Moderator: S2k Moderators
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Tejas89 wrote:This smells of the typical DFW ice event over the last few years. Bridges and overpasses. Won't get cold enough for anything solid to fall. NWS has the line drawn through the heart of the metroplex. Of course things can change drastically in 24 hours, as we all know!
Ntxw wrote:Tejas89 wrote:This smells of the typical DFW ice event over the last few years. Bridges and overpasses. Won't get cold enough for anything solid to fall. NWS has the line drawn through the heart of the metroplex. Of course things can change drastically in 24 hours, as we all know!
The eastplexers dread that line
msstateguy83 wrote:LIVE WEATHER BRIEFING FROM KOCO TV OKC CHIEF METEOROLOGIST RICK MITCHELL @ 1PM
http://www.koco.com/video/22356041/index.html
Weatherdude20 wrote:wow
HockeyTx82 wrote:Weatherdude20 wrote:wow
Wow what? Ok so I have been slammed all day at work. I went back in and read what I could from the previous posts, but is the Low tracking further south now? How are things looking for NTX? Rain, frozen stuff? Anyhow, not trying to get out of reading everything, but just don't have much time today.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/0000 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
...DAY 1...
...SYNOPSIS...
PTRN ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN MIXED WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPG SWD
TO THE UPR GRT LKS...WHILE SPLIT FLOW/WEAK REX BLOCK REMAINS OVR
THE WRN U.S.. MDLS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE POLAR VORTEX AND ASSOCD
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVR THE NERN U.S.. PRBLMS ARISE OVR THE GRT
BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLNS AS TIMG/STRENGTHEN OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV EVOLVG INTO A POTENT VORTEX IS SHOWG SOME DIFFS ON DAY
1...WITH LRGR DIFFS IN LATER PDS.
...NERN U.S....
SVRL SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
AND PULL STG HGT FALLS/SFC COLD FNT SEWD ACRS THE REGION THAT WL
PROVIDE A PD OF DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT ERLY IN THE PD. INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR ACRS THE WARMER LKS WL INDUCE LK EFFECT SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FNTL BNDRY WITH LCLLY HVY SNOWS TO THE SE OF THE GRT
LKS. SYNOPTIC MSTR CONTRIBUTION IS NOT THAT GRT...SO NOT XPCTG
REALLY BIG AMTS AT THIS TIME. SOME LGT PCPN WL FALL ERLY TNGT THRU
THE OH VLY TO MID MS VLY ALNG/AHD OF THE SHRTWV/SFC BNDRY.
...INTERIOR SWRN U.S. INTO SRN PLNS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BREWING OVR THE REGION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SLGT DIFFS IN THE GUID. ALSO CONCERNED ABT CNVCTN DVLPG ON THU AND
PSBLY INTERRUPTING THE STG SRLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION. SOME
GUID IS SHOWG SIGNS OF FEEDBACK WITH QUESTIONABLE MIDLVL SHRTWVS
DVLPG AHD OF THE MAIN MIDLVL FEATURE OVR THE SRN HI PLNS. SHRTWV
OF CONCERN IS WRKG THRU NWRN MEX THIS AFTN...UNDER A HIER LAT RDG.
ADDTNL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPG THRU THE GRT BASIN WL LKLY PHASE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV INTO THE A CLSD LOW OVR ERN NM ON
THU. PRBLMS ARISE DUE TO SOME GUID...ESPCLY THE NAM FORMG A LEAD
SHRTWV AHD OF THE MAIN SYS THAT RESULTS IN A VRY COMPACT CLSD LOW.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG A LEAD SHRTWV...BUT MUCH WEAKER
AND AS A RESULT...A MUCH BROADER CLSD LOW DVLPG OVR THE REGION.
THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLU. PCPN FM THE MDLS IS VARIABLE AS THEY ARE
HANDLING THE MOIST INFLOW/LOLVL THERMAL FORCG DIFFERENTLY. PRBLM
WE ARE HAVG IS THE BIG PCPN AMTS OVR THE SRN TX PHNDL...WHICH ARE
MUCH ABV SEASONAL NRMLS AND ACTUALLY QUITE HI FOR EVEN A VRY
MOIST/WRM SUMMER DAY. MSTR FEEDG NWD FM THE GULF OF MEX WL CONT TO
SATURATE THE REGION TNGT WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT OVR THE SRN
ROCKIES ERLY TNGT...THEN SPRDG EWD ALNG/N THE SFC/8H BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE SRN PLNS. MDLS SHOW VRY STG LOLVL THERMAL
FORCG/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STG CVRG IN THE 8H-7H LYR...ALTHO THERE
ARE DIFFS IN PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION OF THE STGR LOLVL CVRG. SREF PW
ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML OVR THE SRN HI PLNS ERLY THU
MRNG...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL TX BY THU AFTN AS HGT
FALLS PUSH ACRS THE REGION AND INITIAL UPR JET STREAK PUSHES EWD.
