Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

I've learned that those Canadians who I forced to build the wall used sub-par materials, and they didn't build it as high as was needed.

Well well well, construction grade materials...well well well...may 6 inches of snow fall upon your house young sir!!

give him credit, he’s very pro snow when it’s cold. I don’t think he’d balk at 6 inches on his warm bike seat.

Correct. I love it when it snows. Cold without snow is useless.

[Tireman4]

Well well well, construction grade materials...well well well...may 6 inches of snow fall upon your house young sir!!

give him credit, he’s very pro snow when it’s cold. I don’t think he’d balk at 6 inches on his warm bike seat.

Correct. I love it when it snows. Cold without snow is useless.

I wonder what South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are thinking now..and would they be rubbing it in..you know South Texas Storms has that nice shiny award for his brilliant forecasting, sir.

[South Texas Storms]

We are scheming about how cold it's about to get and how much snow will fall on wxman57's bike

[wxman57]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:
We are scheming about how cold it's about to get and how much snow will fall on wxman57's bike

Oh man...I would love to see that...freaking 6-8 inches on his bike, garden, snow skis....

[Tireman4]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs...

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

But you said not to trust the models this far out.

[wxman57]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs...

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

But you said not to trust the models this far out.

It's fine to trust the models that far out, but only if they are predicting warm weather. In this case, the trend is my friend.

[bubba hotep]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

I haven't looked at either run in detail but that looks like a snowcover issue. Snow on the ground vs no snow?

[wxman57]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

I haven't looked at either run in detail but that looks like a snowcover issue. Snow on the ground vs no snow?

If we were to add up all the snow that the FV3-GFS has predicted for Texas then we all would have received several feet by now. It's looking like a significant downgrade over the current GFS.

[Tireman4]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs...

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

But you said not to trust the models this far out.

It's fine to trust the models that far out, but only if they are predicting warm weather. In this case, the trend is my friend.

Yeah, if it is predicting 90's next week, nails...

[harp]

We all love the models when they depict what we want! LOL!

[bubba hotep]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

I haven't looked at either run in detail but that looks like a snowcover issue. Snow on the ground vs no snow?

If we were to add up all the snow that the FV3-GFS has predicted for Texas then we all would have received several feet by now. It's looking like a significant downgrade over the current GFS.

I'm specifically taking about the run-to-run changes between those two specific runs. Notice how the cold over N. Texas (on the cold run) is cutoff from the cold to the N & NE. The next run looks more like what you expect to see given the national map. Euro has this same bias at range and can produce some ridiculously low temps in the longer range when snow is on the ground.

[Texas Snowman]

Correct. I love it when it snows. Cold without snow is useless.

You obviously don’t know the joy of poking a fire in a wood burning stove or a fireplace.

[wxman57]

Correct. I love it when it snows. Cold without snow is useless.

You obviously don’t know the joy of poking a fire in a wood burning stove or a fireplace.

An, no, I don't have much experience with fireplaces or wood-burning stoves. I have a thermostat at home, which I can control from my phone. I guess that's not the same...

[Brent]

Euro is trying at day 8, snow out in SW TX, never progresses east but hey its day 8

[hriverajr]

Euro is trying at day 8, snow out in SW TX, never progresses east but hey its day 8

I'll take that I see it's just north of my area, but fairly substantial.. but it is day 8 hehe

[WinterMax]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

Yeah, the only experience I have is following these models the last couple of years, then see what actually happens. I'd guess the models will go up and down with temps and precip for the next few days. But the trend will be temps rising. It might end up being close to what we just experienced, which is pretty normal weather patterns for down here.

[WinterMax]

Meanwhile, I'm working in Jacksonville Tx today, and on my break this morning I saw 5 or 6 snow flurries, so that's the extent of winter precip experience this winter

[Haris]

Well, look what model is suddenly trending quite a bit warmer for Texas next week. That cold-mogering FV3-GFS is backing off on next week's cold. From 14F in the DFW area to 34F between the 00Z and 12z runs. Oh, and no more snow for the D-FW area in the 12z run.

http://wxman57.com/images/fv3.gif

I haven't looked at either run in detail but that looks like a snowcover issue. Snow on the ground vs no snow?

If we were to add up all the snow that the FV3-GFS has predicted for Texas then we all would have received several feet by now. It's looking like a significant downgrade over the current GFS.

Agreed. Yep.

[Brent]

Euro is trying at day 8, snow out in SW TX, never progresses east but hey its day 8

I'll take that I see it's just north of my area, but fairly substantial.. but it is day 8 hehe

At least its not east of us this time

Hopefully a good sign