Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Dallasaggie01]

Took a ride to the Lowe's in Murphy to pickup a couple outdoor faucet insulators. There was about 5 other people there buying the same thing and rubber insulation for exposed pipes. Plus, I saw people on the checkout buying that stuff as well. Good to see people are taking this seriously.

Yes that is good, but you know I just have to laugh when the local radio station just called for chance of thunderstorms tonight with a low of 42. No wonder people won't take the local weather reports seriously because they're always "wrong".

[txagwxman]

ECMWF is a light snow for Houston / College Station / Victoria for Friday.

[gboudx]

Yes that is good, but you know I just have to laugh when the local radio station just called for chance of thunderstorms tonight with a low of 42. No wonder people won't take the local weather reports seriously because they're always "wrong".

The local TV mets were on it this morning pretty well. And KRLD is on top of it as well.

[orangeblood]

That Winter Storm warning should be extened east ward to include all of DFW area by the evening update.

I don't know about warning but advisory would be warranted by the EURO. At least .10 qpf of all snow (more before but I don't know how much of that is rain/snow/ice). SPS 6+...[

There's going to a window from around 3-4am until around 7-8am for some very heavy sleet/snow across the metroplex. This window will be greater the further north and west you go across the metroplex. I would think All counties under winter storm watches currently should be upgraded to warnings later on today. And once again accumulation numbers adjusted upwards as we get closer to the event. Still really conservative numbers coming from the Fort Worth office considering the amount of precip forecast to fall. NWS HPC has anywhere from 1 inch liquid amounts upwards to close to 2 inches across numerous areas in North Texas.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

There's going to a window from around 3-4am until around 7-8am for some very heavy sleet/snow across the metroplex. This window will be greater the further north and west you go across the metroplex. I would think All counties under winter storm watches currently should be upgraded to warnings later on today. And once again accumulation numbers adjusted upwards as we get closer to the event. Still really conservative numbers coming from the Fort Worth office considering the amount of precip forecast to fall. NWS HPC has anywhere from 1 inch liquid amounts upwards to close to 2 inches across numerous areas in North Texas.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

If it were me, I'd go ahead and put up warnings since there is heavy travel around the metroplex just to side with caution. Temps are going to be so important. I'm not so worried about precip amounts holding back accums but temps. It's moving pretty fast right now so I definitely think it will arrive sooner. The precip will be extremely heavy (HIRES) and will probably help with cooling more than anticipated imo.

[Nederlander]

Local station here in Beaumont calling for 10% Thursday and 20% Friday (frozen precip.)

[southerngale]

Local station here in Beaumont calling for 10% Thursday and 20% Friday (frozen precip.)

Is that from KBMT? That was their forecast yesterday as well. I wonder if they've updated or sticking with that. Greg posted on FB this morning sleet and snow possible Friday.

Are you back in Nederland?

[CaptinCrunch]

There's going to a window from around 3-4am until around 7-8am for some very heavy sleet/snow across the metroplex. This window will be greater the further north and west you go across the metroplex. I would think All counties under winter storm watches currently should be upgraded to warnings later on today. And once again accumulation numbers adjusted upwards as we get closer to the event. Still really conservative numbers coming from the Fort Worth office considering the amount of precip forecast to fall. NWS HPC has anywhere from 1 inch liquid amounts upwards to close to 2 inches across numerous areas in North Texas.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

If it were me, I'd go ahead and put up warnings since there is heavy travel around the metroplex just to side with caution. Temps are going to be so important. I'm not so worried about precip amounts holding back accums but temps. It's moving pretty fast right now so I definitely think it will arrive sooner. The precip will be extremely heavy (HIRES) and will probably help with cooling more than anticipated imo.

Not to forget all the Football fans here in the metro area for the Super Bowl.

FYI Steelers just arrived at the FTW Omni Hotel....I work here in DT FTW....GO PACKERS!!

[LearnedHat]

If the the cold air gets to DFW before mid-morning - this could be a disaster. Lots of folks coming into the airport - lots of construction and bridges in and out of there.



This isn't an official or professional forecast (or a forecast at all for that matter). It is some championship caliber angst however.

