Snow_Wizzard... you have a great knowledge of local weather. No doubt about it.
However... I think you are right with your forecast 50% of the time. That is the 50% of the time its below normal.
You have to admit... always forecasting cold is not a way to become a respected forecaster!! You always assume it will get cold and try to find ways to prove it. That is not going to make you very accurate.
For me to have confidence in your forecasts I would need to see you aggressively forecast cold and warm (in all seasons). It seems your forecast always serves your agenda of COLD. Even if you did forecast warmth it would in the hope that extreme heat means extreme cold is coming. I am surprised you cannot see this unbelievable bias you have!!
I go with the flow. Either way... I call it like I see it. I have called for very cold and very warm. It builds credibility. Because thats the way Mother Nature works.
Again... your knowledge is great. You could use that knowledge more effectively by taking out your obsession with cold. Its your Achilles Heel dude.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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andycottle
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snow_wizzard
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- Location: Covington, WA
TT...I think you should just wait until you have seen my forecasts over the course of an entire year, before you make such rash judgements. You might be surprised by what you see. I will predict warmth, when I am really sure of it. For now, I am taking persistence into account. Any time you get locked into a rut like this, the models often bring us out of it too quickly. The ECMWF does have a reputation of overstating things at times. I think it is way too warm for the end of this week...Pure and simple.
I have written down, what I consider to be some outlandish predictions by you, and we will see how they play out. Saying that Olympia will average considerably above normal seems a bit extreme to me. Keep in mind, when it's clear they will have very cold nights. That is why their April normal is so low. They get a lot of fake cold when it's clear at night. Sea - Tac is more of a true measure becuase they almost always have a mixed atmosphere. By the way...I consider considerably above normal at least 2 above normal. Do you really want to stand by that?
I have written down, what I consider to be some outlandish predictions by you, and we will see how they play out. Saying that Olympia will average considerably above normal seems a bit extreme to me. Keep in mind, when it's clear they will have very cold nights. That is why their April normal is so low. They get a lot of fake cold when it's clear at night. Sea - Tac is more of a true measure becuase they almost always have a mixed atmosphere. By the way...I consider considerably above normal at least 2 above normal. Do you really want to stand by that?
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
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TT-SEA
Olympia is currently just .5 of a degree below normal for the month.
Considering the warmth coming... I would say they will end up between 1.5 and 1.8 degrees above normal.
Sea-Tac will end up 1 degree below normal.
At this point... if next winter is really cold I am going to have a tough time not thinking it was dumb luck on your part. I assume every single summer you say that the coming winter is going to be really cold. You then find some statistic to support your forecast.
The funny thing is... this COULD be the winter. It will happen at some point. This year... next year... 10 years from now. When you always assume its going to be a bitterly cold winter... eventually you WILL be right. And then for the next 10 years you will feel vindicated and always remember that you did get it right that one time.
In reality... that was not forecasting at all. That was wishing and hoping. Not forecasting.
Considering the warmth coming... I would say they will end up between 1.5 and 1.8 degrees above normal.
Sea-Tac will end up 1 degree below normal.
At this point... if next winter is really cold I am going to have a tough time not thinking it was dumb luck on your part. I assume every single summer you say that the coming winter is going to be really cold. You then find some statistic to support your forecast.
The funny thing is... this COULD be the winter. It will happen at some point. This year... next year... 10 years from now. When you always assume its going to be a bitterly cold winter... eventually you WILL be right. And then for the next 10 years you will feel vindicated and always remember that you did get it right that one time.
In reality... that was not forecasting at all. That was wishing and hoping. Not forecasting.
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snow_wizzard
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- Location: Covington, WA
Wow TT...That is a lot of rain you've had! You have got to love those orographics!
In Covington we've had 3.67 this month and 13.02 for the year.
I certainly agree that Wednesday will be nice and rather warm. I would say 62 - 67 is pretty likely. See! I do predict warm weather.
I am quick to add though...the low temps in many areas will be quite chilly on that day and will probably offset the above normal highs. That means three more below normal days coming up Sun - Tue and then a near normal on Wednesday. Times a wastin to bring these averages up.
In Covington we've had 3.67 this month and 13.02 for the year.
I certainly agree that Wednesday will be nice and rather warm. I would say 62 - 67 is pretty likely. See! I do predict warm weather.
