Texas Winter 2010-2011

[DonWrk]

3-5 inches expected just north of the red river on Tuesday.

[iorange55]

GFS 12z is starting to update!

[DonWrk]

San Angelo Weather forecast is quite interesting......thunderstorms tonight then 3 inches of sleet and snow after midnight.

So I fully expect to wake up to sunny skies in the morning.....and dry cold weather.

Okay, If San Angelo is forecasting 3 inches ? Why is FW not on board with higher accumulation levels? I know for Grayson Co. I'm forecasting 2-5 inches of sleet, ice, and snow.

I would think that if the stronger part of the storm is to the north of San Angelo that DFW and points north would see more significant accumulations?

Why is FW not mentioning this???

To conservative?

I know, they have .5 an inch just south of the red river and 3-5 just to our north. Surely it won't be that big of a discrepancy.

[iorange55]

I know, they have .5 an inch just south of the red river and 3-5 just to our north. Surely it won't be that big of a discrepancy.

Wouldn't worry about the amount right now. They extended the winter storm watch which is enough to tell you they think it'll be bigger than once thought.

[Ellsey]

Ok, so I've been in love with this thread as far as the model watching goes. It's been a real education as to the work that goes into forecasting weather. I guess the real question for me is, as someone on the eastern-ish edge of the winter storm watch, it looks to me like we'll get nasty weather, but nothing to worry to much about as far as power outages and all that. Should I be preparing for that potential though?

[iorange55]

12z continues to speed up the cold air and has the heaviest precip a tad bit further south.

[gboudx]

Should I be preparing for that potential though?

It wouldn't hurt to make sure you have flashlights, candles, batteries and enough food for 2-3 days just in case. Where I live, most of our power lines are underground, but the long-haul transmission lines are certainly elevated.

[utweather]

You don't see this every day! Yep, this is BROWNSVILLE.

Wow! I don't think I've ever seen that since the internet has been up.

[txagwxman]

"This Winter Storm will be HISTORIC, will break all records. Will go down as the biggest one in Oklahoma history."

Quote from a fellow meteorologist.

[utweather]

U know something is about to unfold when I can't sleep...

Watch out DFW/SPS! 12" SPS, 2-4" in FTW? ICE/SLEET 7AM TUE. Fort Worth/Denton you guys are in trouble!

Watch out CLL/IAH/DWH/GGG/SHV/AUS Thu/FRI. GEM going bonkers over Austin now!
Watch out OK for -5F to -10F temps over the snow cover later this week. Could see 5F temps over ice/snow N. TX.

And the ECMWF has more cold...wth is going on!

20 years in this city without a snowman, I'm due:-)

[Dallasaggie01]

I think this is one of those storms where those on the north/east side of Dallas may be ok, but I'd probably still make preperations now just in case. It's all going to depend on how fast things start sticking. I'm in northeast Dallas and I'm thinking we'll see some areas of icing on the overpasses and a dusting of snow - but we'll be watching Denton get hammered on tv. From living here the past 17 years, I've learned even a 10 mile difference across town makes a huge difference.

[CaptinCrunch]

Snippit's of FTW morning AFD



FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AS OUR STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SW STATES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS CAN NOW BE SEEN PER NATIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER 48 AND INTO AREAS FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO
THE DAKOTAS/MONTANA. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED BY FORECASTERS/MODELS THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WE HAVE SPED
UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BY A FEW HOURS WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS

INITIAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW-SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COULD REACH TO AN INCH
/ONE TENTH OF INCH RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF DEPTH OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING AND ACTUAL PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS IS VERY DIFFICULT AT
THIS TIME...AS MODELS KEEP GETTING FASTER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUN. THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL DUE TO THE DENSITY AND INITIAL SHALLOW
PROPERTIES THAT ARE SOMETIME EXHIBITED BY ARCTIC AIRMASSES ARRIVING
THROUGH THE SRN U.S...WHICH MODELS INITIALLY STRUGGLE WITH UNTIL THE
LAST MINUTE IN MANY CASES. FOR NOW...WE HAVE PUSHED THE WINTER STORM
WATCH SOUTHEAST TO A BONHAM...D/FW...SOMERVELL/ GRANBURY...COMANCHE
LINE WITH BEST CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE FASTER AS THEY
HAVE RECENTLY.

