Texas Winter 2021-2022

[rwfromkansas]

Kind of in the waiting game now, but did see a recent update from IWeathernet....he appears to be leaning toward more sleet for DFW but does tend to wait until it's closer to make a more definitive conclusion:

DFW/N TX (Tue 2/1/22 at noon)
...Quick forecast update...
...Preparations in N TX should be rushed to completion...
➤ Generally speaking, there are no forecast changes. I am going to try to post more frequent updates as the winter storm approaches North Texas.
➤ Locations northwest of a Hamilton - DFW - Sherman line should fall below freezing during the 9 pm to 11 pm time frame Wednesday evening. Locations to the east/southeast of that line will be a bit later. Everyone in North Texas should be below freezing by 2 am Thursday.
➤ Rain will quickly change to freezing rain when temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday evening/night. I do expect an eventual change to sleet, or fluctuations between the two precipitation types, through Thursday morning.
➤ The sleet/freezing rain (let's just call it "ice") may change to snow for a while Thursday over the northwestern half of North Texas.
➤ 60+ hours below freezing, starting Wednesday evening and lasting through at least 10 am Saturday. There is a distinct possibility that temperatures may fail to rise above freezing at many locations (especially DFW north & west) until Sunday. Let's take it one step at a time, remain optimistic, and aim for mid-30s on Saturday.
➤ This appears to be a significant winter weather event. However, only freezing rain will affect power lines this time (sleet will not affect power lines, and there will not be enough snow to be of concern to power lines). There is reason to believe that there might be more sleet than freezing rain and that would be a good thing. [Note: I am only referring to ice on trees/power lines, not power demand... power demand in an airmass this cold could certainly result in outages, so be prepared]. Roads will likely be a mess for a while, no matter how this shakes out, although sleet does tend to accumulate faster on roadways due to ice microphysics.
➤ Preparations should be rushed to completion.
___________
Chris Robbins, Meteorologist, M.S., iWeatherNet

[Iceresistance]

Missouri got absolutely NAMed big time on the 18z NAM

[DallasAg]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

[cheezyWXguy]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

Interested to hear the logic as to why, other than being overly cautious. I can’t think of why they would say 3am other than “we just really like the NAM today”

[rwfromkansas]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

Seems contradictory to go with a later freezing line yet quicker mixing in of sleet.

[orangeblood]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

[SnowintheFalls]

It's crazy to see a new page of discussion every time I come to check out any new info. Hoping for more snow with less ice for all and everybody stays safe.

[Brent]

I was at 4-6 earlier 6-8 would definitely probably be spots hitting 10 at least

[gboudx]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

I don't know about shortly. The WSW was just re-issued/updated at 2:44. I guess they can always issue a more urgent alert.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

[Ralph's Weather]

I doubt upgrades come before 0z runs. SHV may even wait until tomorrow morning.

[Lagreeneyes03]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

I don't know about shortly. The WSW was just re-issued/updated at 2:44. I guess they can always issue a more urgent alert.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

What does it take to get warning criteria? It's not like this has a chance of being a bust..

[SnowintheFalls]

I was at 4-6 earlier 6-8 would definitely probably be spots hitting 10 at least

https://i.ibb.co/y40PBHX/image2-3.png

Looking likely that y'all will get dumped on there in Tulsa. I've got a friend that lives in Broken Arrow and he is hoping it pans out too. Our local mets have been increasing amounts here as well. I am hoping Wichita Falls stays somewhat in the bullseye area.

[orangeblood]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

I don't know about shortly. The WSW was just re-issued/updated at 2:44. I guess they can always issue a more urgent alert.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

True, I guess they mostly do 12-24 hrs out but this seems to warrant a 36 hour notice like they sometimes do

Note: Abilene office just issued their Warnings

[Brent]

I was at 4-6 earlier 6-8 would definitely probably be spots hitting 10 at least

https://i.ibb.co/y40PBHX/image2-3.png

Looking likely that y'all will get dumped on there in Tulsa. I've got a friend that lives in Broken Arrow and he is hoping it pans out too. Our local mets have been increasing amounts here as well. I am hoping Wichita Falls stays somewhat in the bullseye area.

It's definitely gonna snow significantly it's just a question of how much

[Iceresistance]

15z SREF has a mean 10:1 ratio snowfall of 6-7.5 inches across Central & NE Oklahoma, especially Along I-44 from OKC to Tulsa & slightly southward.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS Abilene is in higher elevations, thus more of a impact from any freezing precipitation in their neck of the woods

[nathanc1969]

We've been upgraded to Winter Storm Warning here in the San Angelo area. Calling for 2-4" of snow and some ice and lows from 10 to 15.

[Quixotic]

Going to get the old Winter Weather Advisory ready.

[CaptinCrunch]

Crazy to see Wichita Falls @ 71 degrees with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.

[txtwister78]

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

I don't know about shortly. The WSW was just re-issued/updated at 2:44. I guess they can always issue a more urgent alert.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

True, I guess they mostly do 12-24 hrs out but this seems to warrant a 36 hour notice like they sometimes do

Note: Abilene office just issued their Warnings

That's actually the NWS office in San Angelo (jurisdiction over Abilene) but yes, they updated to winter storm warning.