Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[hurricanedude]

Looks like the Jacksonville Fl dodges a bullet!

[Janie2006]

Ivan might have to change his handle to "Snowhater".

[hurricanedude]

no, Ivan (Mike)
Loves Snow.....I think??? LOL

[Ivanhater]

I love snow but I'm stationed in Vegas right now, but I'm very concerned for everyone back home..if this pans out like the forecast of up to .75 of ice and snow on top of that, the Pensacola area has never seen anything like it

[Stormnut]

0z NAM getting ready for blastoff

[hurricanedude]

GFS has a foot in Tidewater, VA it may not be deep south but that's at least worth a mention!

[Countrygirl911]

They are saying up to 6 inches for my area.in SW mississippi

[hurricanedude]

Can someone take the time to go through and post the all time record snowfall for some of the major cities that in the path of this storm so we have something to compare it to???

[TideJoe]

They are saying up to 6 inches for my area.in SW mississippi

That area and around McComb always get good snowfall in these events. Hattiesburg just a hour or so to the east won't get half the snowfall for whatever reason. It always seems like some dry air comes in and stops the party as soon as there's enough snow to cover the ground.

[TideJoe]

Can someone take the time to go through and post the all time record snowfall for some of the major cities that in the path of this storm so we have something to compare it to???

I don't know about all time records, but the most I've seen in Hattiesburg since I've lived here in 2001 is around 3 inches. I lived in the Mobile area from 1980-2001 and never saw more than an inch.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the Jacksonville Fl dodges a bullet!

Well, for the most part yes. But, there is still an opportunity on Wednesday morning to have about a 8-12 hour window of possible sleet or light snow making it into the Jax area. The Low Pressure will at this time be positioned just off the Georgia/South Carolina coast and organiziing. The Low Pressure area will begin to pull away from the area and some wrap around moisture will linger on the back side of the Low early Wednesday. The latest guidance suggests that thermal profiles iwould support sleet or light snow early Wednessday across SE Georgia and even to the coast all the way to about the FL-GA border. The BIG question here in Jax, as always in situations like this, will be timing. Can the coldest of the air filter in this area before the moisture exits? It will be an extremely close call, but even if it happens, the precip will be light and the event very short-lived. So at this time, I don't forsee any significant impacts for my area. But, of course things can change so will keep monitoring the siotuation for sure.

[BigB0882]

I want to say the record in Baton Rouge is around 6 inches or so. We had 3 inches in 2008 and that is by far the most in my lifetime.

The record is 6.5 inches in 1895. The two day total for 1895 was 12.5 inches. That must have been amazing but 1895 was very different than today. In modern times we haven't had more than 3.5 inches. We have the potential to beat the all time record one day snowfall but I very much doubt we do. We could beat our modern day record of 3.5 if the change happens quickly enough.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM. To not make new posts I will post some graphics of different times here.

24 hours.



33 hours.



42 hours.



51 hours.



57 hours.



Other graphic at 57 hours.

[BigB0882]

Most of the 24 hour NAM should be liquid. That is pre-frontal rain. Just for those who don't know.

[Steve]

Hey. Went to the Pels game and stopped at the store for some water, makers, milk and beer. We can always get more, but I figured at least get the base out of the way. I'm thinking that the 10 news will start hyping the event, and people will probably slam the stores tomorrow. It's pretty cool to have back to back weeks of ice threats, as we don't see that very often. We had freezing rain and sleet last week. I'm interested to see what the effects will be. Joe B sounded the blackout alarm, and you have to know that significant freezing rain followed by sleet and snow takes down tree branches and power lines. You have a recipe for potential black ice too. But what about snow? Last significant snowfall I remember was Christmas 2004. There were a few other events back through the 80s and 90s, and certainly we had the 2 snowfalls back in the winter of 72-73. But I'm pretty sure none of the frozen precip totals was much over a half to two thirds of an inch. So the last super major snow event was December 1963 with > 4". I doubt we see anything like that but even an inch and a half to 2 inches in NOLA would be historic and mark time for most of us. I've seen post frontal gulf lows, but I don't recall quite this setup before. So i have no idea what's going to happen. Could be minimal ice impacts and cold as hell to something we never expected. Who knows? Good luck to all between texas and the Carolinas over the next 2-4 days.

[BigB0882]

What is going on with the NAM? Shows all of that great precip but the snow accumulation maps on twister data show very little in the way of snow. Much less than they did previous runs. Only very small places in TX and LA have maybe an inch or snow, but most are less than that. Is it seeing it as all freezing rain? Is it seeing temps too high for frozen precip? That would go against almost all other models.

[BigB0882]

Maybe I spoke too soon. Seems to be filling in now at hr 45.

[cycloneye]

What is going on with the NAM? Shows all of that great precip but the snow accumulation maps on twister data show very little in the way of snow. Much less than they did previous runs. Only very small places in TX and LA have maybe an inch or snow, but most are less than that. Is it seeing it as all freezing rain? Is it seeing temps too high for frozen precip? That would go against almost all other models.

Is sleet.

[MississippiWx]

What is going on with the NAM? Shows all of that great precip but the snow accumulation maps on twister data show very little in the way of snow. Much less than they did previous runs. Only very small places in TX and LA have maybe an inch or snow, but most are less than that. Is it seeing it as all freezing rain? Is it seeing temps too high for frozen precip? That would go against almost all other models.

Lol. Patience. NAM is very pretty for us snow lovers across the Northern Gulf. We must not make it angry. Great trends continue.

[BigB0882]

I definitely spoke too soon, filling in very nicely. Showing 5 inches now.