I am quick to add though...the low temps in many areas will be quite chilly on that day and will probably offset the above normal highs. That means three more below normal days coming up Sun - Tue and then a near normal on Wednesday. Times a wastin to bring these averages up.
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snow_wizzard
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TT...The funny thing is, you have only seen me predict one winter. You have no idea about any of the others. Need I remind you that even the national guys were saying we would get plastered in Jan. If I was wrong about that, I was in good company. I do predict warm winters, and it really pisses me off when I have to. My wife can attest to the fact that I do get a bit upset when I know there is no chance of it getting cold and I do indeed predict it will be warm. I then of course go on my rant about how it will never get cold again and all of that.
In short...I am absolutely stoked about this year. Things I have been waiting to see are coming to pass, and I feel really good about it. I cannot fool myself as the above paragraph clearly states.
By the way...I added up Olympia and came up with 1.6 degrees below normal, I will have to do it again. They had some hugely below normal days in the past week.
In short...I am absolutely stoked about this year. Things I have been waiting to see are coming to pass, and I feel really good about it. I cannot fool myself as the above paragraph clearly states.
By the way...I added up Olympia and came up with 1.6 degrees below normal, I will have to do it again. They had some hugely below normal days in the past week.
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TT-SEA
Why are you stoked about this year??
January was above normal.
February was slightly below normal.
March was way above normal.
April will be slightly below normal.
Overall still above normal for 2005.
We could be WAY below normal until October and then likely be above normal all next winter!!
I guess I have a hard time believing you ever forecast a warm winter in the middle of summer. It would probably kill you.
January was above normal.
February was slightly below normal.
March was way above normal.
April will be slightly below normal.
Overall still above normal for 2005.
We could be WAY below normal until October and then likely be above normal all next winter!!
I guess I have a hard time believing you ever forecast a warm winter in the middle of summer. It would probably kill you.
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TT-SEA
Here is something interesting... this is a map of temperature departure from long-term average for the last 10 years. This includes all months of the year.
Global warming??
Even more shocking... here is the temperature departure from normal for the last 10 winter seasons. Its not just the Pacific Northwest thats having warm winters!!!
Incredible.
Global warming??
Even more shocking... here is the temperature departure from normal for the last 10 winter seasons. Its not just the Pacific Northwest thats having warm winters!!!
Incredible.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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TT-SEA
Here is the last 10 winter seasons combined... compared to the 1971-2000 average.
If global warming was not happening I would expect one part of the country to be cold and another warm. Or all places close to normal when looking at 10 seasons. But the whole country is warmer!!!!
If global warming was not happening I would expect one part of the country to be cold and another warm. Or all places close to normal when looking at 10 seasons. But the whole country is warmer!!!!
Last edited by TT-SEA on Sun Apr 17, 2005 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
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- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Well folks...if the GFS 00z is correct, this ridge of high pressure for early next next could possibly stick around into early next month along seasonably, and pleasently mild daytime temps. Only one exception is maybe a few sprinkles on the 26th/27th. Other than that...pretty nice weather coming our way....at least in the short term anyway. -- Andy
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TT-SEA
My latest discovery is amazing.
There is no place in the country that has had colder than normal winters over the last 10 years.
It just screams global warming.
I was looking at other decades and some places were cooler... some warmer depending on the cycle. Like the period 1945-1975 saw much cooler in the west and much warmer in the east. That would make sense.
But in the last decade the whole country is having warmer winters. It looks like our normal patterns are being gradually replaced by a trend for warmer winters everywhere.
For a person who dearly loves bitterly cold winters... I would find this extremely depressing.
There is no place in the country that has had colder than normal winters over the last 10 years.
It just screams global warming.
I was looking at other decades and some places were cooler... some warmer depending on the cycle. Like the period 1945-1975 saw much cooler in the west and much warmer in the east. That would make sense.
But in the last decade the whole country is having warmer winters. It looks like our normal patterns are being gradually replaced by a trend for warmer winters everywhere.
For a person who dearly loves bitterly cold winters... I would find this extremely depressing.
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TT-SEA
You wonder why we cannot seem to get really cold or snowy in the past few years????
Western Washington is generally dominated by maritime influences. We have always been on the edge when it comes to winter weather. Sometimes we would get a very snowy winter... most times we did not.
For other places that have true "winter"... some warming can mean MORE snow (until the warming influences become too much). For us... a general warming of the Earth has made it even more difficult to get a true cold, snowy winter.
