Texas Winter 2020-2021

[rwfromkansas]

Well, hopefully Monday holds. Don’t want a major ice storm.

[TexasSam]

ICON is such an insane run for cold and snow, like you just don't want to believe it. Literally only 1978 can do that kind of snow.

Temps for Tuesday morning. Falls to singles Sunday evening and hovers there until Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/Sg87Lf7.png

I was looking at this map thinking that's not bad, then I realized that's minus 30 up in Kansas.

[sphelps8681]

So I know that points north of me will feel the impacts worse or less than me but what do ya'll think will happen in East Tx close to the LA border just N of Beaumont. Weather channel says 3-5 in of snow but not sure I believe that.

[SoupBone]

I am paying close attention after seeing consistent runs of the GFS showing single-digits for Montgomery County. This is not an event when I can just cover the potted citrus on the patio. Nope - all that stuff will be hauled into the garage on Saturday. The tropicals in my flower beds will probably be toast, at least to the roots. What doesn't grow back can be replaced.

However, if the GFS is correct (or even within 5 degrees), it's going to kill a lot of palm and citrus trees in the Houston area. At this point, I just hope we don't lose power. I lived through the '93 superstorm in Birmingham, Alabama and while the storm itself - intense, nonstop thundersnow at night - was the rush of a lifetime, the two weeks of no electricity that followed were pure misery.

I remember a lot of things about that storm, but one thing that sticks out the most is when Carrot Top lost all of his props to a fire at a comedy club. This, of course, was in an era when Carrot Top was still considered funny.

I really don't think we're going to get into the single digits, but that would really suck. I don't mean to laugh at this...

[Wntrwthrguy]

Seeing some reports on Twitter of flakes mixing in with drizzle west of Austin. Does this mean the warm layer isn’t as warm as modeled?

[Ntxw]

ICON is such an insane run for cold and snow, like you just don't want to believe it. Literally only 1978 can do that kind of snow.

Temps for Tuesday morning. Falls to singles Sunday evening and hovers there until Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/Sg87Lf7.png

I was looking at this map thinking that's not bad, then I realized that's minus 30 up in Kansas.

For the icon this run is the coldest yet in terms of how low it goes. We're just so used to these kind of maps now -1 vs -7 is a model warmed in this spot or that spot. Anything below 10F in itself is severe cold.

[DeltaV]

Ah well, I was hoping for a major icing event in DFW, guess it wasn't to be. Probably for the best, but I was looking forward to it. Perhaps it's a bit premature to call the whole thing off though, thoughts on the odds of some decent accumulation overnight?

Let's hope the system Sunday and Monday holds up at least.

Why would you hope for something that will most likely end up with someone being severely injured or killed in an accident not to mention the power lines that come down with a major ice event causing thousands of people to be without power in possible single digit temperatures. That's all before the damage to homes from broken water lines. Hope for a nice big snow event not major ice.

You may have misunderstood the intent of my sentiment, certainly I wasn't hoping for a disaster. I was however looking forward to relaxing outside and watching the sleet come down. "Major icing event" may have been a tad hyperbolic though, I'll admit.
I don't think enjoying extreme weather makes a person a near sociopath however. It has more to do with an intense interest in standing witness to what nature is capable of. For me, meteorology is awe inspiring, although admittedly I'm not too well versed in the science behind it.

[Ntxw]

Alright guys lets get back on track and away from back and forth at each other. Point is taken on either end.

Back to models and reports shall we?

[Hurricane_Apu]

Looking more like a relative non event in South Lousiana, with even the ICON respecting that SE ridge now. That one frame has a 20 degree split between Lafayette and Austin and 30 between New Orleans and Austin. Once in a generation cold for Texas, probably not even our coldest in three years (really doubting that Lafayette exceeds the 15 from January 2018 or even comes very close to it).

[txtwister78]

GFS adjusted north and with less accumulations from previous 18z run (some of this may also be sleet). No doubt we will see adjustments with amounts and track next few days. Freezing rain along I-10

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like the latest GFS is faster with the system on Monday. It's also a bit warmer. I don't like that it is showing mainly freezing rain for my area. I would like sleet or snow please.

[rwfromkansas]

That ICON. Wow. Would like a slight shift south to feel more secure, as it could easily screw DFW still.

Latest GFS is alarming. Major shift north. Major.

[orangeblood]

Different look at 500mb on latest GFS for Monday’s system...looks like the trailing system (Wednesdays) is coming in faster than previously modeled, could have a pretty big impact on totals if it kicks out further north

[Ntxw]

That ICON. Wow. Would like a slight shift south to feel more secure, as it could easily screw DFW still.

Latest GFS is alarming.

In the South yes in the North you actually like it. But as twister mentioned this is variability. The models are not going to pintpoint the exact amount and location of how much today.

[Ntxw]

Different look at 500mb on latest GFS for Monday’s system...looks like the trailing system (Wednesdays) is coming in faster than previously modeled, could have a pretty big impact on totals if it kicks out further north

TheProfessor last night highlighted that the winners were Arkansas (from those runs) due to being the sweet spot. Within the discussion was a more amplified solution would shift that axis to North Texas and Oklahoma.

[TropicalTundra]

?????!!?

[DeltaV]

If Monday turns out to be another bust, I swear I'm going to learn how to hibernate each winter. Still a long ways out for any degree of certainty, so I'll be clinging on to hope all the way to the inevitable (given the past half decade) disappointment.

Fingers crossed it doesn't dissapoint. Either way I'll be showing this Arctic front some Texas hospitality.

[Brent]

Delkus just went all in Monday... showing those crazy models on TV weve been posting

[bevolon]

Did Delkus just give us the kiss of death!?? LOL!

[Texas Snow]

GFS adjusted north and with less accumulations from previous 18z run (some of this may also be sleet). No doubt we will see adjustments with amounts and track next few days. Freezing rain along I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613001600/1613433600-VE5IUzT1N8M.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1613001600/1613433600-FoniMXKij3I.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1613001600/1613433600-HZgF1N9lZsQ.png

Interesting, Why is that snowfall from the WB chart so different than TT? It looks like early sleet on precip type Sunday changing to snow, but your Weatherbell maps don’t total to the same as TT for example near Denton/Collin/Dallas intersection.