Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

6z GFS shows 3-5 inches of snow in South Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Definitely liking the trend!

[cycloneye]

Mobile NWS:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
612 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2614 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT ...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDAL E
612 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...MUCH COLDER AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST REGION MONDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...WHILE READINGS MAY ONLY RANGE IN
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST. A HARD FREEZE MAY IMPACT
MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN THE MID 20S...
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. INCREASING NORTH WINDS MAY BRING WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AIRMASS...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...
THERE IS LOOKING TO BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING...
WITH A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION MAY
THEN TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TYPES AND AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS...AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not to sound greedy but if we could get a slight shift north by about 100 miles that might would be historic levels for down here. Just Not sure how much would be snow or what the ratios will be. But this could be something to remember.

[northjaxpro]

This situation is a very complicated and complex one to forecast. Several factors weigh in on how this all will shake down:

Where will the deformation zone set-up?
Will the wetter model solutions pan-out and give many areas a significant winter storm over the extreme southern areas of the Deep South?
Or...

Will the extremely dry, cold arctic airmass moving into the Deep South late Monday suppress the deepest moisture down into the GOM and limit moistue in areas only near the extreme coastal areas?

Also, just how much phasing can get established near or just off the Georgia/South Carolina coast late Tuesday into Wednesday morning? This will be critical in regards for the Jax area getting frozen precip in this time frame. If this system can undergo decent cyclogenesis off the coast early Wednesday, thermal profiles on the back side of this system would bring partial thicknesses to a level that could bring wintry precip across Southeast GA and the Jax area on late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There may be just enough wrap around moisture behind the exiting storm in place to see light snow here briefly before the precipitation ends. It will be a close, close call. If you believe the EURO and a few other model guidance they show a deepening storm off the SE Atlantic coast showing snowfall accumulatons of 6-12 inches along the coastal areas of the Carolinas. That is insane should this come close to verifying!

These are just only a few of the questions to ponder. Hopefully the models will provide the answers to many questions going ino tomorrow. I can't wait to see how the model runs evolve today. Potentially, very interesting times ahead for many of us in the Deep South going through the middle of this week.

[gatorcane]

Interesting snippet from NWS Tampa explaining the difference between a "katafront" and an "anafront" that will be passing through the deep south...

THE ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND DIGGING
OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD
FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE PENINSULA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. OUR USUAL COLD FRONTS ARE WHAT WE REFER TO AS "KATAFRONT
CONFIGURATION"...MEANING THE THE BULK...IF NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION
IS FOUND PRE-FRONTAL. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEN USUALLY QUICKLY
IMPROVED ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED. THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE
CASE WITH THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE PROJECTED SETUP FOR MID-WEEK
IS MORE OF WHAT WE CALL AN "ANAFRONT CONFIGURATION" WHERE THE
RELATIVE FLOW SETS UP TO ALLOW MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL
INTO THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

The 12z package of the models begin with the 12z NAM. Is more north with the precipitation than the 06z run.

60 hours.



72 hours.

[MississippiWx]

12z NAM is insane for snow accumulations. Starts with 7 inches in South MS and goes up the further east you go. Has 15 inches across Southeast Georgia into South Carolina.

[cycloneye]

Yep.

[cycloneye]

This is from Larry Cosgrove Facebook:

12z NAM version depicts a classic linear snow to ice display along and below Interstate 10 from the San Antonio TX metro eastward to near Jacksonville FL. The Houston TX to Tallahassee FL stretch (yes, Lafayette and New Orleans peeps, this means you....) looks to be an utter disaster. Time frame: wee hours of Tuesday (West Texas as snow) to Wednesday night (coastal GA, E SC, E NC).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

12z NAM is insane for snow accumulations. Starts with 7 inches in South MS and goes up the further east you go. Has 15 inches across Southeast Georgia into South Carolina.

Where do you see seven inches at on that map for ms? To me it looks more like 3-4 or are you looking at a more detailed site?

[MississippiWx]

12z NAM is insane for snow accumulations. Starts with 7 inches in South MS and goes up the further east you go. Has 15 inches across Southeast Georgia into South Carolina.

Where do you see seven inches at on that map for ms? To me it looks more like 3-4 or are you looking at a more detailed site?

[Ntxw]

Guys as a reminder, wxman57 contacted wxbell earlier in the season and they said it was not ok to post their map images as it is a paid premium resource unless it was posted on twitter or another outlet from JB or Ryan Maue for the general public keep that in mind. There's numerous other sources we can get this data from.

Other than that, snow on the gulf coast would solidify this winter as one of the greats!

[MississippiWx]

Guys as a reminder, wxman57 contacted wxbell earlier in the season and they said it was not ok to post their map images as it is a paid premium resource unless it was posted on twitter or another outlet from JB or Ryan Maue keep that in mind. There's numerous other sources we can get this data from.

Other than that, snow on the gulf coast would solidify this winter as one of the greats!

Found it posted on another site, so I relayed it. I do not have a WxBell subscription.

[cycloneye]

What he said is correct about Wxbell. A good source to look at the models is Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Mississippi wx,

Wow that's impressive. Don't have to post but what is that showing for my area back west in se LA.

[northjaxpro]

If that 12Z NAM model run snowfall accumulation forecast comes anywhere close to cming to what is depicted above, this woud be historic in this region. That is ridiculous!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: What he said is correct about Wxbell. A good source to look at the models is Levi Cowan's site.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Thanks for posting that last night cycloneye, really good site.

BTW we really enjoyed Puerto Rico and had a great time. Cant wait to go back again. Favorite area was rincon on the west coast. Now back to snow

[MississippiWx]

Mississippi wx,

Wow that's impressive. Don't have to post but what is that showing for my area back west in se LA.

4-5 inches. Not bad! The problem with areas close to the coast is that a lot of it is going to be sleet/freezing rain. NAM is probably not accounting for this in its snowfall forecasts. Even in SE Georgia, they will probably have a mix before transitioning.

[Ntxw]

Here are maps from wxcaster which uses the Kuchera ratio method (takes out the sleet and freezing rain stuff which is a known fact to include on wxbell and some others and causes the maps to go bonkers) which I prefer using. Even this would be a unprecedented snowfall for many in the deep south including the gulf coast if verified by the NAM







GFS is running so that will be interesting if it follows suit

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is running. Let's see what it has instored.