Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

Note: ESRL and other NOAA sites are slowly coming online so should be able to post more re-analysis of upper air patterns going forward

So are these sites run on people's desktops under their desks and as they come back to work get turned on? I don't understand why they would have powered off servers during a shutdown. If they are patched up and running why turn them off? NOAA sites stayed up.

Just my IT thought......... it's what I do for a living.

It’s just political theater, IMO.

[Haris]

New weeklies have texas on the wet side after feb 10th --ish. Seems fitting.

[Brent]

Euro has a cold front next Wednesday so there's that at least

Bet it trends warmer

[HockeyTx82]

Middle of Winter, I'm up for whatever reason, happen to check in and notice I'm the only signed in memeber.........

Sad state of affairs, oh how I miss the late nights of model watching and real time radar watching of snow and ice moving in with everyone.

[gpsnowman]

Old Man Spring is about to pay us a visit later this week, possible shorts weather. I have a feeling allergy sufferers will be battling this weekend.

[bubba hotep]

Woot Woot... at least the FV3 is good for some lols just about every other run on TT

[Ntxw]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

[Ralph's Weather]

24 at my house this morning. Nice little bust from the 29 degree forecast. I'll take what I can get as we wait for the mid Feb winter weather (fingers crossed).

[orangeblood]

I watched Joe B say that he's heard that yahoo nonsense about winter cancel? He doesn't buy it. He said the warmth will be followed the Cold Hammer of Winter's Wrath upon 57's wall of heatley miserness, deep into MARCH! So winter is not done. Mind you, I added some additional words to all that for fun. #ChampTheChargerWillRide!!!

Ok I have to give my 2 cents on this, the negative with the positive so to speak. I have a few thoughts on ole JB and hate all the hype and getting people worked up over his forecasts when it’s not warranted. His winter outlook is a total bust and about once a week since January, he has been saying the next 45 days are going to be the coldest ever!! Now he’s backed up to the last 2 weeks in Feb/ first 2 weeks in March! About 2-3 weeks ago, he said the coldest 45 day period that we have ever seen in the East was coming!? Now it’s the middle of March. His winter outlook of -4/-5 below avg for the whole winter, can’t verify! He just keeps hyping, even though he’s already wrong. Sorry for the rant just had to put it out there.

Geez! Way too early to judge anyone's forecast...it's not even February. Just curious, what's your forecast going forward ??

[wxman57]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

This demonstrates the issue with models forecasting post-frontal snow. Lower levels remained way too warm for the snow to reach the ground (as snow), as in the image below. Looks like decent snow for Atlanta between 7am and 1pm EDT (12Z-18Z), right? However, the same model's sounding indicates a deep layer of above-freezing air above the surface The precip will start out as snow (aloft), but not much of the snow will survive temps in the 40s in the lower 5000-6000 ft to reach the ground, and it'll quickly melt if it does reach the ground. It's currently 45 degrees in Atlanta (9am EDT).

[dhweather]

Woot Woot... at least the FV3 is good for some lols just about every other run on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019012906/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

Ask the folks in Mississippi and Alabama how they feel about snow forecasts right now.

[Portastorm]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

IMO, there are only a few things worse than being under a Winter Storm Warning and getting cold rain. Or getting nothing.

[Ntxw]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

This demonstrates the issue with models forecasting post-frontal snow. Lower levels remained way too warm for the snow to reach the ground (as snow), as in the image below. Looks like decent snow for Atlanta between 7am and 1pm EDT (12Z-18Z), right? However, the same model's sounding indicates a deep layer of above-freezing air above the surface The precip will start out as snow (aloft), but not much of the snow will survive temps in the 40s in the lower 5000-6000 ft to reach the ground, and it'll quickly melt if it does reach the ground. It's currently 45 degrees in Atlanta (9am EDT).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/ATL.JPG

Yes sir you have taught us well over the years to look at soundings. Map makers set parameters for snow, snow ratio, sleet and freezing rain often has flaws, not the models. That's not to say models get profiles right either, but the pretty colors are mostly set by the site/visual interpretation. Tropicaltidbits has made up for it by providing model soundings!

[Brent]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

was just reading that people over there sound like some of us

They cancelled school for nothing I'm gonna be laughing all day

[Portastorm]

Well to be fair ... the folks in the southeast are probably still gun-shy after what happened a few years back. I'm guessing they deferred on the side of extreme caution this time and got burned. Forecasting snow in the south ain't easy, fellas. I've had NWS personnel who work down here tell me it is some of the toughest forecasting they have to do.

[BigB0882]

:uarrow:

Well to be fair ... the folks in the southeast are probably still gun-shy after what happened a few years back. I'm guessing they deferred on the side of extreme caution this time and got burned. Forecasting snow in the south ain't easy, fellas. I've had NWS personnel who work down here tell me it is some of the toughest forecasting they have to do.

Last year I went to bed with one of our local meteorologists insisting there would be no snow and I woke up to heavy snow and ended up with 3 inches in Baton Rouge, but some areas had more than that. Now, the models all showed the snow so I don't know why he was so insistent on saying it wasn't going to happen but it goes to show how tricky it is to predict, even with the models.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

Well to be fair ... the folks in the southeast are probably still gun-shy after what happened a few years back. I'm guessing they deferred on the side of extreme caution this time and got burned. Forecasting snow in the south ain't easy, fellas. I've had NWS personnel who work down here tell me it is some of the toughest forecasting they have to do.

Agreed! After what happened a few years ago, you have to always always err on the side of caution...if a bust happens and school is canceled prematurely, its negated by built-in snow days to their schedules. But having thousands and thousands of children stranded at school is much much worse! Not really something to laugh at IMO

[Haris]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

IMO, there are only a few things worse than being under a Winter Storm Warning and getting cold rain. Or getting nothing.

Woohoo!

[Haris]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

This demonstrates the issue with models forecasting post-frontal snow. Lower levels remained way too warm for the snow to reach the ground (as snow), as in the image below. Looks like decent snow for Atlanta between 7am and 1pm EDT (12Z-18Z), right? However, the same model's sounding indicates a deep layer of above-freezing air above the surface The precip will start out as snow (aloft), but not much of the snow will survive temps in the 40s in the lower 5000-6000 ft to reach the ground, and it'll quickly melt if it does reach the ground. It's currently 45 degrees in Atlanta (9am EDT).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019012906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_2.png

http://wxman57.com/images/ATL.JPG

You sir are completely right. Thank you so much for your expertise. I didn’t know that exactly prior to today. Makes a lot of sense though.

[bubba hotep]

New weeklies have texas on the wet side after feb 10th --ish. Seems fitting.

Agree. Overall, Weeklies continue to look good for Texas after the warm up. Depicted 500mb pattern should keep Texas cold and wet but will it be cold enough when we need it.