Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

so wxman57 i guess your thinking that is very less likely at this point or do you still see the chance being there?

[wxman57]

so wxman57 i guess your thinking that is very less likely at this point or do you still see the chance being there?

Both - less likely a significant ice event but there is still a chance of some issues on roads up along the Red River. I never really thought freezing/frozen precip would be a problem in Dallas, and it was only a few model runs that suggested heavier precip in cold air at Wichita Falls.

[srainhoutx]

Pardon me for picking your brain a bit wxman57. Some things changed fairly dramatically today via guidance. A couple of things I noticed is the PV is stronger that modeled. Also the NAM began some confusion and now things have shifted to a warmer regime. I know this event is still very dynamic, but do you see any changes ahead should the 00Z run align to a sensible solution, or is this one of those wait a see scenarios?

[wxman57]

Pardon me for picking your brain a bit wxman57. Some things changed fairly dramatically today via guidance. A couple of things I noticed is the PV is stronger that modeled. Also the NAM began some confusion and now things have shifted to a warmer regime. I know this event is still very dynamic, but do you see any changes ahead should the 00Z run align to a sensible solution, or is this one of those wait a see scenarios?

Predicting just how far south cold air will sag ahead of an approaching upper trof is always difficult. We know the models have a lot of problems with VERY cold and shallow Arctic air, so we compensate (sometimes quite a bit). But this is not one of those situations. I think that the models are just getting a better grasp on where the frontal boundary will be tomorrow/tomorrow night as the event gets closer. Don't look for many changes at 00Z.

[txagwxman]

DFW appears to be out of the woods. No ice for them. ECMWF doing the same as is the latest GFS.

Latest NAM is keeping DFW > 32F until Friday night. Ice should be NW of FTW on Thu.

[wall_cloud]

DFW appears to be out of the woods. No ice for them.

Latest NAM is keeping DFW > 32F until Friday night.

but it is also showing a dewpoint depression of 5F or more. When precip occurs, wet bulbing can have a significant impact on temps. Not saying it will bring winter wx to your area, but you have to take the output with a grain of salt.

[katheria]

DFW appears to be out of the woods. No ice for them. ECMWF doing the same as is the latest GFS.

Latest NAM is keeping DFW > 32F until Friday night. Ice should be NW of FTW on Thu.

gives up and moves to OK soon...lol

hopefully we will have some more chances in feb

[wxman57]

DFW appears to be out of the woods. No ice for them.

Latest NAM is keeping DFW > 32F until Friday night.

but it is also showing a dewpoint depression of 5F or more. When precip occurs, wet bulbing can have a significant impact on temps. Not saying it will bring winter wx to your area, but you have to take the output with a grain of salt.

That's true, but the moisture may move out very quickly after sunrise Friday, leaving nothing but a thin layer of low clouds by noon. Nothing to produce precip and lower the temps.

[orangeblood]

With this being a very dynamic system, it will be very hard for the models to pick up on all the shortwaves rounding the base of this trough. There are a couple of shortwaves that some of the models are picking up on that will be moving through central and north texas friday morning after the cold air has established itself (look at the NAM and NMM models). Friday morning into early afternoon appears to be the best window for winter precip in the North Texas area. I believe everyone should still monitor this situation closely.

[txagwxman]

DFW appears to be out of the woods. No ice for them.

Latest NAM is keeping DFW > 32F until Friday night.

but it is also showing a dewpoint depression of 5F or more. When precip occurs, wet bulbing can have a significant impact on temps. Not saying it will bring winter wx to your area, but you have to take the output with a grain of salt.

I am talking ice not a snow flurry (which may/may not happen fri evening).

[wall_cloud]

actually, a dry slot would promote freezing drizzle over snow due to the lack of dendrites in the -12 to -18C layer. Ice would be more likely in that case.

[Ntxw]

I'm expecting rain and that's that! unless someone (hope so!) can convince me otherwise!

[msstateguy83]

we should keep a eye on temps up into northern ok this eve on the mesonet to see how quickly the
cold air moves into oklahoma i still say it holds the key to alot of this.... time will tell

[srainhoutx]

:wink: we should keep a eye on temps up into northern ok this eve on the mesonet to see how quickly the
cold air moves into oklahoma i still say it holds the key to alot of this.... time will tell

Look further N.

[Peanut432]

The temp right now in Dodge City is 35F with a north wind at 16 fyi. Thats not that far away........

[wall_cloud]

my biggest concerns right now are starting to become more apparent. latest model guidance for the TX Panhandle show sustained NE winds at 25 kts. This will result in blizzard conditions for many areas. Coupled with ice accumulations, we could see crippling results. Luckily, the strongest winds may not phase up with the heaviest snow.

[msstateguy83]

the upper level storm sys needs to be watched also closely this eve to see what it does b/c any further e-ward track
and no turn to the north with be huge. as of last check i still think it is a bit further south then previous forecast

[srainhoutx]

my biggest concerns right now are starting to become more apparent. latest model guidance for the TX Panhandle show sustained NE winds at 25 kts. This will result in blizzard conditions for many areas. Coupled with ice accumulations, we could see crippling results.

I agree. Just for the record look a bit further N. Pattern changes can be very tricky...

[msstateguy83]

some may disagree with me but also i think alot of the numbers on the south end say into south central, sw ok into nw tx could be quite conservative depending on how quickly the cold air rushes down.

[Ntxw]

With this storm aside, JB this morning mentioned that the EC family showed warming trends next week for early Feb which is contrary to what I had believed with the stepping down process. Though the GFS lately seem to agree on the warmth. Any thoughts?