Texas Winter 2010-2011

[citymgr]

Just this from the LCRA.
…An Extended Period of Very Cold Temperatures Expected throughout the Week…

Big changes in the weather will take place over the next 24 hours as some of the coldest air in many years plunges south into Texas. I urge everyone to take advantage of today’s mild temperatures to make preparations for an extended period of cold weather that will feature hard freezes and bitterly cold temperatures across the entire region.

Forecasters continue to monitor the progress of a strong arctic cold front that has moved out of Canada and is now located across northern Wyoming and central South Dakota. This front is expected to reach The Hill Country and Central Texas regions around or just before daybreak Tuesday morning and the coastal plains region mid to late morning Tuesday. But before the big front moves through, we have some other weather to deal with. Today, a weak cold front has sagged south into Central Texas. Readings behind the front are in the 50s. But this front should move back north as a warm front this afternoon, allowing for a return of mild air. Today’s temperature will generally reach the low 70s under a mostly cloudy sky.

Tonight, a vigorous trough of low pressure tracking northeast out of the Desert Southwest will begin to approach northwest Texas. This system will cause the development of rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country this evening and across the rest of the region after midnight. Some of the thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country could be strong to severe. Rain and scattered thunderstorms look to continue into Tuesday morning, with the precipitation ending from west to east late morning into the early afternoon. As the arctic front presses into the northern Hill Country after midnight, some of the rain will change over to sleet and snow. This area of wintery precipitation is expected to generally occur north of a line stretching from Lampasas to Menard to El Dorado. Here, snow and ice accumulations to near 1 inch will be possible. But across the rest of the region, I expect the precipitation to be stay all rain as the precipitation should end before the temperature goes below freezing.

Weather conditions will turn very windy and much colder behind the cold front on Tuesday. Expect north winds to increase to around 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. The temperature will drop quickly from the 50s ahead of the front into the 30s. Tuesday afternoon, readings will likely fall into the upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s across the coastal plains region. The sky will stay mostly cloudy Tuesday night and it will remain very windy with north winds of 20-30 mph. The temperature will become very cold! I expect lows Wednesday morning in the middle teens across the Hill Country, the upper teens across Central Texas and the low 20s coastal plains.

Wednesday’s weather will continue mostly cloudy, windy and very cold. North winds will be in the range of 10-20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. Locations across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas will likely not warm above freezing. High temperatures will include the upper 20s to 30 degrees Hill Country, near 30-34 degrees central and mid to upper 30s toward the coast.

I expect the coldest temperatures of the week to occur Wednesday night. Wind speeds will finally decrease. Lows Thursday morning will include the upper single digits to low teens Hill Country, the middle teens across Central Texas and near 20-22 degrees coastal plains region. A mostly cloudy to cloudy sky along with cold temperatures will continue Thursday. High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions will warm to the low and mid 30s. Highs toward the coast will reach the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

A chance for snow flurries looks to develop late Thursday night into Friday when a trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico and moves across South Texas. The best area for precipitation with this system looks to occur across Central and South Texas. With the lower atmosphere still relatively dry and temperatures cold, I don’t expect much more than a dusting of snow flurries across the area, including the coastal plains region . Lows Friday morning will include the upper teens across the Hill Country, the low 20s across Central Texas and the middle 20s toward the coast. High temperatures Friday will be around 40 degrees. The threat for snow and precipitation should end Friday afternoon.

A warm up looks to develop Saturday into Sunday as southerly winds return to the area. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to 50 degrees Saturday and the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. These milder readings should last into early next week. But I will caution that long-range forecast solutions are showing signs of more arctic air spreading south into Texas around the middle of next week.

This is going to be a very cold week. I urge everyone to make preparations for the bitterly cold temperatures and the extended period with readings staying below freezing.

Bob

[Portastorm]

Ntxw, it's all about figuring out the ratio of frozen precip/total precip across the metroplex. If had to take a guess, what do you think that ratio is going to be ?

I have no idea. Too much work to figure that out lol, but rough guess 15:1 or so when the temps get into the 20s isn't impossible. GFS MOS 12z is ridiculous with temps. Has HIGHS in the mid teens for DFW. 14 to be exact...Wednesday.

While the 10:1 ratio is more common than not in snow events, I would concur with Ntxw's 15:1 ratio as a WAG. You'll be dealing with gusty winds as well which should keep the ratios down somewhat.

[ColdFusion]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN...THE 4KM WRF FORECASTS A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND RACE OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SQUALL LINES OFTEN DO. THIS WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.

That is an interesting snippet. So if a squall line develops in front of the cold, it diminishes what DFW and East will experience as far as any kind of frozen precip. Wonder if that's what will end up happening.

[citymgr]

Attached is from a briefing this morning.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 0Brief.pdf

[Ntxw]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011

. HOWEVER THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL CONCERN...THE 4KM WRF FORECASTS A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND RACE OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS SQUALL LINES OFTEN DO. THIS WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO THE SUBFREEZING AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.

That is an interesting snippet. So if a squall line develops in front of the cold, it diminishes what DFW and East will experience as far as any kind of frozen precip. Wonder if that's what will end up happening.

That's a concern sometimes but in this case, since the precip is moving from SW to NE thunderstorms would ride up into the cold air and do the opposite lol. I understand that problem though. East side has potential to get dry slotted.

