Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Phew, I was worried. Until PTracker said BTR looks good for about 6 inches on that run. Then I fainted.

[EmeraldCoast93]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2014

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING]...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL
BE FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS A SERIES OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREE ACROSS
THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT A WINTER STORM WARNING
WILL BE UPCOMING. POTENTIALLY WE COULD SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF ICE
COATING THE ROADS...BRIDGES...POWER LINES AND TREES. THIS MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA TUESDAY
EVENING...AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN ADDITION
TO THE ICE...COVERING THE ICE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE
ALABAMA...WHERE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LIFE THREATENING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED NOT TO TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[Janie2006]

As Elvis used to sing: "T-R-O-U-B-L-E"

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Ensembles with more precipitation than the operational:

72 hours.



96 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone! Wow, as I stated last night, this has the the feeling of the middle of hurricane season monitoring this potential extreme Deep South winter storm. Lots of Storm2Kers on this thread tonight and rightfully so!

I am anxiously awaiting the overnight runs later to see if they show any deviations. I don't foresee any major changes at this point now that we are within 48 hours to the start of this event. However, with this type of event unfolding, I have learned over the years to never discount any factors in weather.

Also, i will say with the cold arctic air mass coming in the region, do not underestimate the rate of dynamical cooling when the moisture falls over that cold, dry dome of air. I think the surface temperatures are going to significantly colder than what models are currently showing in many spots in the Tuesday-Wednesday period.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

18z GFS Ensembles with more precipitation than the operational:

72 hours.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/9jg7yb.jpg

96 hours.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/206hr39.jpg

Wow, are those totals pushing 1.5in in se la cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Ensembles with more precipitation than the operational:

72 hours.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/9jg7yb.jpg

96 hours.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/206hr39.jpg

Wow, are those totals pushing 1.5in in se la cycloneye?

Yep and I didn't mention is more NW than operational.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is looking like it can go from unreal and exciting to bad in a hurry if things continue like this. Nobody around is is equipped to deal with this kind of widespread potential around here. Best way I can explain it is a cat 1 coming up into the gulf then within a days time exploding to cat 4 . At first everyone is pumped and excited til suddenly the real danger is realized.

[timmeister]

This radar future cast shows heavy snow in Hattiesburg, MS, South of McComb, MS, Opelousas and Lafayette, LA Tuesday morning at 10 AM.

[Ntxw]

This is looking like it can go from unreal and exciting to bad in a hurry if things continue like this. Nobody around is is equipped to deal with this kind of widespread potential around here. Best way I can explain it is a cat 1 coming up into the gulf then within a days time exploding to cat 4 . At first everyone is pumped and excited til suddenly the real danger is realized.

I made a post about this in the TX thread for Houston. In areas that get mostly snow I think they will be mostly fine, but areas that get sleet and freezing rain I can tell you from experience it is the absolute worse for the roads. Nobody knows how to drive in ICE, doesn't matter where you are from. For places in SE LA and SW LA the majority of the precip onslought may actually be sleet. Once you get below 30 into the 20s the pavements become an ice rink, keep that in mind.

[Janie2006]

There are at least a few very real hazards here.

(1) I'm finding it difficult to determine how much snow and ice accumulation there will be based on the model output if only because I'm not at all certain about the conversion time, the rate of dynamic cooling, etcetera.

(2) A few inches of snow in the Deep South is always a delight, simply because it's at least a decadal event at best. However......in this situation *nobody* here has the experience or the equipment to deal with this should the worst case scenario happen. All it would take would be about 0.25" of ice, with a couple of inches of snow on top to make this a *really* bad scenario. Forget travel, it would be a dangerous undertaking at best.

(3) Depending on the amount of freezing rain that falls, there could be quite a few downed power lines and tree limbs.....if not the trees themselves.

This is going from fun to rather worrisome in a hurry.


*watches model carefully*

[Stormnut]

Watching carefully as well!

PS: Janie, will you marry me?

[BigB0882]

That future cast is a little odd. There is no way to know which exact areas will get bullseyed. I also don't see areas just to south being completely dry. They should receive MORE precip than those to the north, it just may not be snow.

[cycloneye]

I sense by looking this from outside the U.S that the folks who live in the deep south are seeing this as if a hurricane were to make landfall in terms of following the models and preparations for wintry weather.

[Janie2006]

I've always thought "Futurecasts" were just dressed-up versions of the NAM for Joe Six-Pack watching the weather at home.

.....and a girl needs at least a martini or two before making a decision about marriage!

[northjaxpro]

I sense by looking this from outside the U.S that the folks that live in the deep south are seeing this as if a hurricane were to make landfall in terms of following the models and preparations for wintry weather.

Yeah cycloneye I think it is a very good thing that people are taking this seriously. I mean, you just don't have these unusual winter events like this one come around these parts often that's for sure. I am also very concerned about the freezing rain/sleet some WFOs like Mobile are forecasting as much as 3/4 inch of ice accumulations in their forecast area. That would be a dangerous issue should that verify and certainly thick enough ice accumulation to knock tree branches down and cause power lines to fall as well. Of course, the dangers of traveling as well.

[hurricanedude]

NWS T-hasse Fl looks at it as a tropical cyclone impact

Places north of a line from Panama City to Tifton
stand the best chance of accumulating snow/sleet, though a dusting
is still possible farther south and east. The disconcerting part of
the forecast is the potential for significant ice accumulations.
Much of our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with
isolated higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little
infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen
precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropical
cyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would
undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads.
Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather
clothing risk hypothermia.

[Ivanhater]

Looking like a bad ice storm followed up with possible historic snow for Pensacola coming up....this is unreal

[Pearl River]

This was posted earlier on Youtube by Slidell WFO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95e6mrXSXbE

[northjaxpro]

Hello Ivanhater. Looks like a significant icing event shaping up across the western panhandle. Ice indeed is the absolute worse!