Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS-Para is very late, but better to be late than never!

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/snku_024h.us_sc2856347bc535719c.png

Lines up with ensembles showing Oklahoma as the big winner. N. Texas is getting precariously close to the gradient of rapidly falling totals.

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

Good points. QPF is higher across Oklahoma but the sharp qpf decline zone is south of Dallas. Adjusting for your points shifts that snowfall dropoff gradient farther south than the ensembles show.

[Ntxw]

QPF is still there though....I believe they're having trouble figuring out the upper air column, forecast soundings are showing a warmer layer around 700-800 mb level causing some of the ensembles to go over to sleet for a period/cutting down on snow totals. They're more than likely overestimating that warm layer, would expect this to be a high ratio snowfall event for most of North Texas

We sit in a very fine line. Oklahoma gets very high ratios due to cold, not necessarily more qpf. If we shift south too much we risk getting cutoff from deep moisture (this was my concern a few days go) if there is a stronger gulf low and thunderstorms to the south (just look at this morning). Too much south can easily dry us up as well.

But we're discussing 2-4" vs 3-6" vs 4-8" . FW took the middle.

Yep, agreed...it's pretty remarkable just to put 2-4" as low end this far out. Ironically, the Wednesday system may be stronger than this one!!

Edit: Right on cue, ICON coming in much weaker with 1st system, stronger with the 2nd LOL!

You mean what could be Tuesday's system now ? Heck why not speed things up and just back to back nonstop snow with a lull in the middle. .

Seriously if you forward the 500mb pattern the flow is chaotic. I don't expect guidance to work out which piece goes where and how it effects the next ripple right now.

[Iceresistance]

Still snowing outside, lighter now than what it was at 7 AM, 16°F

[G'TownGirl]

VERY heavy freezing rain with thunder. Iced up everything. FAST! Road, driveway, sidewalk is covered. Worrying.... Just got a fire going. Trees are covered.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Jeez a I haven’t seen a 100 Car Pileup in Texas since the Beaumont Thanksgiving Pileup in 2012. From north of San Antonio to north of Houston on through North Texas, ArkLaTex, and Oklahoma y’all stay safe.

I think San Antonio may have lucked out with cold rain for the next 24 hours, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes and Bexar Co. gets put under a WWA.

[JDawg512]

Hearing thunder and it's below freezing. This is a first experience for me.. I love storms but would prefer to be above freezing when one comes through...

[utweather]

Jeez a I haven’t seen a 100 Car Pileup in Texas since the Beaumont Thanksgiving Pileup in 2012. From north of San Antonio to north of Houston on through North Texas, ArkLaTex, and Oklahoma y’all stay safe.

I think San Antonio may have lucked out with cold rain for the next 24 hours, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes and Bexar Co. gets put under a WWA.

32.2 degrees here in southeast Austin with some rain and thunder. Coldest rain you can get.
Dodged an ice bullet and missed a snowstorm if it could have been much colder.

[Longhornmaniac8]

31.1 here just SW of the Austin airport, near Pilot Knob. Plenty of thunder, and my grill already has a glaze on it.

[utpmg]

Been mostly dry here in east Austin this morning, but just started precipitating and coating surfaces on my patio.

[rwfromkansas]

Still 25 in north Fort Worth. Impressive since it was supposed to warm above freezing again. Yesterday didn't even really do that as it stuck at 32 IMBY.

[txtwister78]

12z ICON...btw odd hearing thunder outside right now sitting at 34 degrees.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Jeez a I haven’t seen a 100 Car Pileup in Texas since the Beaumont Thanksgiving Pileup in 2012. From north of San Antonio to north of Houston on through North Texas, ArkLaTex, and Oklahoma y’all stay safe.

I think San Antonio may have lucked out with cold rain for the next 24 hours, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes and Bexar Co. gets put under a WWA.

32.2 degrees here in southeast Austin with some rain and thunder. Coldest rain you can get.
Dodged an ice bullet and missed a snowstorm if it could have been much colder.

I think later this afternoon/tonight is probably what y’all should be worried about. I know for us it’s gonna be raining until after midnight.

[GeauxTigers]

Is anyone having trouble logging on on computer? I can get on thru my phone but still not laptop. Couldn’t all day yesterday either.

[Ntxw]

Is anyone having trouble logging on on computer? I can get on thru my phone but still not laptop. Couldn’t all day yesterday either.

Clear your cache has been the fix.

[sphelps8681]

Ft. Worth Accident. Sorry don't know how to put this in but to copy the url. Hope it comes out. https://www.facebook.com/randle.k.smith ... 4298373070

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs is almost a carbon copy of the 0z at 500mb. Looks like a good run for a big swath of snow across the state, and maybe trying to revert to slower timing. If the euro holds its slower timing next run, I bet the others will start to slow down gradually as well.

[Cerlin]

Woke up this morning in Norman to what looks like lake effect snow from the northern OKC lakes. We’ve gotten a solid dusting and stuff is continuing to fall. Never been in a surprise snowstorm like this—there was a 2% chance of precipitation according to TWC. This has been amazing.

[GeauxTigers]

Is anyone having trouble logging on on computer? I can get on thru my phone but still not laptop. Couldn’t all day yesterday either.

Clear your cache has been the fix.

Thank you so much!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Theres another pocket of very cold air just north of Alaska that I've been watching for the last few runs. Interested to see if it hooks up with the trough for the Thursday event. Would provide an extra jolt of cold air.

[Brandon8181]

Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?