Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxwx]

Im sorry I'm new... but what Im looking at I might be missing something ... but, what did he do wrong, I don't think expressing his concern for this storm(Im under a winter storm watch so I'm also concerned) is doing ANYTHING wrong, I will be very dissapointined if this strom turns out to be worse than expected and I don't want to be part of a thread that critizes the ones who look out for others, using meteroligical data to confirm potential hazards.

[Portastorm]

Im sorry I'm new... but what Im looking at I might be missing something ... but, what did he do wrong, I don't think expressing his concern for this storm(Im under a winter storm watch so I'm also concerned) is doing ANYTHING wrong, I will be very dissapointined if this strom turns out to be worse than expected and I don't want to be part of a thread that critizes the ones who look out for others, using meteroligical data to confirm potential hazards.

I won't speak for Jason as he does so quite well for himself ... but I will say that I don't believe Jason was saying that msstateguy83 did something wrong. He was only responding to the comment of "he did nothing wrong" with "let us, the S2K moderators, be the judge of what is right and wrong on the board." And that is no different from any other online forum I know of.

[jasons2k]

Im sorry I'm new... but what Im looking at I might be missing something ... but, what did he do wrong, I don't think expressing his concern for this storm(Im under a winter storm watch so I'm also concerned) is doing ANYTHING wrong, I will be very dissapointined if this strom turns out to be worse than expected and I don't want to be part of a thread that critizes the ones who look out for others, using meteroligical data to confirm potential hazards.

I won't speak for Jason as he does so quite well for himself ... but I will say that I don't believe Jason was saying that msstateguy83 did something wrong. He was only responding to the comment of "he did nothing wrong" with "let us, the S2K moderators, be the judge of what is right and wrong on the board." And that is no different from any other online forum I know of.

Pretty much...and I'm not discouraging disscussion at all - that's what we're doing here

And all I can add at this point is let's please stay on topic folks. I have deleted enough one-liners for one day.

[rhoby13]

I noticed this morning that the NWS forecast for Austin now includes Rain/Sleet.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Austin&state=TX&site=EWX&textField1=30.267&textField2=-97.743

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER THIS WEEK ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH
RAIN...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THEN TURNING COLDER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...OVERRUNNING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG 500 HPA LOW TO THE WEST..
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWED INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
AND SHOWERS MIXED WITH PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO FORM
QUICKLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND A COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH THESE UNSTABLE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER...SHOWED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...AND MENTIONED THAT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE NORTH TO EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS UNSTABLE PATTERN HAS BEEN SHOWN BY FORECAST SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND ALSO IN SPC DISCUSSIONS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWED COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS
EXPECTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND GATHERS MORE MOISTURE FOR HEAVIER RAINS. IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...JUST BEFORE AND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...SOME OF THE COLD RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO HONDO TO SAN ANTONIO TO YOAKUM.
EXPECT THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE TO EAST PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWED COLDER DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY.
THE LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON...AS COLDER AIR SPILLS ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWED
LOWS BELOW FREEZING.

[funster]

The Upper Low looks impressive on the satellite but wxman57's meteograms say otherwise - at least as far as ice/snow goes for DFW south.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

But sometimes the models are wrong. Sometimes DFW doesnt get snow when it is forecasted and gets snow when it is not forecasted. Perhaps this will be one of those times but probably not.

[Portastorm]

One can surmise that the NWSFOs in the northern half of Texas have their hands full with this storm. It's almost 11 am and we still don't have mid-morning forecast discussions nor do we have updated zone forecasts.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS has upgraded the graphic on their front page. And also updated the SWS. There's also a briefing if anyone wants to listen. BTW, I think it's great they put these briefings out.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/01272010/player.html

[natlib]

I have a true amateur question regarding the movement of low pressure systems. Do forecasters look at strictly the upper air patterns to predict movement or are there other factors that go into forecasting the path of a system.

If a Low does take a different path than forecasted, what usually happens to make a system deviate from its projected path?

