Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[bella_may]

I think the NWS is being conservative. Not that I blame them but if you go and ready their forecasts they don't put in any accumulations yet. I think they are hedging their bets and will up those percentages and accumulations tomorrow if the models don't change.

Well if they're looking at the same thing we are, they'll have no choice. TWC hasn't even mentioned precipitation for Tuesday. But of course they didn't last time either

[BUD]

I guess we might see some snow in North Mrytle beach. I hope not what we got in 1989 around 14 inches!!!!

[Countrygirl911]

When will we know for sure where the snow will be and how much

[BigB0882]

Unfortunately, with the way it works in winter storms, we won't know for sure until the event begins unfolding. Even then we won't be able to accurately predict snowfall amounts. Snow is very fickle and we don't know how much sleet will get in the way. Some areas can get 5 inches and a few miles up the road see only 2.

I will say that if models don't back off by tomorrow then I will feel very confident in an event happening down here. I won't assume we will get anything, could end up missing me or dry slotting me but I will feel confident that SOMEONE will get something. The models need to hang on for another 24 hours. Let's hope!

[Ntxw]

When will we know for sure where the snow will be and how much

There's a good consensus from all models some snow will likely fall in the gulf coast for quite a few runs now. The question remains how much, that is up for debate and really we won't know until we see the cold moving and radar trends towards the event.

BigB laid it out well. Keep your expectations at a constant, may see some snow.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

sorry

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is 1-2 inches in SW LA up to an inch+- from Baton Rouge to the FLA panhandle. 0.5 for New Orleans.

[SeGaBob]

I'd LOVE for that 12Z NAM to verify but I'm not counting on that... the most I've ever seen is 3 inches. Is there some other models that show at least over 3 inches for my area?

[SeGaBob]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO FALL.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-270300-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0001.140128T1700Z-140129T2200Z/
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...METTER...
STATESBORO...SPRINGFIELD...REIDSVILLE...CLAXTON...PEMBROKE...
FORT MCALLISTER...SAVANNAH...TYBEE ISLAND...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...HALFMOON LANDING...TOWNSEND...DARIEN...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER...DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON
153 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON METRO AREAS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF
1/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL
CREATE DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE
INCLUDING FIRST RESPONDERS. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES AND
EVEN STRUCTURES IS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING SITUATIONS.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY BEFORE
ENDING WEDNESDAY.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...10 TO 15 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS WINTER STORM. ONCE THE STORM
BEGINS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. PREPARE TO REMAIN IN A SAFE
SHELTER WITHOUT ELECTRICITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OBTAIN VITAL
SUPPLIES SUCH AS POTABLE WATER...NON-PERISHABLE FOOD...MEDICINE...
BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND AN ALTERNATE
HEAT SOURCE SUCH AS A GENERATOR...NON- ELECTRIC SPACE HEATER OR
WOOD FOR YOUR FIREPLACE.

[Brent]

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HIGHWAY 80...INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR LINE.
THIS INCLUDES CITIES IN AND NEAR LINDEN...PRATTVILLE...MONTGOMERY
...TROY...EUFAULA...PHENIX CITY...TUSKEGEE AND AUBURN. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

$$

[MississippiWx]

Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted by the NWS for the NOLA/Baton Rouge CWA.

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

[bella_may]

They lowered our snow chances Tuesday to 40% instead of 50. Fwiw

[BigB0882]

Wow, I just saw they issued a special statement and in it they said watches may be needed but they went to those very quickly!

[MississippiWx]

BTW, 12z GEFS ensembles continue to show even wetter (snowier, icier) solutions. Most precip amounts yet on the 12z GEFS. Also, even though the 12z CMC operational run was mainly a suppressed (dry) solution, its ensembles are also the wettest yet.

[BigB0882]

I have a feeling someone is going to be in for a huge event, I just hope it is a lot of someones (including myself)

[cycloneye]

12z GFS ensembles run.

[MississippiWx]

^ Compare it to 6z:

[Countrygirl911]

That blue needs to make it up north a little more into sw mississippi between natchez and mccomb so franklin county can get several inches of snow

[BigB0882]

Baton Rouge now in the .5 range in the ensembles. If we can get all snow with that it would be so much fun.

[Janie2006]

That's a huge difference between 6Z and 12Z, big enough to amount to several inches of snow should it verify. Of curse, there's always another possibility.....freezing rain, especially if that air column isn't frozen all the way to the surface, and believe me, a little dab of *that* will do ya.