[wxman57]

Both the NAM and the GFS for my area show absolutely cruel results. We are, as of now, going to be sitting at about 33/34 degrees with rain! There must be a pocket of warm air above the surface. I can't imagine seeing all our neighbors in TX having a snow day while we get a 33 degree rain! I am going to really cross my fingers that temps trend down so we can have some snow. The GFS has about .35 inches of QPF so if that came in as snow we would have 1.5 - 3 inches of fun white stuff. Please, Mother Nature, be kind!!

The Arctic air is plunging straight south through TX, not east through LA. SE LA will have to enjoy the cold rain this time.

[Big O]

ECMWF is a light snow for Houston / College Station / Victoria for Friday.

What about Corpus Christi south into the Rio Grande Valley?

[Ntxw]

ECMWF is a light snow for Houston / College Station / Victoria for Friday.

What about Corpus Christi south into the Rio Grande Valley?

It'll be a close call. Very cold aloft, but 35-38 at the surface. If it's heavy enough (0.19 qpf) could drag it down all the way.

[wxman57]

ECMWF is a light snow for Houston / College Station / Victoria for Friday.

What about Corpus Christi south into the Rio Grande Valley?

With the Arctic air plunging straight south to the Valley, you may get as cold in Corpus Christi as we will in Houston. And there may be a bit more moisture to work with as far as snow potential Thu nite/Fri.

This map gives you a good idea where the cold air is going (south, not east):

[DonWrk]

Man, NWS site has been down for me for a good while now. Must be getting a ton of traffic. Maybe they should upgrade their servers.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

.UPDATE...
HAD A CHANCE TO LOOK AT SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE...AND NOW HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE
CWA. 9Z SREF PRECIP PROBS AS WELL AS GFS/NAM FORECASTS INDICATE
THAT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY NW OF A CISCO...MINERAL
WELLS...DECATUR...GAINESVILLE LINE...WHERE WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FRONTOGENESIS AND DYNAMIC
LIFTING SHOULD COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING FOR HEAVY
SNOWS THERE. SNOW COMBINED WITH 25-35 MPH WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. IN
ADDITION...THIS PART OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SOME WRAP
AROUND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX....WILL LEAVE THE
WATCH AS IS AND MAKE SOME MORE DECISIONS ON WHERE TO UPGRADE FOR
WARNINGS AND ISSUE NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THIS AREA IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THE
EXTENT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION. WE DO NOT FEEL WE WILL MEET
OFFICIAL ACCUMULATION WARNING CRITERIA IN THIS REGION...BUT DO
BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING WATER WILL END UP FREEZING
TO ALL ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S BY MID MORNING
MAKING FOR SOME MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN...THE 4KM WRF FORECASTS A SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND RACE OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AS SQUALL LINES OFTEN DO. THIS WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE
REMAINING INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA AS WELL AS AFTERNOON TRENDS AND
MAKE SOME FINAL DECISIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY/S FORECAST UPDATE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT OVER THE
AREA AS YESTERDAYS WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG OUT OVER OUR
AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS AND AMEND PRECIP TYPE TO DE-
EMPHASIZE FREEZING RAIN IN FAVOR OF SLEET/SNOW.

[orangeblood]

Ntxw, it's all about figuring out the ratio of frozen precip/total precip across the metroplex. If had to take a guess, what do you think that ratio is going to be ?

[txagwxman]

More teens next week!

[txagwxman]

ECMWF is a light snow for Houston / College Station / Victoria for Friday.

What about Corpus Christi south into the Rio Grande Valley?

With the Arctic air plunging straight south to the Valley, you may get as cold in Corpus Christi as we will in Houston. And there may be a bit more moisture to work with as far as snow potential Thu nite/Fri.

1983 outbreak it got colder in Corpus first before Houston.

Have to love the coriolis effect.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, it's all about figuring out the ratio of frozen precip/total precip across the metroplex. If had to take a guess, what do you think that ratio is going to be ?

I have no idea. Too much work to figure that out lol, but rough guess 15:1 or so when the temps get into the 20s isn't impossible. GFS MOS 12z is ridiculous with temps. Has HIGHS in the mid teens for DFW. 14 to be exact...Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

More teens next week!

And the AO ensembles suggest a tanking AO near Valentines Day. Oh joy!