[srainhoutx]

One can surmise that the NWSFOs in the northern half of Texas have their hands full with this storm. It's almost 11 am and we still don't have mid-morning forecast discussions nor do we have updated zone forecasts.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1120 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION...

THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZATION ERRORS WHICH NEGATIVELY
IMPACT THE NAM AND GFS SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.

...DEEP VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA...
THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB CENTER
OF THIS VORTEX OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HRS OF THE FCST PERIOD.
AFTER THIS TIME FRAME... THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE VORTEX CENTER
BASICALLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER ON D2... WHICH
IS DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS EASTWARD PROGRESSION VERSIONS OF THE
NAM... AND THEN THE VORTEX FILLS/SWEEPS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND FOR
D3. DURING THIS D2 AND 3 TIME FRAME... THE NAM NOW KEEPS HEIGHTS
HIGHER OVER THE MS VLY INTO THE GRT LAKES/OH VLY WHICH IMPACTS THE
SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW/CLOSED
LOW NEAR MAINE ON D2 APPEARS RATHER COMPARABLE OVER THE PAST 12
HRS BUT DEFINITELY SHOWS A SLOWER TREND IN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA LATE D2 THROUGH D3. NOW THE GFS TRENDS WITH THIS LARGE
SCALE FEATURE ARE ALMOST NIL AND IS A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY... AS
THE COMP FILES INDICATE HARDLY ANY TRENDS FROM 24 HRS AGO. NOT
ONLY WITH THE 500 MB LOW/VORTEX CENTER MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BUT ITS EVENTUAL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO... THE IMPENDING MAINE
COASTAL/CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS EXTREMELY COMPARABLE AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.


...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...
IMMEDIATELY THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAJA CA INTO NRN MEXICO ON D1.
THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE LATE D1 INTO D2 AND ALLOWS UPPER HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE TO INCREASE MORE... THIS IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE LESS DIGGING OF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER
ERN CANADA. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS POTENT SHORT WAVE ON D2 AND 3
OR BEYOND 36 HRS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER AS IT PROCEED
EAST INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MS VLY INTO THE SOUTH/TN VLY.
THIS IS A RATHER SHOCKING TREND FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
WOULD REALLY IMPACT THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER. NOW THE 12Z GFS
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO SHOWS NO TRENDS THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HRS
WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HRS... THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND WITH THE FEATURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM BUT IS
STILL STREAKING/SHEARING OUT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL COAST.


...PAC TROUGH ARRIVING INTO WEST COAST/WEST LATE D2/FRI INTO
D3/SAT...
THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING SIMILAR PROGRESSION WITH THE SRN PORTION
OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO CA LATE D2 INTO D3 WITH
A TREND TO A DEEPER FEATURE... WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS A 500 MB LOW CENTER OFF THE NW COAST
AND IS SLOWER TO STEER THE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS INTO THE NW.
OVERALL THE 12Z GFS APPEARS RATHER COMPARABLE TO ITS RUN FROM 12
HRS AGO ON AN INITIAL VORT LIFTING/REMAINING OFF THE NW COAST
BEFORE A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO CA FOR LATE D2 INTO D3...
AND WITH THIS FEATURE THE 12Z GFS APPEARS RATHER CONSISTENT WITH
PERHAPS A MUCH BROADER TROUGH/LOWERING OF HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO
THE GRT BASIN FOR SAT.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER

I suspect some waiting on the ECMWF is in order...

[Weatherdude20]

Indeed !

[Ntxw]

This storm is like a girlfriend\wife, so unpredictable. They do what they wanna do...we're about 24-48 hours from it and we still don't have a clear picture of it, sigh.