MDLS ARE HINTING AT CNVCTN EVOLVG INTO PSBLY A SQUALL LN AND MOVG
EWD THRU NRN TX...ALNG/S OF THE E-W FNTL BNDRY...WITH CELLS DVLPG
SWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.25 INCHES IS FCST
THRU CNTRL TX THAT IS ALIGNED WITH A ZONE OF MOD/STG LOLVL
CVRG/LIS BLO ZERO AND COULD EASILY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. LATER
TNGT AND ESPCLY ON THU THE INCRSG SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX WL
SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES WITH VALUES 3-5 STDS ABV NRML
AIMED INTO NWRN TX ERLY...THEN SHIFTING INTO CNTRL TX BY THE END
OF THE PD. THIS IS ANOTHER GD SIGN OF CNVCTN WRKG EWD AND BCMG
ALIGNED WITH THE MOIST AXIS/MST FLUX AXIS. WITH THE CLSD LOW STILL
BACK OVR NM BY LATE IN THE PD...THERE COULD BE A SCNDRY SWATH OF
MOD PCPN ASSOCD WITH AN UPR JET STREAK THAT WOULD FAVOR PULLING
PCPN NWWD THRU THE NRN TX PHNDL INTO NERN NM. TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE SIX HR PROGS. OVERALL...XPCT A LRG REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN
THRU THE REGION WITH THE HVIER PCPN FOCUSED FM NWRN INTO NCNTRL TX
WHERE CVNCTN COULD BOOST RNFL AMTS TO 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
PCPN TYPE REMAINS A VRY DIFFICULT FCST AS TIMG OF THE SYS MOVG EWD
WL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PCPN TYPE. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS THRU THE REGION.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...
MID/UPR CTR SPINNING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DAY 2 AS IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE OVER THE S CTRL U.S. THE
REMNANT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S....REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE SAT. STRONG LOW LVL
INFLOW OVERLAPPED BY FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MDT/HVY PCPN THAT SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY FROM ERN
KS/OK/TX TO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATL STATES. THE HPC FORECAST
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM...SUPPRESSING AMTS FURTHER TO THE S
WHILE ADVANCING PCPN MORE RAPIDLY TO THE E THAN THE NAM. AS NOTED
IN THE PMDHMD...THE NAM...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS WERE THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREFMEAN WHICH SERVED AS A BASIS FOR THE MANUAL
FORECAST. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE OF PRODUCTS FOR INFO
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
srainhoutx wrote:HPC QPF Disco...perhaps some of the questions will be answered after reading and why things are so fluid...as I noted yesterday there appeared to be some convective issues seen at that time in some of the guidance. That senario is creating problems in the form of convective feedback issues in todays runs. Stay Tuned. It's going to be a bumpy ride...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010
PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 28/0000 UTC THRU JAN 31/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
...DAY 1...
...SYNOPSIS...
PTRN ACRS NOAM WL REMAIN MIXED WITH A DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPG SWD
TO THE UPR GRT LKS...WHILE SPLIT FLOW/WEAK REX BLOCK REMAINS OVR
THE WRN U.S.. MDLS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE POLAR VORTEX AND ASSOCD
DEEPENING ARCTIC AIR OVR THE NERN U.S.. PRBLMS ARISE OVR THE GRT
BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLNS AS TIMG/STRENGTHEN OF UPSTREAM
SHRTWV EVOLVG INTO A POTENT VORTEX IS SHOWG SOME DIFFS ON DAY
1...WITH LRGR DIFFS IN LATER PDS.
...NERN U.S....
SVRL SHRTWVS ARE FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF THE POLAR VORTEX
AND PULL STG HGT FALLS/SFC COLD FNT SEWD ACRS THE REGION THAT WL
PROVIDE A PD OF DECENT SYNOPTIC LIFT ERLY IN THE PD. INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR ACRS THE WARMER LKS WL INDUCE LK EFFECT SNOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FNTL BNDRY WITH LCLLY HVY SNOWS TO THE SE OF THE GRT
LKS. SYNOPTIC MSTR CONTRIBUTION IS NOT THAT GRT...SO NOT XPCTG
REALLY BIG AMTS AT THIS TIME. SOME LGT PCPN WL FALL ERLY TNGT THRU
THE OH VLY TO MID MS VLY ALNG/AHD OF THE SHRTWV/SFC BNDRY.
...INTERIOR SWRN U.S. INTO SRN PLNS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM BREWING OVR THE REGION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
SLGT DIFFS IN THE GUID. ALSO CONCERNED ABT CNVCTN DVLPG ON THU AND
PSBLY INTERRUPTING THE STG SRLY MSTR FLUX INTO THE REGION. SOME
GUID IS SHOWG SIGNS OF FEEDBACK WITH QUESTIONABLE MIDLVL SHRTWVS
DVLPG AHD OF THE MAIN MIDLVL FEATURE OVR THE SRN HI PLNS. SHRTWV
OF CONCERN IS WRKG THRU NWRN MEX THIS AFTN...UNDER A HIER LAT RDG.
