Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I am pretty sure its global warming!! Most scientists agree the Earth is warming. The cause is debatable. The signs are everywhere. In every corner of the Earth. Its really interesting to read about some of the effects in Alaska and Russia. The change is much more dramatic at higher latitudes.

Regardless... it will continue to make our winters warmer overall.


In fact... the map that Snow_Wizzard showed from 1968-1974 is very interesting as well. Some researchers actually think that was the start of global warming. A general cooling as sunlight was reduced and then rampant warming as the greenhouses started to build up.

The question is... does the warming occur slowly or will it jump ahead even faster.

The weather could become more interesting in some ways. More thunderstorms and heat waves. But less lowland snow is almost certain.

[Guest]

I continue to disagree... I will talk tomorrow... I am tired and exhausted from listening to you tell me the same things over and over again. Yes a lot of scientists say it is global warming... but you are continuously saying that we will get less and less snow from here on out... So what happens when we get a full boar La Nina in here, -PDO, -PNA, -AO and NAO? Are we just going to continue to get screwed or is global warming going to keep that from happening? We are going to get nailed

[R-Dub]

Hello from Moses Lake

Currently at 6:30AM its perfectly clear with a temp of 34 degrees

Got some awesome pics of cloud formations over here yesterday afternoon, can't wait to show everyone!!
Yesterdays high was 64 degrees after a low of 33 degrees.

[vbhoutex]

I am pretty sure its global warming!! Most scientists agree the Earth is warming. The cause is debatable. The signs are everywhere. In every corner of the Earth. Its really interesting to read about some of the effects in Alaska and Russia. The change is much more dramatic at higher latitudes.

Regardless... it will continue to make our winters warmer overall.


In fact... the map that Snow_Wizzard showed from 1968-1974 is very interesting as well. Some researchers actually think that was the start of global warming. A general cooling as sunlight was reduced and then rampant warming as the greenhouses started to build up.

The question is... does the warming occur slowly or will it jump ahead even faster.

The weather could become more interesting in some ways. More thunderstorms and heat waves. But less lowland snow is almost certain.

The key phrase in your post is highlighted along with another phrase about "thinking".

Are you sure this is not just cyclical weather happening? There has been more than one "ice age" or "mini ice age" as well as warmer times also. Without man around then what caused those?

There have been several long winded and somewhat heated discusssions about global warming here at S2k. I am to busy/lazy to dig them up right now. It is too bad you have missed them.

[Guest]

I think you should get in on this discussion Vboux or whatever your name is...

[vbhoutex]

I pretty much said what I feel is going on. If I can find some time after work today, I will possibly join in and maybe bring in some others(and it would not be one sided). When we get into these discussions they tend to draw from all levels of expertise we have at this site which means there is some very spirited debate about the issue sometimes.

Basically, it is my contention, without a lot of back up one way or the other, that we are really in a cyclical weather pattern more than anything, but with some "influences" from mankind and his progress. However, the caveat to all of this is MOTHER NATURE WILL ALWAYS WIN NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

I agree.

I believe a natural cycle is the root cause of the global warming... with a supporting role from humans.

My point is... everyone knows the Earth is warming. When discussing the effects on weather patterns the cause is not so important.

If we just offset the last cold cycle (1400-1860) then we can expect this overall warming to last until about the year 2220!!

As much I would like... I doubt I will be around to see it.

[andycottle]

Good morning all. Skies are mostly sunny here this morning, and forecast for today is sunny skies temps in the low-mid 60`s. Currently I have a temp of 39 with humidity 100%, DP 39, and at 30.12 and steady.

Latest GFS is showing mostly dry weather through rest of this week with maybe a few showers over the weekend.