[PineyWoods]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1120 AM EST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC

...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...
IMMEDIATELY THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAJA CA INTO NRN MEXICO ON D1.
THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE LATE D1 INTO D2 AND ALLOWS UPPER HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE TO INCREASE MORE... THIS IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE LESS DIGGING OF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER
ERN CANADA. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS POTENT SHORT WAVE ON D2 AND 3
OR BEYOND 36 HRS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER AS IT PROCEED
EAST INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MS VLY INTO THE SOUTH/TN VLY.
THIS IS A RATHER SHOCKING TREND FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
WOULD REALLY IMPACT THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER. NOW THE 12Z GFS
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO SHOWS NO TRENDS THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HRS
WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HRS... THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND WITH THE FEATURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM BUT IS
STILL STREAKING/SHEARING OUT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL COAST.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER

I suspect some waiting on the ECMWF is in order...

I don't read the models very well, but by this data, is it suggesting the low moving over the panhandle and Oklahoma might be moving slightly south of its' original forcasted track and slower too?

If so would this allow for the cold air to move in or will the cold air hold back until the low moves through?

Thanks

[Ntxw]

No one really knows for sure right now as is with every major storm. We only have hints. As of right now expect winter precip to be from the panhandle through to Oklahoma, that is fairly certain. Anywhere else (unless new data suggest otherwise) expect lots of rain with maybe a bit of icy patches tomorrow morning from the Red River counties on north\west.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

HPC 12Z NAM Outlier...12Z ECMWF looks similar though... we'll see how things get sorted out... more thoughts later...

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1227 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010

VALID JAN 27/1200 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z MODEL EVALUATION...

THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZATION ERRORS WHICH NEGATIVELY
IMPACT THE NAM AND GFS SHORT RANGE FORECASTS.

...DEEP VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND

THE 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB CENTER
OF THIS VORTEX OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HRS OF THE FCST PERIOD.
AFTER THIS TIME FRAME... THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THE VORTEX CENTER
BASICALLY STATIONARY NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER ON D2... WHICH
IS DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS EASTWARD PROGRESSION VERSIONS OF THE
NAM... AND THEN THE VORTEX FILLS/SWEEPS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND FOR
D3. DURING THIS D2 AND 3 TIME FRAME... THE NAM NOW KEEPS HEIGHTS
HIGHER OVER THE MS VLY INTO THE GRT LAKES/OH VLY WHICH IMPACTS THE
SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW/CLOSED
LOW NEAR MAINE ON D2 APPEARS RATHER COMPARABLE OVER THE PAST 12
HRS BUT DEFINITELY SHOWS A SLOWER TREND IN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
NOVA SCOTIA LATE D2 THROUGH D3. NOW THE GFS TRENDS WITH THIS LARGE
SCALE FEATURE ARE ALMOST NIL AND IS A MODEL OF CONSISTENCY... AS
THE COMP FILES INDICATE HARDLY ANY TRENDS FROM 24 HRS AGO. NOT
ONLY WITH THE 500 MB LOW/VORTEX CENTER MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BUT ITS EVENTUAL DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND. ALSO... THE IMPENDING MAINE
COASTAL/CLOSED 500 MB LOW IS EXTREMELY COMPARABLE AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.

OVERALL THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... 00Z ECMWF AND 09Z SREF MEAN
APPEAR IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE VORTEX CENTER AND ITS
INVOLVEMENT OF LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS INTO THE NERN SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT 84 HRS. ON THE IMPENDING COASTAL/CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR ERN MAINE AROUND 36 HRS AND ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND ON D2/3... THE 12Z NAM IS A
COMPLETE SLOW OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN...
00Z ECMWF AND 09Z SREF MEAN.


...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 09Z SREF
MEAN AND 12Z UKMET

IMMEDIATELY THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BAJA CA INTO NRN MEXICO ON D1.
THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE LATE D1 INTO D2 AND ALLOWS UPPER HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE TO INCREASE MORE... THIS IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE LESS DIGGING OF HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC VORTEX OVER
ERN CANADA. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS POTENT SHORT WAVE ON D2 AND 3
OR BEYOND 36 HRS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER AS IT PROCEED
EAST INTO THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MS VLY INTO THE SOUTH/TN VLY.
THIS IS A RATHER SHOCKING TREND FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
WOULD REALLY IMPACT THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER. NOW THE 12Z GFS
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO SHOWS NO TRENDS THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HRS
WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. AFTER 36 HRS... THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHT SLOWING TREND WITH THE FEATURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM BUT IS
STILL STREAKING/SHEARING OUT THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL COAST.