[Jarodm12]

North Texas is about to get slammed period, though this is not an "official" forecast we are going to get dumped on i would not be surprised if travel is nearly impossible power outages are likely. Come on NWS the SH***ZZ is about to hit the proverbiall fan.

oh btw, Im a long time lurker i love weather hi

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tejas89]

I think this is one of those storms where those on the north/east side of Dallas may be ok, but I'd probably still make preperations now just in case. It's all going to depend on how fast things start sticking. I'm in northeast Dallas and I'm thinking we'll see some areas of icing on the overpasses and a dusting of snow - but we'll be watching Denton get hammered on tv. From living here the past 17 years, I've learned even a 10 mile difference across town makes a huge difference.

Almost impossible to predict who will get trained on vs. dry-slotted. With Dallas proper, the warm ground temps, howling north wind, and heavy traffic regardless of weather will erode the frozen precip on the main roads unless we get an inch or two of sleet (doesn't look likely). I think things will be "o.k." by Wed. a.m. aside from overpasses which will get a heavy dose of sand this super bowl week.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tireman4]

I think this is one of those storms where those on the north/east side of Dallas may be ok, but I'd probably still make preperations now just in case. It's all going to depend on how fast things start sticking. I'm in northeast Dallas and I'm thinking we'll see some areas of icing on the overpasses and a dusting of snow - but we'll be watching Denton get hammered on tv. From living here the past 17 years, I've learned even a 10 mile difference across town makes a huge difference.

Almost impossible to predict who will get trained on vs. dry-slotted. With Dallas proper, the warm ground temps, howling north wind, and heavy traffic regardless of weather will erode the frozen precip on the main roads unless we get an inch or two of sleet (doesn't look likely). I think things will be "o.k." by Wed. a.m. aside from overpasses which will get a heavy dose of sand this super bowl week.

Not to be picky, but you might want to use the "Not an official forecast" moniker below your statement.....

[Jarodm12]

I would not be surprised to see a swath or 3 - 8 inches of snow on top of a quart inch of ice. we all know that artic air travels much faster than models predict. tomorrow is going to be very intresting i havent been this excited since last years 12"


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[orangeblood]

12z continues to speed up the cold air and has the heaviest precip a tad bit further south.

They should work in tandem (cold front/precip). Heaviest precip will be along and just behind the cold front. So whenever the trough decides to swing through, the heaviest precip band will follow the front. The toughest question in all of this is figuring out how much of that precip falling between 06z and 12z will be of the frozen variety. Right now the GFS has 0.80 inches falling during that time for Fort Worth. The NWS office has their hands full with answering that question.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[LearnedHat]

I would not be surprised to see a swath or 3 - 8 inches of snow on top of a quart inch of ice. we all know that artic air travels much faster than models predict. tomorrow is going to be very intresting i havent been this excited since last years 12"

I've seen this statement made several times over the last few days - why don't they adjust that aspect of the model if it understates the movement with any sort of precision?

[Portastorm]

Tireman4 is right ... we (the mods) are seeing a number of posts now with forecasts and near forecasts. As geeked out as most of us are about this pending winter weather, the situation may end up being quite serious for some folks. This board has thousands of members and even more guests who come here looking for information. It is important for everyone to understand what the pro's are saying versus the amateurs.

As a reminder, if you are NOT a professional meteorologist as far as we are concerned (if you are, you have the blue tag), you MUST use the forecast disclaimer when making a forecast or predicting weather as you see it. Here is the disclaimer:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[orangeblood]

I think this is one of those storms where those on the north/east side of Dallas may be ok, but I'd probably still make preperations now just in case. It's all going to depend on how fast things start sticking. I'm in northeast Dallas and I'm thinking we'll see some areas of icing on the overpasses and a dusting of snow - but we'll be watching Denton get hammered on tv. From living here the past 17 years, I've learned even a 10 mile difference across town makes a huge difference.

Almost impossible to predict who will get trained on vs. dry-slotted. With Dallas proper, the warm ground temps, howling north wind, and heavy traffic regardless of weather will erode the frozen precip on the main roads unless we get an inch or two of sleet (doesn't look likely). I think things will be "o.k." by Wed. a.m. aside from overpasses which will get a heavy dose of sand this super bowl week.

This is a much much colder air mass than what DFW has seen in the past, following a winter storm, And will be around for several days. This will probably be more serious than you think.