Texas Winter 2021-2022

[wxman57]

Here's a 21Z surface analysis. The front is really not moving much across Oklahoma or Missouri, and it's not moving too quickly through the southern Texas Panhandle. Note the "Marfa front" (black dashed line). Still not much of a temperature drop immediately behind the front. Freezing line is up in southern Nebraska. Only an 11 degree difference between Amarillo and North Platte, Nebraska. Over the next 24 hours, the cold air will deepen behind the front (unfortunately, my wall may leak a little) over the next 24 hours. By the time it's moving across central Texas, the temperature difference across the front will be quite significant.

P.S. As I look at the map, I should have drawn the stationary front right across Ponca City in northern OK rather than to its south. Not redrawing it.

P.P.S. I couldn't stand it. I adjusted the stationary front north to over Ponca City.

http://wxman57.com/images/21ZSFC.JPG

[losf1981]

Crazy to see Wichita Falls @ 71 degrees with a Winter Storm Warning in effect.

that's how we roll up here

[Brent]

Another thing from WeatherBug... There's no ice here. It even has a little snow in the morning then it's straight snow when the real event hits in about 24 hours

[Quixotic]

Not sure what weather service we use, but my company has issued a winter storm warning meaning we'll be closed Thursday and Friday.

[orangeblood]

NWS Abilene is in higher elevations, thus more of a impact from any freezing precipitation in their neck of the woods

It appears to be due to their warnings starting 6 hrs before ours at 12pm instead of 6pm

[bubba hotep]

FWD has issued updated grids. Interesting changes from earlier grids:

- Later arrival of 32F - Dallas Co now showing 3:00a Thursday vs. midnight previously
- Quicker cutover to mixed precip vs. freezing rain only, and increase in likelihood of snow
- Total QPF looks about the same
- Not as cold Friday morning or Saturday morning - lows upper teens now vs. lower teens (Dallas Co) earlier
- No Winter Storm Warning yet - still shows Winter Storm Watch

I've noticed sometimes those gridded postings reset before updating. I'd imagine Winter Storm Warnings shortly

I don't know about shortly. The WSW was just re-issued/updated at 2:44. I guess they can always issue a more urgent alert.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

Waiting to see if it's going to be Winter Storm or Ice Storm Warning, would be my guess. Also, the window is the next 12-36 hrs, so it cascades from the NW in time.

[txtwister78]

Have to say while some on social media and other outlets rush to compare everything to 2021 (which I think can be do more damage than good), NWS offices have been really good about communicating ahead of this event to keep the public informed. Important to stress how rare that 2021 event was so that the public understands that as FWD puts it "no two weather systems are alike"

[Quixotic]

Have to say while some on social media and other outlets rush to compare everything to 2021 (which I think can be do more damage than good), NWS offices have been really good about communicating ahead of this event to keep the public informed. Important to stress how rare that 2021 event was so that the public understands that as FWD puts it "no two weather systems are alike"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKimSqdXoAkcuBh?format=jpg&name=medium

Don't see ERCOT contingencies in there.

[txtwister78]

Have to say while some on social media and other outlets rush to compare everything to 2021 (which I think can be do more damage than good), NWS offices have been really good about communicating ahead of this event to keep the public informed. Important to stress how rare that 2021 event was so that the public understands that as FWD puts it "no two weather systems are alike"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKimSqdXoAkcuBh?format=jpg&name=medium

Don't see ERCOT contingencies in there.

That's not really their job or responsibility. Obviously locally due to icing there may be some impacts to power especially if ice buildup becomes the predominant precip type (freezing rain).

[Quixotic]

Have to say while some on social media and other outlets rush to compare everything to 2021 (which I think can be do more damage than good), NWS offices have been really good about communicating ahead of this event to keep the public informed. Important to stress how rare that 2021 event was so that the public understands that as FWD puts it "no two weather systems are alike"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FKimSqdXoAkcuBh?format=jpg&name=medium

Don't see ERCOT contingencies in there.

That's not really their job or responsibility. Obviously locally due to icing there may be some impacts to power especially if ice buildup becomes the predominant precip type (freezing rain).

'twas in jest

[rwfromkansas]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

[wxman57]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Trust me, ERCOT is well-aware of the coming cold and ice.

[HockeyTx82]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Maybe they are so busy that the social media person got pulled to utility repairs and is not posting.....

[txtwister78]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Trust me, ERCOT is well-aware of the coming cold and ice.

Yeah they've already issued a "watch" for a forecast peak energy usage of 73gw Friday. That's been shared on social media about a billion times it seems, but I think it's also important to stress that power outages are possible locally due to the ice buildup on power lines (which FWD does outline) and that doesn't necessarily fall to ERCOT to "fix". That's a local preparedness response/local electric company responsibility. I think the fact that Houston and the RGV are not expected to have severe freezing temps should help us statewide but no question I get the concern after what folks went through a year ago.

[EnnisTx]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Maybe they are so busy that the social media person got pulled to utility repairs and is not posting.....

There have been many news stories out there recently where they have stated that they are aware of the upcoming weather situation and that they will be ready with plenty power to handle the event. But what they cannot control is outages due to ice, wind and trees taking down power lines.

[txtwister78]

"Good news" for DFW and that is snow looking more likely if you go with GFS. "Bad news" for SA is it now brings freezing rain into SA.

[Ntxw]

ERCOT is still crickets on social media about their preparations. Last post was Jan. 18.

As for the FWD graphic, that is great. I have been really concerned seeing so many DFW mets saying "this won't be last year" almost downplaying it. Just because we won't be below zero and in single digits for days does not mean it's not a significant event. It will still get very cold so anything will freeze well. This isn't our usual bordering 32-degree event where everything that falls melts. The roads will be incredibly dangerous, and any ice that does fall will go on trees and powerlines.

This graphic does a great job of explaining this without saying "this isn't 2021, don't worry" like some people.

Trust me, ERCOT is well-aware of the coming cold and ice.

Yeah they've already issued a "watch" for a forecast peak energy usage of 73gw Friday. That's been shared on social media about a billion times it seems, but I think it's also important to stress that power outages are possible locally due to the ice buildup on power lines (which FWD does outline) and that doesn't necessarily fall to ERCOT to "fix". That's a local preparedness response/local electric company responsibility. I think the fact that Houston and the RGV are not expected to have severe freezing temps should help us statewide but no question I get the concern after what folks went through a year ago.

Can't stress this enough having the energy capital of the world not go offline really helps. I guess wxman57 is good for something after-all with his heat source down there!

[EnnisTx]

"Good news" for DFW and that is snow looking more likely if you go with GFS. "Bad news" for SA is it now brings freezing rain into SA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022020118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8.png

Hopefully that will be the case and that warn nose is overcome early on in the event. We don't need the power grid being hammered right now.

[TropicalTundra]

"Good news" for DFW and that is snow looking more likely if you go with GFS. "Bad news" for SA is it now brings freezing rain into SA.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022020118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_8.png

I'll take the five inches of snow depth and call it a winter. Deal?

[Quixotic]

FWD AFD shows them punting until they get within 24 hours. Looks like the night shift will be making this decision. Sounds to me like they're leaning towards less freezing rain and more sleet and snow.