Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brent]

Did Delkus just give us the kiss of death!?? LOL!

Yeah anytime now I expect the snow to vanish j/k.. I think

[Ntxw]

One of note between the GFS/GFS-Para/ICON is that for parts of Southwest Texas to North Texas there is a leading disturbance that brings in snow earlier on Sunday morning.

[txtwister78]

GFS adjusted north and with less accumulations from previous 18z run (some of this may also be sleet). No doubt we will see adjustments with amounts and track next few days. Freezing rain along I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613001600/1613433600-VE5IUzT1N8M.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1613001600/1613433600-FoniMXKij3I.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1613001600/1613433600-HZgF1N9lZsQ.png

Why is that snowfall from the WB chart so different than TT? It looks like early sleet on precip type Sunday changing to snow, but your Weatherbell maps don’t total to the same as TT:

https://i.imgur.com/4KUUAd0.png

Because Tidbits graphic includes sleet as part of the accumulation so it looks more impressive with that factored in. Don't think WB does (although not sure).

[Texas Snow]

GFS adjusted north and with less accumulations from previous 18z run (some of this may also be sleet). No doubt we will see adjustments with amounts and track next few days. Freezing rain along I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613001600/1613433600-VE5IUzT1N8M.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/frzr_total/1613001600/1613433600-FoniMXKij3I.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/sleet_total/1613001600/1613433600-HZgF1N9lZsQ.png

Why is that snowfall from the WB chart so different than TT? It looks like early sleet on precip type Sunday changing to snow, but your Weatherbell maps don’t total to the same as TT:

https://i.imgur.com/4KUUAd0.png

Because Tidbits graphic includes sleet as part of the accumulation so it looks more impressive with that factored in. Don't think WB does (although not sure).

Yes TT does but you also showed the sleet breakout and the totals don’t seem to add up. No biggie, just an observation. Too early for anything to matter much.

[rwfromkansas]

I was 90 percent sure of 4 inches of snow due to prior consistency. Down to 50 now but lots of model runs to go. At least we have winter.

[txtwister78]

CMC also very fast and lighter snow amounts.

[mcallum177]

I'm in Frisco and our point forecast high on Monday dropped to 18 and low Monday night is now 6...it was 20 something and 14 earlier today. The "weather" app on my galaxy phone is usually the most conservative forecast of anything and it's down to 16 and 1!! Usually it's the last thing to predict snow or tornados!

NWS has increased their wording in the graphicast and AFD, definitely check on your people and pipes and pets.

[Texas Snow]

I was 90 percent sure of 4 inches of snow due to prior consistency. Down to 50 now but lots of model runs to go. At least we have winter.

Yeah not sure 100% on totals on Sun/Mon of course but not even prior runs didn’t have much for Wednesday, now that is showing as possibly significant so we have 2 shots of multi inch snows with temps below freezing the entire time so it may be a winter wonderland for days.

[Ntxw]

Did Delkus just give us the kiss of death!?? LOL!

Yeah anytime now I expect the snow to vanish j/k.. I think

We need to banish his content posted on the forums .

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Trough doesnt dig as deep on the GFS, doesnt quite provide the divergence as previous run, resulting in less precip.

[rwfromkansas]

The problem is the big storm keeps getting pushed off. It was originally earlier, then Monday, now maybe Wednesday. It’s going to get cold. It’s the darn ripples that are harder. We will know more Friday probably.

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS has a second shot of cold air arriving towards the end of next week. It has lows in my area around 20 degrees again. In fact, pretty much the whole week, my area may stay near freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS has a second shot of cold air arriving towards the end of next week. It has lows in my area around 20 degrees again. In fact, pretty much the whole week, my area may stay near freezing.

So i wanted to post about this earlier, typically with big arctic blasts, they come in pairs, sometimes in 3 waves. It wasn't being shown yet on models but maybe it is now lol. Usually, the second wave is stronger than the initial wave, too.

[txtwister78]

ENS not as bullish as previous runs but still a few days to watch to see if this is a trend

[cheezyWXguy]

The problem is the big storm keeps getting pushed off. It was originally earlier, then Monday, now maybe Wednesday. It’s going to get cold. It’s the darn ripples that are harder. We will know more Friday probably.