ADDTNL SHRTWV ENERGY DROPG THRU THE GRT BASIN WL LKLY PHASE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV INTO THE A CLSD LOW OVR ERN NM ON
THU. PRBLMS ARISE DUE TO SOME GUID...ESPCLY THE NAM FORMG A LEAD
SHRTWV AHD OF THE MAIN SYS THAT RESULTS IN A VRY COMPACT CLSD LOW.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUID IS SHOWG A LEAD SHRTWV...BUT MUCH WEAKER
AND AS A RESULT...A MUCH BROADER CLSD LOW DVLPG OVR THE REGION.
THIS IS THE FAVORED SOLU. PCPN FM THE MDLS IS VARIABLE AS THEY ARE
HANDLING THE MOIST INFLOW/LOLVL THERMAL FORCG DIFFERENTLY. PRBLM
WE ARE HAVG IS THE BIG PCPN AMTS OVR THE SRN TX PHNDL...WHICH ARE
MUCH ABV SEASONAL NRMLS AND ACTUALLY QUITE HI FOR EVEN A VRY
MOIST/WRM SUMMER DAY. MSTR FEEDG NWD FM THE GULF OF MEX WL CONT TO
SATURATE THE REGION TNGT WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT OVR THE SRN
ROCKIES ERLY TNGT...THEN SPRDG EWD ALNG/N THE SFC/8H BAROCLINIC
ZONE INTO THE SRN PLNS. MDLS SHOW VRY STG LOLVL THERMAL
FORCG/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STG CVRG IN THE 8H-7H LYR...ALTHO THERE
ARE DIFFS IN PLACEMENT/ORIENTATION OF THE STGR LOLVL CVRG. SREF PW
ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 STDS ABV NRML OVR THE SRN HI PLNS ERLY THU
MRNG...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL TX BY THU AFTN AS HGT
FALLS PUSH ACRS THE REGION AND INITIAL UPR JET STREAK PUSHES EWD.
MDLS ARE HINTING AT CNVCTN EVOLVG INTO PSBLY A SQUALL LN AND MOVG
EWD THRU NRN TX...ALNG/S OF THE E-W FNTL BNDRY...WITH CELLS DVLPG
SWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.25 INCHES IS FCST
THRU CNTRL TX THAT IS ALIGNED WITH A ZONE OF MOD/STG LOLVL
CVRG/LIS BLO ZERO AND COULD EASILY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. LATER
TNGT AND ESPCLY ON THU THE INCRSG SRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX WL
SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES WITH VALUES 3-5 STDS ABV NRML
AIMED INTO NWRN TX ERLY...THEN SHIFTING INTO CNTRL TX BY THE END
OF THE PD. THIS IS ANOTHER GD SIGN OF CNVCTN WRKG EWD AND BCMG
ALIGNED WITH THE MOIST AXIS/MST FLUX AXIS. WITH THE CLSD LOW STILL
BACK OVR NM BY LATE IN THE PD...THERE COULD BE A SCNDRY SWATH OF
MOD PCPN ASSOCD WITH AN UPR JET STREAK THAT WOULD FAVOR PULLING
PCPN NWWD THRU THE NRN TX PHNDL INTO NERN NM. TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE SIX HR PROGS. OVERALL...XPCT A LRG REGION OF LGT/MOD PCPN
THRU THE REGION WITH THE HVIER PCPN FOCUSED FM NWRN INTO NCNTRL TX
WHERE CVNCTN COULD BOOST RNFL AMTS TO 2-3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
PCPN TYPE REMAINS A VRY DIFFICULT FCST AS TIMG OF THE SYS MOVG EWD
WL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN PCPN TYPE. SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON
SNOW/ICE ACCUMS THRU THE REGION.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES...
MID/UPR CTR SPINNING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE DAY 1/EARLY DAY 2 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DAY 2 AS IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA OF STRONG CONFLUENCE OVER THE S CTRL U.S. THE
REMNANT SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S....REACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE SAT. STRONG LOW LVL
INFLOW OVERLAPPED BY FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MDT/HVY PCPN THAT SHOULD ADVANCE STEADILY FROM ERN
KS/OK/TX TO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATL STATES. THE HPC FORECAST
GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM...SUPPRESSING AMTS FURTHER TO THE S
WHILE ADVANCING PCPN MORE RAPIDLY TO THE E THAN THE NAM. AS NOTED
IN THE PMDHMD...THE NAM...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS WERE THE
GFS/ECMWF/SREFMEAN WHICH SERVED AS A BASIS FOR THE MANUAL
FORECAST. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE OF PRODUCTS FOR INFO
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecasts. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure. Expect rain but IF anything else 'special' happens don't be shocked.Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecast. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.
Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecast. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.
Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Alright I'll give this a shot hopefully I'm in the ballpark and not way off. the NAM (a reliable and good resolution model in the short range) has changed direction somewhat in that it wants to create a merge of energy not seen well by the models prior. What could happen (again depicted by this particular model) is a strengthening more compact (powerful) low which will play havoc in forecasts. Bottom line, no one really knows for sure.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests
