Texas Winter 2010-2011

Turtle · #4761 Postby **Turtle** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:41 pm

Winter Weather Advisory getting closer to me. 2 counties north and 1 county west!

NWS SHV

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE
ADVISORY AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I30...WHILE A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I30.

#4762 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:42 pm

I think heavy precip will be there. The core of it will be from Just east of Abilene to the metroplex into Eastern Oklahoma and probably won't change. It's just a matter of when the cold air meets up with it (sooner in the west, later in the east). The sooner it is, the more wintry precip obviously.

iorange55 · #4763 Postby **iorange55** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:44 pm

Ntxw wrote:I think heavy precip will be there. The core of it will be from Just east of Abilene to the metroplex into Eastern Oklahoma and probably won't change. It's just a matter of when the cold air meets up with it (sooner in the west, later in the east). The sooner it is, the more wintry precip obviously.

I think so too and with each model now putting the cold through here faster I think we have a decent shot of going above 2 inches (in the Dallas area) but I'm not a pro by any means. So I'd go by their forecast.

The potential is there, though.

#4764 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:46 pm

According to the latest model runs, how much snow could I possibly get in College Station on Thursday/Friday?

MSUDawg · #4765 Postby **MSUDawg** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z GFS just upped the ante 2-4 Dallas proper westward into Denton and Tarrant counties (3" line crossing the airport). Probably 4-8 West side of FW up to Decatur.

3" of white fun sounds fun to me as I'm just south of the airport. woohoo!! No sleep tonight

northtxboy · #4766 Postby **northtxboy** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:49 pm

I wish I was in the WSW

iorange55 · #4767 Postby **iorange55** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:50 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:According to the latest model runs, how much snow could I possibly get in College Station on Thursday/Friday?

GFS 18z shows maybe up to an inch. I hear all the models might not be showing enough moisture, though.

Metalicwx220 · #4768 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:51 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:According to the latest model runs, how much snow could I possibly get in College Station on Thursday/Friday?

Half an inch.

downsouthman1 · #4769 Postby **downsouthman1** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:53 pm

BrokenGlass wrote:Is the front still on the march? I woulda thought it would be near OKC by now, but temps there are still above freezing.

OKC is probably not below freezing yet because of the way the extreme cold air is oriented. It's very North-South oriented, from the Rockies. That's why it's colder to the West of OKC, like in West Central OK or even moreso in the TX Panhandle.

#4770 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:53 pm

Arctic boundary moved through Lubbock. Went from 62-38.

#4771 Postby **Brandon8181** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:54 pm

All I have to say is YOU WANT SNOW YOU GOT SNOW ..

I guess it was around Friday/Saturday time frame, when all the models backed off I was literally about to flip a coin.. Although I never "officially" changed my forecast - its interesting to see where we are now.

#4772 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:Arctic boundary moved through Lubbock. Went from 62-38.

Now we need to watch the eastward progression, which will be slower than the southward.

kb75007 · #4773 Postby **kb75007** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:54 pm

According to the map from the NWS, it says the most precip accumulation is going to be west and north of Dallas. Are they pretty positive on that or are they still unsure and it could change?

#4774 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:55 pm

kb75007 wrote:According to the map from the NWS, it says the most precip accumulation is going to be west and north of Dallas. Are they pretty positive on that or are they still unsure and it could change?

That map has constantly been changing. Take it with a grain of salt. Good for general idea.

iorange55 · #4775 Postby **iorange55** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:57 pm

I say before 10pm we all give our best guesses for snowfall accumulations.

downsouthman1 · #4776 Postby **downsouthman1** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:57 pm

It appears the arctic intrusion is on Sweetwater/Abilene's doorstep as we speak.

northtxboy · #4777 Postby **northtxboy** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:59 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:All I have to say is YOU WANT SNOW YOU GOT SNOW ..

I guess it was around Friday/Saturday time frame, when all the models backed off I was literally about to flip a coin.. Although I never "officially" changed my forecast - its interesting to see where we are now.

I am not even in the WSW ,,,,can you beleave that crap!!!

#4778 Postby **txagwxman** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:59 pm

Feb 12th, 1960...Houston received 4.4" of snow that day....almost similar pattern.

SouthernMet · #4779 Postby **SouthernMet** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:Arctic boundary moved through Lubbock. Went from 62-38.

33 at LIA

downsouthman1 · #4780 Postby **downsouthman1** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:01 pm

northtxboy wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:All I have to say is YOU WANT SNOW YOU GOT SNOW ..

I guess it was around Friday/Saturday time frame, when all the models backed off I was literally about to flip a coin.. Although I never "officially" changed my forecast - its interesting to see where we are now.

I am not even in the WSW ,,,,can you beleave that crap!!!

Dude, I'm not in anything!

Texas Winter 2010-2011

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