.jpg

They were buried in the middle of my "debate" with TT the other day!

[W13]

Great pics Andy and snow_wizzard!

I'm going to upload the pictures I got during the storm in Covington.

[snow_wizzard]

Those pix are awesome Andy. I may download one or two!

[W13]

Here are the pictures I took yesterday when Covington was getting pounded with heavy rain, wind, etc.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/xbmedia/album?.dir=/2f20

[snow_wizzard]

Justin....that second one kind of sums it up! That cloud was BLACK!

Looking at the 12z GFS...I like what I see. A lot of rain and then another round of unseasonably cold air. This new run shows a short break around day 5, and then another trough drops down for days 6 and 7. The cold keeps getting extended. It looks possible that we may get through 7 more days without one above normal day! I love this 850mb temp map. It shows most of the west getting near summer warmth, while we freeze our butts off. Life is good!

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/60h/avn_850_60h.html

[W13]

Looking at the latest NWS radar return, it looks like some residual showers are starting to fire up down near Olympia. Just something to keep an eye on ...

[TT-SEA]

The GFS will come around. It is slow with pattern changes.

The new ECMWF shows a very nice ridge starting in the middle of next week for some 60+ degree weather and sunshine. A few locations will likely get into the 70's at some point next week.

We had 60 degrees yesterday at our house under a COLD trough. We can probably hit 70 degrees under a ridge!!

We are at the end of this active period. And that is really what this has been... just a balancing out of the atmosphere. After being stuck under high pressure for two months...we were due for a period of active weather. It has lasted one month.

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love this...

The latest ECMWF for next Thursday. 500mb heights approaching 570DM, some light offshore winds and sunshine.

[snow_wizzard]

I certainly admit there is a lot of uncertainty after day 6 or so. It was indeed amazing how the high temps were able to get that high (in some places) yesterday, with such a cold air mass.