Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

Snow in Dallas/Ft. Worth the 27th!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_39.png

Why do I think you are laughing....

Dang, you caught me!

[Ralph's Weather]

Best thing about the GFS forecast is that it is holding onto a storm with snow potential for that time frame. Its ensembles are all over the place still though. Euro is slower as usual with the SW upper low. Its ensembles are faster though. The GEM is further north with similar timing to the GFS. Its ensembles are generally much further SW though.
It looks pretty warm for a couple days on either side of Christmas with compressional heating ahead of the big low. As it usual with these type systems all will depend on the track, south of I-20 and we get a good snow in North Texas and a Oklahoma track gives us storms.

[hriverajr]

6z GFS showing quite a storm crossing the state a couple of days after Christmas.Lots of cold air too.. lets see what the 12z shows :p

OOPS did not see the other posts..

[TheProfessor]

Those are crazy totals for Oklahoma on the 6z lol. I say bring on snowmaggedon! I need to see if my new coat will survive a Real Ohio winter anyways.

[Ntxw]

JMA just ditched the euro/jamstec and befriended the cfsv2 for the rest of the winter and blowtorch Northeastern half of the US 1877 style. My oh my on the eastern geese...

Cooler surface temps it has for the southern plains.

Jamstec is unrealistic because it has cold DJF and given folks up there are 10F+ Dec that's very unlikely. It's becoming more and more apparent the Super Nino is doing what other super Nino's do. The saving grace for the eastern conus will have to come from the EPO

[Ralph's Weather]

Last two runs of the GFS are very similar with a classic upper low crossing the state dumping very heavy snow on NW Texas and some in western N TX. The last week of the year will be much colder than it has been for any extended period so far this season with highs in the 30s and 40s.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS run, looking a little interesting regarding this storm system:

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS run, looking a little interesting regarding this storm system:

Canadian is remarkably similar from this far out...

[gboudx]

That looks like it would be fun to drive in on the way back to Dallas from New Orleans. Actually the last one posted would work since we would be home by then.

[TheProfessor]

If we could get that low to shift to the southeast a bit we would be in line for wintery fun (if the storm even happens).

[Ntxw]

DFW recorded a freeze this morning at 31F. No freezeless december.

Storm is on the Euro too, however on all of the guidance still 10 days away

[hriverajr]

Of note, the European is much further north with the 500 mb low after Christmas vs the GFS

[Brent]

I don't buy it but it's sure pretty to see.

[hriverajr]

DFW recorded a freeze this morning at 31F. No freezeless december.

Storm is on the Euro too, however on all of the guidance still 10 days away

Interesting in that Del Rio much farther SW got down to 30 this morning... Our mornings have been chilly. I guess we are a bit closer to the cold air source ..... Might be interesting out here later in the heart of winter.

[Brent]

From FWD about the post-Christmas storm:

Highs Christmas Day 65-70... not as terrible as it could be


THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH PROBABLY MEANS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL FACE SOME THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PROVIDE STRONG WIND SHEAR OUT
AHEAD OF IT. SOME MODEL RUNS LIKE THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN
ADVERTISE A THREAT OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. WHILE THIS IS A VALID POSSIBILITY...ANY
SNOW POTENTIAL IS GOING TO BE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW...SOMETHING THAT NO COMPUTER MODEL CAN ACCURATELY
PREDICT 7 TO 9 DAYS OUT...WHICH IS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE RUN-TO-
RUN CHANGES THAT WE HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED WITH THIS FEATURE.

[Brent]

18z GFS looks interesting again:





Temps behind it:

[wxman57]

Euro is a good bit farther north with the snow - up in Kansas and as far south as the northern TX Panhandle.

[Ntxw]

Definitely some changes to occur in the stratosphere the rest of December. Now would be a good time to start seeing it for a January reversal of the AO. Not quite yet the Polar Vortex split but better signs of displacement.

[Ntxw]

DFW recorded a freeze this morning at 31F. No freezeless december.

Storm is on the Euro too, however on all of the guidance still 10 days away

Interesting in that Del Rio much farther SW got down to 30 this morning... Our mornings have been chilly. I guess we are a bit closer to the cold air source ..... Might be interesting out here later in the heart of winter.

The southwest/southern rockies/w-sw Texas has been troughy this year. kind of like a magnet. This configuration of heights have brought us copious rains in 2015 by splitting the jet.

[Ntxw]

Not Texas but...big sigh of relief up in Buffalo! The NWS sure got excited after extending that record for so long. SAved by the Lake Effect


NWS BUFFALO ‏@NWSBUFFALO 2h2 hours ago
Buffalo airport records its first measurable snow of the season.