Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Tejas89]

It seems like Atlanta busts more than DFW these days. Alas, it's hard to bust when winter precip is rarely in the forecast!

In the meantime, minus 18 with snow and a howling wind in Chicago tonight.

[wxman57]

In this case, the models didn't "bust". They performed just as they were designed/programmed to perform. It's the meteorologists who interpreted the models that busted.

HRRR sounding for Atlanta suggests a noon local time temp of 38 deg with the freezing level only about 1000 ft above the ground. Rain could change to snow as the precip comes to an end early this afternoon. Current conditions in Atlanta are light rain and 43F. Temps forecast to remain in the mid to upper 30s today, so any snow that does fall won't be around long.

[Cerlin]

In this case, the models didn't "bust". They performed just as they were designed/programmed to perform. It's the meteorologists who interpreted the models that busted.

HRRR sounding for Atlanta suggests a noon local time temp of 38 deg with the freezing level only about 1000 ft above the ground. Rain could change to snow as the precip comes to an end early this afternoon. Current conditions in Atlanta are light rain and 43F. Temps forecast to remain in the mid to upper 30s today, so any snow that does fall won't be around long.

http://wxman57.com/images/HRRR.JPG

Just goes to show you can’t only look at precipitation maps in these close situations and there are so many important factors that could be easily overlooked.

[Brent]

It seems like Atlanta busts more than DFW these days. Alas, it's hard to bust when winter precip is rarely in the forecast!

In the meantime, minus 18 with snow and a howling wind in Chicago tonight.

Atlanta definitely has its busts, this isn't even the first one since I moved away from the nearby area 5 years ago

I didn't mean to laugh about the schools closing and stuff(I saw what happened there in 2014) but its just... they had so much snow last year while we didn't so I definitely was not sad to see a bust.

[orangeblood]

In this case, the models didn't "bust". They performed just as they were designed/programmed to perform. It's the meteorologists who interpreted the models that busted.

HRRR sounding for Atlanta suggests a noon local time temp of 38 deg with the freezing level only about 1000 ft above the ground. Rain could change to snow as the precip comes to an end early this afternoon. Current conditions in Atlanta are light rain and 43F. Temps forecast to remain in the mid to upper 30s today, so any snow that does fall won't be around long.

http://wxman57.com/images/HRRR.JPG

Just goes to show you can’t only look at precipitation maps in these close situations and there are so many important factors that could be easily overlooked.

And the flip side of this equation is if you rely too much on models, you can become complacent as a meteorologist (we've seen it numerous times around here at the FTW NWS office). Interpreting future forecast soundings, as a base for a forecast, is a dangerous game to play as well. Weather forecasting is one of the more humbling professions one can have IMO!!

[Agua]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

was just reading that people over there sound like some of us

They cancelled school for nothing I'm gonna be laughing all day

That's rather crappy of you, after I specifically asked if you'd gotten snow, hoping you'd gotten to see some. You know, that morning you slept through the snow you'd been whining about for years?

[Yukon Cornelius]

It seems like Atlanta busts more than DFW these days. Alas, it's hard to bust when winter precip is rarely in the forecast!

In the meantime, minus 18 with snow and a howling wind in Chicago tonight.

Same with my wife’s dads house in WI. I think they are calling for -23 with a windchill of -40 to -50. And to think they all were calling for winter cancel since December.

[orangeblood]

It seems like Atlanta busts more than DFW these days. Alas, it's hard to bust when winter precip is rarely in the forecast!

In the meantime, minus 18 with snow and a howling wind in Chicago tonight.

Same with my wife’s dads house in WI. I think they are calling for -23 with a windchill of -40 to -50. And tho think they all were calling for winter cancel since December.

Truly insane cold developing in that part of the country, unfortunately the cold bundled (big reason why it become so severe) and never spread out to affect our weather too drastically!!

[MississippiWx]

Woot Woot... at least the FV3 is good for some lols just about every other run on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019012906/fv3p_asnow_eus_41.png

Ask the folks in Mississippi and Alabama how they feel about snow forecasts right now.

Not too thrilled! But I always had a gut feeling this would be a bust because we never do well with cold air chasing precip situations. Still snowed hard and big here for about 10 minutes with a mix for about an hour.

