Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

[rwfromkansas]

How can an “upgrade” be so bad? It’s awful. Europe can figure it out. Why not us?

[South Texas Storms]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

12z Euro Ensemble more bullish with the winter storm threat across much of the northern half of TX late next week.

[Cpv17]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

[Cpv17]

:roflmao: winter may be uncancelled... til next run

https://i.ibb.co/fYxdrt6/fv3p-asnow-us-39.png

the Euro has some snow overspreading at the very end of the run further out than the FV GFS

One thing I have noticed with the long range snow maps that nail DFW is the large snow hole near Kansas, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado. It would be nice if that could fill in at some point. Anyway, the snow will probably disappear in today's runs.

I’ve been complaining about this all winter. Where is the snow in that region? They seriously can’t buy a storm there this winter! We need a solid snowpack to our north.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Well if you are an English football fan, Liverpool have had snow, sleet, and rain in the past half hour.


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[Texas Snowman]

Correct. I love it when it snows. Cold without snow is useless.

You obviously don’t know the joy of poking a fire in a wood burning stove or a fireplace.

An, no, I don't have much experience with fireplaces or wood-burning stoves. I have a thermostat at home, which I can control from my phone. I guess that's not the same...

No, it’s not the same. Kind of like wearing all-cotton for one of your summertime bike rides in Houston. It might do the job, but it isn’t much fun.

What happened to the kinder, gentler Wxman57? That sarcastic post earlier was tiptoeing on the line. Thought about reporting it to the moderators (joking of course). I mean there’s some pretty edgy folks in this forum these days.

But then I thought I’d be reporting you to...you.

[orangeblood]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

East of Texas ??? EPS Mean has greater than 1/2 inch QPF for over half the state over the next 10 days (with Southeast Texas approaching 1.5 in.) and a lot of that is in the form of frozen precip for the N/2 of the QPF shield. Its the most bullish winter weather run inside 10 days we've had all winter - it appears 60-70 % of its members has some sort of winter storm moving across the State within 10 days. As far as a Texas Winter Weather discussion forum goes, there aren't many things to get more excited about than this set up in the 7-10 range

[Cpv17]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

East of Texas ??? EPS Mean has greater than 1/2 inch QPF for over half the state over the next 10 days (with Southeast Texas approaching 1.5 in.) and a lot of that is in the form of frozen precip for the N/2 of the QPF shield. Its the most bullish winter weather run inside 10 days we've had all winter!!

I wasn’t talking about just frozen stuff lol I was including rain. Look how much it has out in the Gulf and over towards Mississippi and Alabama. I would agree with you that it’s the best run yet of this winter regarding the frozen stuff, but at the same time it doesn’t really make much sense because it has temps above freezing for a good chunk of Texas throughout the duration of the run.

[Haris]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

I was referring to snow.

[Cpv17]

It’s encouraging to see that the CPC has us projected for below normal temps and above normal precip. Most importantly to me though is that it’s indicating above normal temps for the SE. I just hope that doesn’t go too far west.

[Cpv17]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

I was referring to snow.

I knew you were. It just doesn’t make sense to me though because it’s not even that cold.

[orangeblood]

Ehhh it still has most of the precip east of Texas overall. Has a ton of qpf out in the Gulf and over the SE as well. Long ways to go yet. Nothing really exciting on the models yet imo. Still has a lot more trending to do in my eyes.

East of Texas ??? EPS Mean has greater than 1/2 inch QPF for over half the state over the next 10 days (with Southeast Texas approaching 1.5 in.) and a lot of that is in the form of frozen precip for the N/2 of the QPF shield. Its the most bullish winter weather run inside 10 days we've had all winter!!

I wasn’t talking about just frozen stuff lol I was including rain. Look how much it has out in the Gulf and over towards Mississippi and Alabama. I would agree with you that it’s the best run yet of this winter regarding the frozen stuff, but at the same time it doesn’t really make much sense because it has temps above freezing for a good chunk of Texas throughout the duration of the run.

I know and that's where I believe its best to step back (particularly in the 8-9 day range) and actually analyze the model, not take it verbatim! Just look at the MSLP map late next week - do you really believe that majority of the state is going to be above freezing with a 1048 HP sitting in that position over the central plains ? IMO, the model's surface temps doesn't make any sense with its itself on this run!

[wxman57]

What happened to the kinder, gentler Wxman57? That sarcastic post earlier was tiptoeing on the line. Thought about reporting it to the moderators (joking of course). I mean there’s some pretty edgy folks in this forum these days.

But then I thought I’d be reporting you to...you.

I have no idea what "sarcastic post" you are talking about. I thought I WAS being kinder, gentler. Here's a 12Z Euro snow map for your D-FW area folks.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like some of us from Austin to the Red River area may or may not get some frozen precipitation on Friday.


SPC AC 300751

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginal severe thunderstorms could develop across portions of
central and north-central Texas Friday.

...TX...

Notable mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject into the
Big Bend region of west TX by 02/00z. In response to this feature,
modified Gulf air mass is expected to begin advancing north across
the coastal plain of TX as old coastal boundary lifts inland ahead
of this system. Models are in general agreement regarding the
speed/movement of the short wave with 500mb temperatures expected to
cool to near -20C as exit region of jet spreads toward central TX.
While surface dew points are expected to rise through the 50s across
the MRGL risk, in all likelihood surface-based convection will
struggle to develop. Forecast soundings suggest most buoyant parcels
will be rooted near 1km AGL and warm advection atop the retreating
boundary should enhance ascent for potential convective development.
With mid-level lapse rates expected to approach 8 C/km, strongest
updrafts could produce some hail as MUCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg.
Convective clusters are expected to evolve during the afternoon then
spread northeast toward southeastern OK during the overnight hours.

...Elsewhere...

A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a strong short-wave trough
in the SFO Bay region as a cold front surges toward the coast late
in the period.

A few thunderstorms may also develop within weakly confluent
low-level flow along the southeastern coast of the FL peninsula.
Large-scale support for organized convection appears to be lacking
across FL as weak height rises are expected across this region.

..Darrow.. 01/30/2019

[Quixotic]

If it snows, I hope it waits til I’m back from Ontario.

[Brent]

man I don't think I've seen the EPS look that good in awhile Feb 7-12 make or break the winter lol, the high end is over 5 inches for DFW

[bubba hotep]

I def like the euro run today. 1" in Austin but a ton more just W. Lets hope others come on board. EPS snowier and wetter too.

12z Euro Ensemble more bullish with the winter storm threat across much of the northern half of TX late next week.

One of the better looking inside of D10 EPS runs of the winter. Nearly 70% of the members support some variation of the OP with the most impressive cluster being along and north of I20.

[bubba hotep]

Wow, the D15 Euro EPS is textbook blocking! Cold is locked in.

[orangeblood]

Wow, the D15 Euro EPS is textbook blocking! Cold is locked in.

Yep, Western Canada continues to re-load...going towards what weeklies have been showing for Feb