[Nederlander]

Local station here in Beaumont calling for 10% Thursday and 20% Friday (frozen precip.)

Is that from KBMT? That was their forecast yesterday as well. I wonder if they've updated or sticking with that. Greg posted on FB this morning sleet and snow possible Friday.

Are you back in Nederland?

Yes I am. I also noticed KFDM shows 30% on Thursday

[Ivanhater]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

[txagwxman]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

This has to do something that is going on with the poles (-AO, -NAO), and not La Nina. Very difficult to predict.

BTW, Goodland KS 10F, NAM thinks it is 25F there.


NAM thinks it is 32F AMA, 27F there.

[northjaxpro]

All of you in Texas, be careful and stay warm this week. Looks to be a brutally cold period for all of Texas, with lots of wintry precip for the Lone Star state. I saw for a time back on this very thread during December 2010 into January 2011 on this thread when the FL peninsula and East Coast were in the Deep Freeze how many Texans were saying it was a boring winter season.

Well, it looks like it is your turn now to get in the Deep Freeze. LOL.. Certainly not boring anymore for you folks Uhh..

[Ivanhater]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

This has to do something that is going on with the poles (-AO, -NAO), and not La Nina. Very difficult to predict.

No doubt about it. The Deep south has already had one of the coldest and snowiest winters this year. Quite surprising after the forecast of a blowtorch for the SE. The -NAO and -AO in a La Nina winter will be studied for years to come.

[DonWrk]

Is the nam under estimating the cold overall or just where the cold is?

[txagwxman]

All of you in Texas, be careful and stay warm this week. Looks to be a brutally cold period for all of Texas, with lots of wintry precip for the Lone Star state. I saw for a time back on this very thread during December 2010 into January 2011 on this thread when the FL peninsula and East Coast were in the Deep Freeze how many Texans were saying it was a boring winter season.

Well, it looks like it is your turn now to get in the Deep Freeze. LOL.. Certainly not boring anymore for you folks Uhh..

Classic Texas blue norther---you just can't get those in N. Florida.

[northjaxpro]

All of you in Texas, be careful and stay warm this week. Looks to be a brutally cold period for all of Texas, with lots of wintry precip for the Lone Star state. I saw for a time back on this very thread during December 2010 into January 2011 on this thread when the FL peninsula and East Coast were in the Deep Freeze how many Texans were saying it was a boring winter season.

Well, it looks like it is your turn now to get in the Deep Freeze. LOL.. Certainly not boring anymore for you folks Uhh..

Classic Texas blue norther---you just can't get those in N. Florida.

LOL.. No you are right about that. But, rest assured, it has been plenty enough cold here in NE FL this winter for sure. I have had a total of 27 days of temperatures going 32 degrees or lower for minimums since December 1, 2010.

That's plenty enough cold for me here for sure.

[txagwxman]

Japanese model...get snow boots ready.

[gboudx]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

This has to do something that is going on with the poles (-AO, -NAO), and not La Nina. Very difficult to predict.

BTW, Goodland KS 10F, NAM thinks it is 25F there.

NAM thinks it is 32F AMA, 27F there.

How fast are these temps lower than what the NAM "thinks"?

I've been trying to follow it using Weatherbug locations in Kansas.

[South Texas Storms]

How reliable is the Japanese model? Does it do fairly well with arctic airmasses and precip.?

[Tejas89]

It looks like the front is draped over KS right now? Hard to tell with chilly air already in place across that area.

[txagwxman]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

This has to do something that is going on with the poles (-AO, -NAO), and not La Nina. Very difficult to predict.

BTW, Goodland KS 10F, NAM thinks it is 25F there.

NAM thinks it is 32F AMA, 27F there.

How fast are these temps lower than what the NAM "thinks"?

I've been trying to follow it using Weatherbug locations in Kansas.

15F off in Goodland KS, 10-15F off in Denver.

[Mattie]

Just this from the LCRA.
…An Extended Period of Very Cold Temperatures Expected throughout the Week…

Big changes in the weather will take place over the next 24 hours as some of the coldest air in many years plunges south into Texas. I urge everyone to take advantage of today’s mild temperatures to make preparations for an extended period of cold weather that will feature hard freezes and bitterly cold temperatures across the entire region.

Forecasters continue to monitor the progress of a strong arctic cold front that has moved out of Canada and is now located across northern Wyoming and central South Dakota. This front is expected to reach The Hill Country and Central Texas regions around or just before daybreak Tuesday morning and the coastal plains region mid to late morning Tuesday. But before the big front moves through, we have some other weather to deal with. Today, a weak cold front has sagged south into Central Texas. Readings behind the front are in the 50s. But this front should move back north as a warm front this afternoon, allowing for a return of mild air. Today’s temperature will generally reach the low 70s under a mostly cloudy sky.

. . .

Bob

Is that for North Texas, where it is currently below 50 degrees

[txagwxman]

Remember all the talk about a boring winter coming up?

This has to do something that is going on with the poles (-AO, -NAO), and not La Nina. Very difficult to predict.

No doubt about it. The Deep south has already had one of the coldest and snowiest winters this year. Quite surprising after the forecast of a blowtorch for the SE. The -NAO and -AO in a La Nina winter will be studied for years to come.

1917 La Nina was as strong...and that was a brutal winter. But this is driven by lack of ice/snow over the N. Pole affecting the AO.