Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[txtiff]

Katheria....where are you located?

[Weatherdude20]

Childress will be very hard it, expect 1/4"-1/5" of Ice accumulation, and on top of that 3-6+ Inches of snow on top of that ice glazing, along with 20-25 mph sustained winds.

So, yes; I say Childress will be very hard hit, and it will be a very dangerous situation for that region of Texas and Oklahoma.

T

he following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

edited by vbhoutex to add disclaimer

[katheria]

Katheria....where are you located?

Garland TX almost in Rowlett 1/8 Mile LOL

[txtiff]

Katheria....where are you located?

Garland TX almost in Rowlett 1/8 Mile LOL

Not far from you at all.

[srainhoutx]

I just want to make a point again for those outside of the Panhandle and N TX/OK regions. There appears to be some strong potential for severe weather during the overnight hours of Thursday into Friday. Folks further E need to be aware as well in LA and MS.

[Portastorm]

My other thought after a quick review of the 0z NAM ... it seems to be holding back the UL trough more so than the 12z run. Maybe yet a little slower?

[txtiff]

I just want to make a point again for those outside of the Panhandle and N TX/OK regions. There appears to be some strong potential for severe weather during the overnight hours of Thursday into Friday. Folks further E need to be aware as well in LA and MS.

Thanks!!!! We just had a tornado touch down not too far from here last week in Canton. A little too close for me.

[srainhoutx]

I've seen no post of this so here is what the HPC Winter Storm forecaster wrote this afternoon...

...FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TN VLY...
THE INGREDIENTS ARE SHAPING UP FOR A WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM
ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY... STRETCHING WEST TO EAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS AN IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE... WHICH IS ARRIVING INTO SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA LATE
TODAY/EARLY WED AND WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON D1/WED... THE MAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS TERRAIN... BROAD SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD YIELD HVY OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SRN WASATCH/SAN JUAN MTNS AND NRN MOGOLLON RIM.

THE ACTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON D2/THURS AND D3/FRI... AS THE
DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE EJECTS INTO WEST TX AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
NOT ONLY A TREMENDOUS INFLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BUT A
MAMMOTH ARCTIC VORTEX WILL DIG TOWARD THE GRT LAKES AND DRIVE AN
EXTREMELY COLD DENSE AIR MASS SOUTH. THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY AND BECOME LOCKED INTO PLACE
WITH THE TREMENDOUS CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EAST. THE
RESULTANT WILL BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL AND ICE. NOW THIS
SOUNDS RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD AND CERTAIN BUT IS ANYTHING BUT
THAT DUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD.

FOR D2/THURS... THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ALIGNED IN 1.5 INCH PWS
RACING NORTH AND OVERRUNNING AN AWESOME WARM FRONT... SETTING UP
FROM NRN TX INTO OK... INTO THE COLD SECTOR. THIS COLD SECTOR
SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN AS MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED 500
MB LOW FORMING OVER ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. HPC GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AND 09Z SREF MEAN FOR QPF
AMOUNTS AND THE CRITICAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR HVY SNOWFALL FROM
ERN NM/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EAST THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
INTO MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL OK OR RIGHT ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF I40 FROM
ABQ TO OKC. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS HVY SNOW AXIS... A
TRANSITION ZONE WILL SET UP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HVY ICING OF A
.25 INCH OR MORE FROM CDS/SPS ENEWRD MLC/FSM/HOT.

THEN ON D3/FRI... THIS ENTIRE SHIELD OF PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM AND THIS IS WHERE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
DIVERGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS NOT ONLY THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION BUT HOW MUCH THE NRN STREAM KEEPS THE SRN STREAM
SUPPRESSED. AFTER MUCH COLLAB BETWEEN FCST DESKS HERE AT HPC...
THE 12Z GFS WAS USED AS A BASE AND BLENDED WITH THE MORE
SUPPRESSED/DRIER 12Z ECMWF. THIS STILL MEANS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS SERN TX AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
FUNNELING NORTH A PLETHORA OF GULF MOISTURE TO OVERRUN INTO THE
EXTREMELY DENSE COLD SECTOR. RIGHT NOW THE AXIS OF HVY SNOWFALL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM OK ENEWRD THROUGH NRN AR/SRN MO AND INTO THE
TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER NW AR OR IN
VICINITY OF AN 850 MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MAIN
SURFACE WAVE. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS HVY SNOW AXIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY ICING FROM ERN OK/CENTRAL AR
INTO MUCH OF TN. THIS FCST IS STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE... ESPECIALLY
ON D3... BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CLASSIC
SRN STREAM SYSTEM.


MUSHER

[srainhoutx]

A recap of the radar sim from the NAM...rough time for a lot of real estate...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ntxw]

Transition storms are always nasty yuck much like early spring storms.

[Portastorm]

Alrightee ... I know y'all have been staying up for the 0z GFS. C'mon now, admit it!

Well ... the run has started. Let the analyzing begin!

[Ntxw]

Alrightee ... I know y'all have been staying up for the 0z GFS. C'mon now, admit it!

Well ... the run has started. Let the analyzing begin!

I don't think there will be any drastic differences. Models have been somewhat consistent so far.

[katheria]

Alrightee ... I know y'all have been staying up for the 0z GFS. C'mon now, admit it!

Well ... the run has started. Let the analyzing begin!

LOL how did you know ?

still learning thou, would love your thoughts hehehe

[Portastorm]

Thru 36 hours ... 0z GFS compared to the 12z GFS from earlier today ... surface low is 2mb deeper and a smidge further northeast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

And the UL trough at 500 mb looks a little further east (not much though) than the 12z progs.

[Portastorm]

I dunno ... could be reading this wrong ... but it looks like the new model run has the surface wave on the front a little further northeast at 48 hrs than the 12z run. The 0z run has the 850mb vorticity center over the DFW metroplex while the 12z run had it southwest of the metroplex by about 60 miles or so.

If this verifies, it would probably mean less chance of wintry fun for you folks in DFW. Remember what Wxman57 told us earlier today about how key it is where the surface wave on the front forms.

[msstateguy83]

i agree looks further north on the gfs... looking over more rightnow...

[Weatherdude20]

Thats disappointing.

[msstateguy83]

i still say we need to see what the models hold tomorrow since the system is now on shore
the next few runs are critical

[wall_cloud]

i still say we need to see what the models hold tomorrow since the system is now on shore
the next few runs are critical

nah...doesn't matter what the models do. sometimes they get no better as forecast range decreases.

[Portastorm]

Thats disappointing.

Meh, it's not gospel. It's only the GFS.

The Euro could opine differently in a little bit. If tomorrow's 12z GFS continues this trend then you can start thinking it might be on to something.

I still think from msstateguy83's backyard west through the Tx Panhandle and back northeast through the land of Sam Bradford, they're feel winter's wrath big time!