WELL BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY... THE 12Z GFS IS SUPERIOR OVER
THE 12Z NAM AND WHEN ADDING THE 00Z ECMWF... 12Z UKMET AND 09Z
SREF MEAN TO THE EQUATION... THESE THREE SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
COMPARABLE TO THE 12Z GFS... WHICH LEAVES THE 12Z NAM A
CONSIDERABLE OUTLIER ON THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HRS... THE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY APPEARS
RATHER COMPARABLE BUT THE NAM DEVELOPS THIS VIRTUALLY OUT OF
NOWHERE/FEEDBACK VORT OVER NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE AROUND 30 HRS...
WHICH EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THIS EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER
SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DRIVING EAST THROUGH THE SRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. THE 12Z GFS/UKMET ...00Z EC AND 09Z SREF MEAN ALL ALLOW
THE NRN STREAM TO REMAIN DOMINANT... WHICH ALLOWS THE SRN STREAM
FEATURE DEPARTING TX TO DE-AMPLIFY AND SHOULD SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE... THE NAM DOES
NOT LOOK THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE FOURSOME THROUGH 36 TO 48 HRS BUT
GRADUALLY IMPACTS THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE
SECONDARY LOW OFF THE NC COAST AT 84 HRS. AT THIS POINT... FOLLOW
A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z UK
AND 09Z SREF MEAN.


...PAC TROUGH ARRIVING INTO WEST COAST/WEST LATE D2/FRI INTO
D3/SAT...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/UKMET BLEND

THE 12Z NAM IS INDICATING SIMILAR PROGRESSION WITH THE SRN PORTION
OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO CA LATE D2 INTO D3 WITH
A TREND TO A DEEPER FEATURE... WHILE THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS A 500 MB LOW CENTER OFF THE NW COAST
AND IS SLOWER TO STEER THE LOWERING OF HEIGHTS INTO THE NW.
OVERALL THE 12Z GFS APPEARS RATHER COMPARABLE TO ITS RUN FROM 12
HRS AGO ON AN INITIAL VORT LIFTING/REMAINING OFF THE NW COAST
BEFORE A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO CA FOR LATE D2 INTO D3...
AND WITH THIS FEATURE THE 12Z GFS APPEARS RATHER CONSISTENT WITH
PERHAPS A MUCH BROADER TROUGH/LOWERING OF HEIGHTS SPREADING INTO
THE GRT BASIN FOR SAT.

OVERALL THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SPREAD WITH THE PAC TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CA INTO NV/UT. IF ANYTHING... THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE LOWERING OF UPPER HEIGHTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET SEEM PRETTY
COMPARABLE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR D2 AND 3.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

MUSHER

[Ntxw]

From what I can see on the EC is that it's warmer.

[Portastorm]

Yes, the Euro is warmer because it is further north with the track of the low.

What concerns me though is where the Euro initializes the low off Baja. See that? Looks like it initialized the low too far north based on satellite data we have seen this morning.

[Ntxw]

To me the low on satellite seems to have gone as far south as it can go, it looks to be moving east maybe a jog north?

[msstateguy83]

i thought i saw a slight ene ward jog in the last frame but still appears more eastward then anything to me anyone else have any input?

[Weatherdude20]

The satellite Imagery im observing keeps the low on a due eastward track if not the slightest slightest slightest bit ese.

[Tejas89]

This smells of the typical DFW ice event over the last few years. Bridges and overpasses. Won't get cold enough for anything solid to fall. NWS has the line drawn through the heart of the metroplex. Of course things can change drastically in 24 hours, as we all know!