Nothing is getting pushed back. If anything, the timing for the Monday storm is being moved up, which is actually what we don’t want. To maximize snow totals, we want a slower, more amplified system, like what the 6z gfs showed. Expect changes to the depictions as the models start to sense different variables of the pattern. The track and evolution is starting to be impacted by the models sensing a leading disturbance before Monday’s main event. Given the complexity of the event, there will assuredly be some variation, and it would not surprise me at all to see the insane totals from this morning come back into play.

[Texas Snow]

1 hour 18 minutes.

That is how long it took this board to go from

1) Nam showing the blizzard coming!
2) ICON showing almost 12 inches for Dallas in 2 storms in 2-3 days !!!
3) gfs backed off totals, we always get screwed, maybe I’ll just jump off a bridge

Maybe just maybe we listen to what has been posted 1000 times here and not freak out about one run? Remember the one run of the GFS a few days ago when it showed higher temps and some folks were like “ I knew it was too good to be true!” Then it went right back to cold.

I’m not trying to sunshine pump because maybe it won’t pan out to be a huge Monday event, but we have ONE GFS run that went against us after a bunch of good ones. Just get some rest, only thing for sure is that tomorrow is another roller coaster.

Lol, 1 hour 18 minutes.

[txtwister78]

The problem is the big storm keeps getting pushed off. It was originally earlier, then Monday, now maybe Wednesday. It’s going to get cold. It’s the darn ripples that are harder. We will know more Friday probably.

Nothing is getting pushed back. If anything, the timing for the Monday storm is being moved up, which is actually what we don’t want. To maximize snow totals, we want a slower, more amplified system, like what the 6z gfs showed. Expect changes to the depictions as the models start to sense different variables of the pattern. The track and evolution is starting to be impacted by the models sensing a leading disturbance before Monday’s main event. Given the complexity of the event, there will assuredly be some variation, and it would not surprise me at all to see the insane totals from this morning come back into play.

One thing to note with this still 4 days away is the GFS has a tendency to be too progressive with systems. Too early to tell if that is what is occurring here so I would wait for a few more runs to see if it reverts back to previous runs showing more precip and a system that digs a little further S

[KeriCarter]

Heavy rain, loud thunder and lots of lightning here in Texarkana. Temp 38. Bring it on Mother Nature!

[rwfromkansas]

Helpful explanation. It has happened before this winter that the solution reverts back to prior solutions.

Sorry to lose my marbles for a sec.

See some showers developing west of Denton on radar.

The problem is the big storm keeps getting pushed off. It was originally earlier, then Monday, now maybe Wednesday. It’s going to get cold. It’s the darn ripples that are harder. We will know more Friday probably.

Nothing is getting pushed back. If anything, the timing for the Monday storm is being moved up, which is actually what we don’t want. To maximize snow totals, we want a slower, more amplified system, like what the 6z gfs showed. Expect changes to the depictions as the models start to sense different variables of the pattern. The track and evolution is starting to be impacted by the models sensing a leading disturbance before Monday’s main event. Given the complexity of the event, there will assuredly be some variation, and it would not surprise me at all to see the insane totals from this morning come back into play.

[cheezyWXguy]

Helpful explanation. It has happened before this winter that the solution reverts back to prior solutions.

See some showers developing west of Denton on radar.

The problem is the big storm keeps getting pushed off. It was originally earlier, then Monday, now maybe Wednesday. It’s going to get cold. It’s the darn ripples that are harder. We will know more Friday probably.

Nothing is getting pushed back. If anything, the timing for the Monday storm is being moved up, which is actually what we don’t want. To maximize snow totals, we want a slower, more amplified system, like what the 6z gfs showed. Expect changes to the depictions as the models start to sense different variables of the pattern. The track and evolution is starting to be impacted by the models sensing a leading disturbance before Monday’s main event. Given the complexity of the event, there will assuredly be some variation, and it would not surprise me at all to see the insane totals from this morning come back into play.

Plus, more showers are popping up to the south and southwest. This event isn’t done yet.

One other thing to consider is that we won’t know anything about mesoscale features, like convective potential or banding, until like a day before the event. Despite the inevitable variability, this is still the closest thing to a shoe-in we’ve seen in a long time