As global warming continues... our trend towards warmer winters will make lowland snow even less frequent.
The old rules no longer apply!!
Even with the old rules... I would say a cold, snowy winter in 2005-06 is very unlikely. With global warming the scale tilts even more towards a warmer than "normal" winter. Normal will gradually be re-defined over the next 30 years.
Western Washington may never again see those wild winters of the past. At least not while we are all alive!!
Western Washington is generally dominated by maritime influences. We have always been on the edge when it comes to winter weather. Sometimes we would get a very snowy winter... most times we did not.
For other places that have true "winter"... some warming can mean MORE snow (until the warming influences become too much). For us... a general warming of the Earth has made it even more difficult to get a true cold, snowy winter.
As global warming continues... our trend towards warmer winters will make lowland snow even less frequent.
The old rules no longer apply!!
Even with the old rules... I would say a cold, snowy winter in 2005-06 is very unlikely. With global warming the scale tilts even more towards a warmer than "normal" winter. Normal will gradually be re-defined over the next 30 years.
Western Washington may never again see those wild winters of the past. At least not while we are all alive!!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
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- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...That is why I place so much hope in a regime shift. I am not surprised by those maps. All of this stuff is cyclical. Even if global warming is happening (for whatever reason) there is little question that the entire US is due for a colder climate phase to take hold. It is just like the late 1930s and most of the 40s were quite warm and then it turned much colder in the late 40s and 50s. We will see a colder phase again. I think the AO, PNA, and NAO all going negative the last few years is the beginning of the process. The huge question is...Will we see it go back to a period as cold as the 50s next time or will it be less of a cold period. If it is less cold than the 1946 - 1975 period, I will concede we are in trouble.
As for being stoked. There are things that are just fine details that I am very intrigued by. For one...beginning last year we saw upper level flow patterns that looked like they should bring fantastically cold weather but they did not. This year we are starting to realize below normal temps from the cold upper patterns.
As for being stoked. There are things that are just fine details that I am very intrigued by. For one...beginning last year we saw upper level flow patterns that looked like they should bring fantastically cold weather but they did not. This year we are starting to realize below normal temps from the cold upper patterns.
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snow_wizzard
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- Location: Covington, WA
The new 0z run is not favorable for a long period of well above normal temps. It shows a moderate onshore push for days 5 and 6, and very a strong push, that should bring below normal temps for days 9 and 10. There will be little time for really warm air to get a foot hold. The GFS has been very consistent in showing the strong push around the 25th or 26th.
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snow_wizzard
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TT...You must realize that the temps are not going to go straight up in an unchecked manner even if global warming is reality. Man produced greenhouse gasses have been with us since the 19th century and we have seen great oscillation in temps during that time. There will be some kind of a pullback soon.
Keep in mind...before the west was settled we had huge forest fires that burned for months and nobdoy put them out. That produced more greenhouse gasses that all of our cars and industries combined. I am not convinced yet.
Keep in mind...before the west was settled we had huge forest fires that burned for months and nobdoy put them out. That produced more greenhouse gasses that all of our cars and industries combined. I am not convinced yet.
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TT-SEA
Snow_Wizzard...
In the last 110 years there has never been a period like the last decade in terms of warmer winters. None.
Here is the winter temperatures for the period you mentioned... the late 1930's through most of the 1940's. Specifically 1937-1947.
Notice the southwest and the northeast were slightly cooler... the middle of the country was slightly warmer. Nowhere NEAR the dramatic shift in the last 10 years.
If you love cold, snowy winters in Western Washington... we ARE in trouble!!
In the last 110 years there has never been a period like the last decade in terms of warmer winters. None.
Here is the winter temperatures for the period you mentioned... the late 1930's through most of the 1940's. Specifically 1937-1947.
Notice the southwest and the northeast were slightly cooler... the middle of the country was slightly warmer. Nowhere NEAR the dramatic shift in the last 10 years.
If you love cold, snowy winters in Western Washington... we ARE in trouble!!
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snow_wizzard
- Category 4
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- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
All I am saying, is let's see what the next the next colder phase brings. There is no doubt it will cycle colder again. Even if it's a three steps forward, two steps back type of thing. We are due for the two steps back.
Compare this...
To this...
It got colder, even though global warming may have been happening then too!
Compare this...
To this...
It got colder, even though global warming may have been happening then too!
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:47 am, edited 2 times in total.
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