We do better with systems that come out of Texas with cold air source coming from Western Canada. We won’t complain, however. We had a 7 inch snow last year followed by a 2 inch snow a month later! This is also the second snow this year, just no accumulation. We are spoiled!
I like the pattern upcoming for you guys. Hoping it transpires.

[Brent]

I know this will make Brent and Haris feel better that the snow "squall" in the southeast has largely been a bust. Hasn't been cold enough and areas that were in winter storm warnings have been canceled. We can relate .

was just reading that people over there sound like some of us

They cancelled school for nothing I'm gonna be laughing all day

That's rather crappy of you, after I specifically asked if you'd gotten snow, hoping you'd gotten to see some. You know, that morning you slept through the snow you'd been whining about for years?

Lol but i was awake for the 5 minutes of flakes last Tuesday Night

It was fun to watch but more of a tease than anything

In other news the GFS has Dallas hitting 80 on Monday

[Quixotic]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It’s still my belief that for us to get COLD and stormy in the 3-4 years after a Super Nino, we need a weak Nina and -SOI.

But what do I know... I don’t get paid for my opinions on macro weather patterns.

[wxman57]

In this case, the models didn't "bust". They performed just as they were designed/programmed to perform. It's the meteorologists who interpreted the models that busted.

HRRR sounding for Atlanta suggests a noon local time temp of 38 deg with the freezing level only about 1000 ft above the ground. Rain could change to snow as the precip comes to an end early this afternoon. Current conditions in Atlanta are light rain and 43F. Temps forecast to remain in the mid to upper 30s today, so any snow that does fall won't be around long.

http://wxman57.com/images/HRRR.JPG

Just goes to show you can’t only look at precipitation maps in these close situations and there are so many important factors that could be easily overlooked.

And the flip side of this equation is if you rely too much on models, you can become complacent as a meteorologist (we've seen it numerous times around here at the FTW NWS office). Interpreting future forecast soundings, as a base for a forecast, is a dangerous game to play as well. Weather forecasting is one of the more humbling professions one can have IMO!!

My point was to be careful believing model forecasts of snow. It's important to know how the models are programmed to display precip type, as well as the timing differences on the surface precip map. Comparing a forecast sounding with a weather map can provide clues, though both may turn out to be incorrect. The models are a great tool. We all rely on them quite a bit for guidance. They're an excellent basis for a forecast, as long as you know their limitations and take those limitations in account when making a forecast.

Imagine if there were no computer models at all. How would you forecast the weather? Back in the 1970s, we were taught to make forecasts using very little data - "single station analysis". Heck, we didn't have much in the way of model data back then, anyway. We would plot our own surface and upper air maps and lay one on top of the other using light tables to see a 3-D version of the atmosphere.

[TheProfessor]

I'm doomed tomorrow. Doomed I tell ya. The windchill is only -1 today and I'm already shivering. It's going to be -40 tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

[orangeblood]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

Really starting to like what I'm seeing even before then...Feb 8-10 time frame - models are getting "Noisy" again for that time period. Lots of HP and cold air draped across the Conus 2nd week in Feb, all we need is a S/W to kick out in the STJ

[Quixotic]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

We’ll see. I’ve seen this movie before. There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. If I’m wrong, bump troll me and I will gladly eat crow.

[Portastorm]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

We’ll see. I’ve seen this movie before. There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. If I’m wrong, bump troll me and I will gladly eat crow.

Nah, no bump trolling here ... we're all family. If you're wrong, you can celebrate with the rest of us! And if I am wrong and the others, you can remind us with an "I told you so."

[Quixotic]

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

We’ll see. I’ve seen this movie before. There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. If I’m wrong, bump troll me and I will gladly eat crow.

Nah, no bump trolling here ... we're all family. If you're wrong, you can celebrate with the rest of us! And if I am wrong and the others, you can remind us with an "I told you so."

Nah. I won’t say “I told you so”. I’ll be bummed as will you. I’d be salting my own wounds.

[South Texas Storms]

I’m throwing in the towel. That flizzard gave me hope the pattern might be in its long awaited shift. No we are looking at end of February and March? Depressing.

"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that.

Really starting to like what I'm seeing even before then...Feb 8-10 time frame - models are getting "Noisy" again for that time period. Lots of HP and cold air draped across the Conus 2nd week in Feb, all we need is a S/W to kick out in the STJ

Yep 12z Euro Ensemble and control runs indicating a winter storm threat across TX late next week into next weekend. The extended looks cold and unsettled as well.