Texas Winter 2020-2021

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4721 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:19 am

Cerlin wrote:Woke up this morning in Norman to what looks like lake effect snow from the northern OKC lakes. We’ve gotten a solid dusting and stuff is continuing to fall. Never been in a surprise snowstorm like this—there was a 2% chance of precipitation according to TWC. This has been amazing.
https://i.ibb.co/HxJwxRh/2-AB0-AA4-B-1400-40-EA-B789-1564-E06-C0-C46.jpg

:cold: :ggreen:

Snowing here too! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4722 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:23 am

Brandon8181 wrote:Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?


Thanks for asking this. Our neighborhood FB page says our insulation in the attic is good. But, I seriously doubt it can handle single-digit temps. But, I don't think we can bring portable electric heaters up there, that would be dangerous. May have to get pipe insulation. They say Pex handles cold better at least.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4723 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:24 am

Snowing and sleeting outside right now. Was just Thundering freezing rain and sleet earlier. Roads and sidewalks have ice on them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4724 Postby Brandon8181 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:25 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?


Thanks for asking this. Our neighborhood FB page says our insulation in the attic is good. But, I seriously doubt it can handle single-digit temps. But, I don't think we can bring portable electric heaters up there, that would be dangerous. May have to get pipe insulation. They say Pex handles cold better at least.


Yup, I mentioned to my wife about putting a couple of heaters in the attic, but she said probably not a good idea.... so idk...
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4725 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:29 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:12z gfs is almost a carbon copy of the 0z at 500mb. Looks like a good run for a big swath of snow across the state, and maybe trying to revert to slower timing. If the euro holds its slower timing next run, I bet the others will start to slow down gradually as well.


Canadian looks a little better too after being bone dry for so long.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4726 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:30 am

12z GFS slightly warmer than the last couple of runs but still gets DFW down to near 0F with subzero readings for surrounding areas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4727 Postby SoupBone » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:30 am

Houston keeps going from the possibility of 2-5" of snow and 1/8" of ice to rainy mess. We're so on the border of this system, it's going to be a nerve-racking couple of days.

Where's Wxman! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4728 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:32 am

Brandon8181 wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:Stupid Question:

So, every time the temperature gets in the low 20's for about 2 days our pipes ALWAYS freeze (along with the neighborhood). We have pex tubing in the attic. I'm a little concerned with temperatures dropping in the single digits or WORSE.

So the question is, if I simply leave the water running (not full blast, but much more than a drip), will that keep the pipes from freezing?


Thanks for asking this. Our neighborhood FB page says our insulation in the attic is good. But, I seriously doubt it can handle single-digit temps. But, I don't think we can bring portable electric heaters up there, that would be dangerous. May have to get pipe insulation. They say Pex handles cold better at least.


Yup, I mentioned to my wife about putting a couple of heaters in the attic, but she said probably not a good idea.... so idk...


Another option is pulling down the ladder and leaving it down during the entirety of the cold snap so that some of the heat goes up into your attic. I would do that in combination with running the water at a little more than just a drip. I'd rather pay a higher electricity and water bill than have busted pipes in an attic. We have the same thing but I don't think our temps should get that low, even though the latest GFS has us hitting 9 degrees. I'm hoping that's out to lunch for us in SELA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4729 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:34 am

GEFS continues it's run to run consistency....right now, looks like a 4-8 inch snowfall event potential Sunday/Monday (with 12 to 15:1 ratios possible) across a wide swath of the State. Higher amounts the further north your local!

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4730 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:35 am

orangeblood wrote:GEFS continues it's run to run consistency....right now, looks like a 4-8 inch snowfall event potential (with 12 to 15:1 ratios possible) across a wide swath of the State. Higher amounts the further north your local!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1613044800/1613444400-Ohssj2Q2ONM.png

What is the Kuchera Ratio looking like? (Unless it does not exist there . . . :P)
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4731 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 am

:lol: At the CMC it snows forever. I'm not sure posting maps for it is even worth it for cliff diving tendencies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4732 Postby utweather » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:38 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
utweather wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Jeez a I haven’t seen a 100 Car Pileup in Texas since the Beaumont Thanksgiving Pileup in 2012. From north of San Antonio to north of Houston on through North Texas, ArkLaTex, and Oklahoma y’all stay safe.

I think San Antonio may have lucked out with cold rain for the next 24 hours, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes and Bexar Co. gets put under a WWA.

32.2 degrees here in southeast Austin with some rain and thunder. Coldest rain you can get.
Dodged an ice bullet and missed a snowstorm if it could have been much colder.

I think later this afternoon/tonight is probably what y’all should be worried about. I know for us it’s gonna be raining until after midnight.


Yeah I may have spoken too soon. Tree limbs are starting to get weighed down by ice. I went outside to try and shake them off some.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4733 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:38 am

SoupBone wrote:Houston keeps going from the possibility of 2-5" of snow and 1/8" of ice to rainy mess. We're so on the border of this system, it's going to be a nerve-racking couple of days.

Where's Wxman! :lol:


No, if you look at the temps and surface output, Greater Houston looks icy as hell. Freezing rain and sleet. Only places that might see rain would be over to Beaumont or the immediate beaches
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4734 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:40 am

Ntxw wrote::lol: At the CMC it snows forever. I'm not sure posting maps for it is even worth it for cliff diving tendencies.


Come on now, you know you want to.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4735 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:42 am

Ntxw wrote::lol: At the CMC it snows forever. I'm not sure posting maps for it is even worth it for cliff diving tendencies.

It also slows the system a bit and amplifies it considerably compared to the previous run
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4736 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:42 am

BigB0882 wrote:
Ntxw wrote::lol: At the CMC it snows forever. I'm not sure posting maps for it is even worth it for cliff diving tendencies.


Come on now, you know you want to.

Waiting for the Model run to finish far enough to post any maps . . .
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4737 Postby Cerlin » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:43 am

I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4738 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:44 am

orangeblood wrote:GEFS continues it's run to run consistency....right now, looks like a 4-8 inch snowfall event potential Sunday/Monday (with 12 to 15:1 ratios possible) across a wide swath of the State. Higher amounts the further north your local!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/total_snow_10to1/1613044800/1613444400-Ohssj2Q2ONM.png


You're never going to see those amounts and consistency for a 3-5 day range from the ensembles like that for such a large region involved again this far south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4739 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:47 am

Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.

It picks up on News 9 radar, Link is here: https://www.news9.com/nextgen-live-radar
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#4740 Postby Cerlin » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:48 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I keep thinking the snow here is gonna stop but it’s actually gotten stronger! We’ve already gotten a dusting and if this continued for another couple of hours it could easily reach half an inch. Models didn’t even mention this as a possibility, and the radars/weather apps still aren’t convinced it’s actually snowing.

It picks up on News 9 radar, Link is here: https://www.news9.com/nextgen-live-radar

Well, I said that before I actually checked real radars—Radarscope has it too thankfully. Weather Channel just switched to saying it’s snowing now. Woot woot! :lol: :D
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