-- Andy

[Guest]

TT i understand what you are saying but that wouldn't be global warming if it were cyclic... This is what i have been saying about this whole thing and why i disagree about global warming... I think it is a cycle and we have been in a warmer phase as of late. But now we are in the midst of switching back... You first said we are in global warming and will continue warming consistantly but you weren't sure how fast... Now you are saying we are in the midst of a 200 or so year cycle and the cycle might switch things back to a cooling phase 100 or so years from now, that would not be global warming... Yes the earth may be warming now, but that doesn't fit the definition of global warming really, it is just a natural cycle... And i agree with Vbhoutex about mother nature overpowering mankind... Mother nature is a powerful thing that will win out no matter what. By saying this is cyclic TT you cannot say it is global warming as well, the two don't fit.

[TT-SEA]

The Earth is in a cycle of warming.

That is global warming.

Even if its natural.

The result is the same.

[snow_wizzard]

This has got to be the most convoluted pattern I have seen since I've been looking at the models.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... 0_084m.htm

Very odd stuff. I would say the temperatures for the 3 - 6 day period are in huge doubt right now. They could easily end up anywhere from well above normal to a bit below. we will have to wait and see how it all plays out. I still think if the southerly flow really kicks in we will see some thunderstorms. Moist southerly flow almost always brings thunderstorms from April through the summer.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You are forgetting about the short cycles within the longer term cycles. There is little doubt that we will see a colder period in the near future, than what we have witnessed over the past 10 years or so.

Covington had a low of 34 today and we have a monthly average low of 37.0! That is remarkably low when you consider how wet the month has been. So far we have had 15 lows below 40 this month, and that is with a lot of cloudy nights. Not too bad!

[TT-SEA]

I think most of the summer is going to be below normal.

I also understand that there are cooler cycles within an overall warm cycle.

But the effects are muted. Look at the entire country over the last 15 years during the winter months. No place was colder than average even though there should have been a colder cycle somewhere. Its not just the U.S... Europe and Russia are experiencing the same effects.

The effects of global warming also seem to be focused particularly on locations above and below 40N and 40S lattitude. And much stronger during the winter season.

[andycottle]

Good late morning all. A very nice sunny day here it is! Clear blue skies with just a few stratus to stratus fractus(not very well formed stratus cloud) floating about the sky. My current temp right now at 11:08a.m is 54 with humidity at 63% and DP 43 with baro 30.06 and slowly falling.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I hope you guys like ridging and temperatures WAY above normal.

The new ECMWF confirms that we are going to be solidly under a ridge for quite a long time. It has been much more reliable than the GFS.

Still... we could have southerly flow and some scattered thunderstorms this weekend.

But the real message is sunshine and warm temperatures.

Of course... I have been repeating this for days now!! Even while some people insisted a "cold trough" was going to plow into us from the north.

The details have been sketchy but ridging and split has been the theme and when you see that... assume warm and dry for Western Washington.

[andycottle]

Good afternoon all! A fine and nice sunny day today! Sunny skies and just a few clouds over the mountains. My current temp at 2:01pm is 62 with humidity 49%. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

An AWESOME day today!! Not as warm as I'd like, but I'll take the sun! The sun puts me in a better mood!!

This weather should continue for the forseeable future...although the GFS does some funky stuff with the upper level low in Idaho, I don't think it will have any impact on our weather aside from a few high clouds. And next weekend, most places will be ABOVE 70F. I can almost guarantee. This current pattern is shaping up to be exactly like most of February...a Rex block in Western Canada with an extreme split flow...the only difference is it's the end of April and 500 mb heights are ALOT higher...thus temperatures will be warmer!!

AND SUMMER IS ALMOST HERE!!!

Anthony

[andycottle]

Sunny afternoon here too, Anthony! Current temp here at 3:39pm is 64 degrees and 49% humidity. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Latest 18z GFS showing dry weather for about the rest of this work week except for maybe a few scattered showers over the Cascades saturday afternoon as 500MB winds are roughly 30kts out of the South, SW. Up at 700MB...humidiy looks around 90% or so, and with a southerly wind. May be a light onshore flow as the 850MB winds are light and from the west. 24hr - 60hr precip totals for saturday afternoon are showing very light amounts, so should only get a few light showers and or sprinkles over the cascades.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Clear blue skies and a temp of 65 here at 4:33pm. What a nice afternoon it is!