Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[BrokenGlass]

The NWS Fort Worth in their latest discussion expects the front to stall for a bit up around the Red River and not come through DFW until later tonight.

Well that went out the window since the front is already south of the Denton airport

Maybe the stall has happened, since it's 53.6 and holding here in North Richardson (about 200 feet from the Collin County Line.

[wxman57]

Note that I just made a slight correction to both meteogram spreadsheets to make the precip units on the right side line up properly. Here are the new spreadsheets:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Meteogram.xls <-- right click and save target as

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/MeteogramNAM.xls

Thanks wxman57! Will look at them....

Oh, and that ARL website can be used to get all kinds of data, not just temps/precip. An experienced Excel user can adjust the spreadsheets to plot anything there. We made a spreadsheet to plot temps, wind speed and wind chill, for example.

[wxman57]

Maybe the stall has happened, since it's 53.6 and holding here in North Richardson (about 200 feet from the Collin County Line.

It looks like the low is forming now - just west of Abilene. That will slow the southward progress of the front into Dallas.

[Ntxwx]

edit

[WeatherKing]

The front is through Mckinney, looks to be near Allen

[Weatherdude20]

The NWS Fort Worth in their latest discussion expects the front to stall for a bit up around the Red River and not come through DFW until later tonight.

Well that went out the window since the front is already south of the Denton airport

Maybe the stall has happened, since it's 53.6 and holding here in North Richardson (about 200 feet from the Collin County Line.

Its not to Richardson yet.

[wxman57]

Having difficulty getting the 84-hr 40km NAM so I made a meteogram for D-FW using the 12km but only 48-hr NAM. Shows temps in the lower 40s with rain overnight but mid 50s and light rain through the day today.

[WeatherKing]

I'm curious how this will affect the forecast. I imagine Denton and Northern parts of Collin County will be near freezing about 5 hours earlier than the forecast suggested

[srainhoutx]

LUB Update...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1028 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SERN ARIZONA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. JET
STREAK EVIDENT OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WITH PROFILER NETWORK
SHOWING STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. SECONDARY
JET STREAK BEGINNING TO ROTATE INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. JET
ENERGY WILL HOLD STRENGTH OF THE LOW IF NOT DEEPEN A BIT AS IT
SHIFTS NEWD INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. HENCE 12Z NAM AND RUC CYCLES SEEM
REASONABLE WITH CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION AREA THROUGH THE
AFTN BEFORE UPPER LIFT BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
/IN THE 285K-295K LAYER/ QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO NEUTRAL AND THEN
DOWNGLIDE AFTER THAT.

CONTINUE TO FIGHT PRECIP PHASE AS STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING IS
BATTLING STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. NWRN ZONES SEEING A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHILE SRN ZONES HAVE SEEN MOSTLY RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH LATEST BATCH OF PRECIP HAS SEEN STRONG
ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO GENERATE SLEET AND SNOW IN AND SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK.

PREVIOUS FCST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED
WITH WIND HAVE LED TO ICING CONCERNS ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND HAVE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AS THAT
WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THERE. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP FCST
GIVEN RECENT TREND.

[wxman57]

New GFS 12Z meteogram for D-FW airport area. Shows precip ending in the area with the temperature of 35F or higher tomorrow.

[wxman57]

Update: Meteograms updated to adjust the precip scale on the right to go up to 1.50 inches from previous 0.75". It's a bit complex choosing a proper range, as the number of units must correspond to the number of degrees on the left vertical axis.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Meteogram.xls

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/MeteogramNAM.xls

[Portastorm]

NWSFO Austin/San Antonio not doing a good job on forecast consistency. Yesterday morning we had rain mixed with sleet in the forecast for Friday morning ... then the mid morning update removed it and it stayed out until this morning. Again, this morning, it was added. Now, it has been taken out again!

The Teeter-Totter Method, I guess.

[Weatherdude20]

What went through Denton and Mckinney and Southern Wise county area, was the head of the front...

All it did was setup a colder airmass and a windshift... It dropped degress a bit...

The nose of the Coldest air is JUST south if the red river, and currently; spilling over the border.

From Ardmore, Oklahoma to about Nocona, or Montague looks to be where the main cold front is setting up and taking place, after the wind shift and minor drop of temps, expect the main cold front to sweep through about 45-60 mins afterwards, finally droppin temps to low-mid 30's. Which, yes was NOT excpeted to move through DFW area until MUCH MUCH longer.
This setup of the slower track of the low, and faster track of the Cold air, COULD case a major forecast change by the NWSFO. thats my 2 cents.

Ps. It's 50, winds from the east and raining here

[WeatherKing]

Grayson County Airport is down to 39 degrees, BTW that is a pretty good looking squall line that has formed south of San Angelo

[HockeyTx82]

So when should we expect to see a change in the forecast from the Ft Worth Office or any possible warnings or advisories to go up for Denton or more of NTX?

Would everyone agree that what we are seeing is not what the models showed yesterday and things are turing into a more possible frozen precip event?

[orangeblood]

New GFS 12Z meteogram for D-FW airport area. Shows precip ending in the area with the temperature of 35F or higher tomorrow.

The temperatures on the model meteograms seem worthless. For example, the 12z NAM model has at temperature of 42 for the high today in Wichita Falls, its already 35 and falling. The models are busting across most locations in Oklahoma and North Texas. Throw them out.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: So when should we expect to see a change in the forecast from the Ft Worth Office or any possible warnings or advisories to go up for Denton or more of NTX?

Would everyone agree that what we are seeing is not what the models showed yesterday and things are turing into a more possible frozen precip event?

Just looked at yesterday's GFS 2m data for the D-FW airport and it's right on as far as temps. The low center has formed just WNW-NW of Abilene. Cold front extends to the east to just north of Dallas and also to the southwest of the low. It's going to be hard for that sub-freezing air to move south through Dallas until tomorrow when the low center and upper trof pass. And that's when the precip will come to an end. So it doesn't look like a big ice problem for the D-FW Metroplex.

[Weatherdude20]

Grayson County Airport is down to 39 degrees, BTW that is a pretty good looking squall line that has formed south of San Angelo

http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Gaines ... code=z6286

Like I had said 37 In Gainesville.

[msstateguy83]

wxman57 how serious do you think things could get up here around the w.falls region on ice totals?

[Weatherdude20]

:uarrow: So when should we expect to see a change in the forecast from the Ft Worth Office or any possible warnings or advisories to go up for Denton or more of NTX?

Would everyone agree that what we are seeing is not what the models showed yesterday and things are turing into a more possible frozen precip event?

My guess is before 3:00pm