Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS....SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO OR MORE INCHES. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR MORE. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY ALONG A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE...AND MAY UNDERCUT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS
MID MORNING TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 PM TUESDAY AND 5 AM
WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL IN THE
TO LOWER 30S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 30S...WITH VALUES RISING ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER 2 PM.

[MississippiWx]

Just recently issued by the WPC. These are their probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snowfall in a 24 hour period:

[Brent]

ALZ028-029-033-035>050-270445-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.140128T1500Z-140129T1200Z/
CLAY-RANDOLPH-PERRY-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-
DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-
RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...MARION...CLANTON...
ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...VALLEY...LANETT...DEMOPOLIS...
LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...
WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...
AUBURN...OPELIKA...TROY...EUFAULA
232 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...THE GREATEST SNOW AND SLEET POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN
NOON TUESDAY AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* LOCATION...AT THIS TIME...THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS FROM ROUGHLY US-80 AND
INTERSTATE 85 SOUTHWARD.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF A
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.

[Countrygirl911]

SW mississippi under winter storm watch could see 2-3 inches of snow and ice hope its just snow we do not want ice

[BigB0882]

I hope those WPC percentages are low. I'd like more than a 30% chance.

[MississippiWx]

Finally, my WFO got in on the action:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
215 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...

MSZ061>066-072>074-270415-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0001.140128T1500Z-140129T0600Z/
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUDE...ROXIE...MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...
MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...BASSFIELD...COLLINS...
MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...
PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
215 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING: LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING

* IMPACTS: SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO ICY ROADS
AND BRIDGES...AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z NAM.

60 hours.



84 hours.

[BigB0882]

That nam is gorgeous. I just hope it is snow!

[seahawkjd]

On that map what do the numbers equate to?

[Ntxw]

On that map what do the numbers equate to?

It is difficult to say because what the NAM consistently shows is sleet ending as snow so we don't know because sleet reflects highly on snow maps. Areas further east in GA/SC is easier because for them it's mostly snow.

[Alacane2]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM
HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS
MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE ALABAMA...WHERE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-270545-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1500Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...BRENT...
WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...
MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...
WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...
MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
340 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES. POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES AND
BROKEN TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[seahawkjd]

Thanks. I'm in Eastern NC but this forum is close enough that I can get insight from the models lol. Thanks for the answer.

[SeGaBob]

Our local NWS Office is currently predicting 2-3 inches of snow and maybe more than a 1/4 inch of ice here... is there a good chance for them to up the amounts some?

[Ntxw]

Thanks. I'm in Eastern NC but this forum is close enough that I can get insight from the models lol. Thanks for the answer.

No worries, you should see some good snow from this, still room for NW trend that way especially if a strong low forms off the coast. Coastal North Carolina just slightly to your east gets a dumping.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS.

60 hours.



72 hours.

[BigB0882]

18z GFS seems a little less fun, at least for my area but I think its ensembles are the ones that have always been wetter.

[cycloneye]

Graphic from Levi Cowan of the 18z GFS that is not yet on his site.

[BigB0882]

Well the 18z GFS is definitely not nice. But how does it show no precip on one map and at least some on the other? I hope that is not the beginning of a last minute trend. I will be so upset to be this close to a big event and just miss out. That would be so sickening.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
17m
Cold caused blackouts possible, historic snow/ice event to the gulf coast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't panic B thats just the end of it for us at that time. On the 18z it gets cranked up at 45hr and blows up over us at 48 hr. Actually looks pretty darn good for us. Lots of snow and ice, about 20hrs or so for us.