Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snow]

For those new, registered or lurking, if you didn’t know you can download the mPing app and send your on the ground reports to the NWS to help them determine what’s really happening out there.

An added benefit to you is it’s crowd sourcing, so you can see for example when a changeover from rain to snow is about to happen for you.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM goes out to HR 84 (Sunday morning). Blizzard taking shape as colder air is filtering in from the North.

[TheAustinMan]

As the supply moisture increases ahead of the incoming shortwave, the HREF mean shows some pockets of 0.1"/hr QPF within the 32F isotherm over the Hill Country making their way into parts of the Austin area by 9 am tomorrow. Model guidance regarding ice accretion can often be rather variable, but with the stoutness of the shallow cold layer it definitely poses a big risk to traffic. No surprise seeing the winter weather advisory extended southward after the 00z mesoscale suite locked in on an icing event for the Hill Country, Austin, Waco, and surrounding environs.

As for the Metroplex area, looks like some of the automated stations are starting to report light freezing rain / drizzle. Looks like some of those light radar returns are making their way there in spurts from the southwest.

318 KB. Source: SPC HREF

[Iceresistance]

0z NAM goes out to HR 84 (Sunday morning). Blizzard taking shape as colder air is filtering in from the North.

https://i.imgur.com/BMuQtsW.gif

Just outside of the NAM range, but I've already called this potent storm "The Big One" (Taken from NASCAR )

[KatDaddy]

Its been awhile since I posted but time to join in the Winter weather fun. A nice warm 70F sunset on the edge of the clouds in the backyard this evening. The cricket singing a loud Spring song earlier better be ready to hibernate for the upcoming Winter. February has brought epic Winter events to SE TX since 1895. Still a few days out but we should continue to plan for people, pets, plants, and pipes. At this point I will wrap the 2 outside faucets Saturday. With that said…….the million dollar Winter precipitation question is what and where……..the answer to that is, to many unknowns and the answer is yes and no depending on where you live across SE TX and the depth of the cold airmass. Predicting Winter precipitation for SE TX is the most difficult. Much respect for the Houston-Galveston NWS Meteorologists.

[rwfromkansas]

Temp still plummeting despite approaching disturbance. Down to 29. Definitely cold enough for major icing issues.

[Ralph's Weather]

For those new, registered or lurking, if you didn’t know you can download the mPing app and send your on the ground reports to the NWS to help them determine what’s really happening out there.

An added benefit to you is it’s crowd sourcing, so you can see for example when a changeover from rain to snow is about to happen for you.

I hope everyone utilizes this tool.

[Iceresistance]

The 0z Preview models are starting to go . . .

Me: Oh no, the GFS & GFS-Para is going to start soon!

GFS & GFS-Para: Can we KEEP this going until it snows?

[Texas Snow]

The pinpoint forecast time still says 6:17 PM but my forecast looks like it was downgraded from almost .25 of ice despite a 7:43 discussion update saying DFW may need to be upgraded to a warning. Hmmm.

Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

[bubba hotep]

The pinpoint forecast time still says 6:17 PM but my forecast looks like it was downgraded from almost .25 of ice

Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

00z runs cut qpf way back for all of DFW. NW areas probably only getting some mist.

[DeltaV]

Ah well, I was hoping for a major icing event in DFW, guess it wasn't to be. Probably for the best, but I was looking forward to it. Perhaps it's a bit premature to call the whole thing off though, thoughts on the odds of some decent accumulation overnight?

Let's hope the system Sunday and Monday holds up at least.

[Quixotic]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/TgDgGs9/9-F25244-E-C567-4905-BCE2-BD2-EF5-B5-A8-C5.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/235WD2J/EF4428-B7-0265-4-A6-E-A2-E8-A15-A12-F32975.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/mbRPmbn/1-CF52-AEB-DD4-F-4458-9-E29-7-EBF0-CC6758-A.png [/url]

wow DFW metro looks dry..... precip bust??

Kind of worried about that myself. It is the nam so not too worried but we’ve dropped to 27 with a DP of 23. Mist is falling but it’s already frozen when it lands. Looks like pixie dust. Wonder if we are too far north. Radar returns unimpressive unless we go east.

[jasons2k]

I am paying close attention after seeing consistent runs of the GFS showing single-digits for Montgomery County. This is not an event when I can just cover the potted citrus on the patio. Nope - all that stuff will be hauled into the garage on Saturday. The tropicals in my flower beds will probably be toast, at least to the roots. What doesn't grow back can be replaced.

However, if the GFS is correct (or even within 5 degrees), it's going to kill a lot of palm and citrus trees in the Houston area. At this point, I just hope we don't lose power. I lived through the '93 superstorm in Birmingham, Alabama and while the storm itself - intense, nonstop thundersnow at night - was the rush of a lifetime, the two weeks of no electricity that followed were pure misery.

I remember a lot of things about that storm, but one thing that sticks out the most is when Carrot Top lost all of his props to a fire at a comedy club. This, of course, was in an era when Carrot Top was still considered funny.

[Ralph's Weather]

0Z HRRR hitting my house hard with ice tonight, 1" QPF, .4" FRAM.

Nice little storm right now temps hovering just above freezing.

Question for tonight is how efficiently will it accrete. Spotty 1" QPF in sub freezing air from the Hill Country to NE TX tonight and tomorrow morning, though most areas with heavy precip are around 30-31 by morning. ISW may be warranted but will wait until bands set up to know where. Most will see <0.1" of ice accretion.

[Texas Snow]

I remember a lot of things about that storm, but one thing that sticks out the most is when Carrot Top lost all of his props to a fire at a comedy club. This, of course, was in an era when Carrot Top was still considered funny.

I didn’t know such an era ever even existed

[TropicalTundra]

33F here, 1 degree away from the famous number.

[EnnisTx]

The pinpoint forecast time still says 6:17 PM but my forecast looks like it was downgraded from almost .25 of ice despite a 7:43 discussion update saying DFW may need to be upgraded to a warning. Hmmm.

Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

They may have been talking about the area in Southern Tarrant and far Southwest Dallas Counties extending Southwest along Hillsboro to Hamilton to Stephenville back around to Southeastern Parker County line. It shows they are watching this area for the highest ice accumulations.

[Texas Snow]

The pinpoint forecast time still says 6:17 PM but my forecast looks like it was downgraded from almost .25 of ice despite a 7:43 discussion update saying DFW may need to be upgraded to a warning. Hmmm.

Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

They may have been talking about the area in Southern Tarrant and far Southwest Dallas Counties extending Southwest along Hillsboro to Hamilton to Stephenville back around to Southeastern Parker County line. It shows they are watching this area for the highest ice accumulations.

Possibly This is what they said just an hour or so before my forecast changed. Maybe they just meant south metro:

There is some concern for higher accumulation amounts
mainly west of I-35 and south of I-20, possibly extending as across
far Northeast Texas (including the DFW Metroplex), which may
result in an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if confidence for
this potential increases overnight. However, one limiting factor
is whether sleet develops across this area, which may keep ice
accumulations below 0.25"

[Cerlin]

Is that a snow shower in Dallas/Carrollton I see?

[HockeyTx82]

Oh boy, here we go, models giveth models taketh away. Ice Bust for NW of DFW tonight? I give up on Monday too.