Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Well...It looks like everybody can be happy today...sunny but the temperatures came out right about normal due to the cold low temps. In Covington we had 62 - 34 which makes the daily average 2 degrees below normal.

TT...I am glad you like the ecmwf. The 12z run shows two things that I like. One is an upper level low coming down from the NE around day 5 which could give us a shot of cool dry air, which would mean cold low temps in the usual sheltered areas. Number two is that it shows the rex block retrograding for the 8 - 10 period leaving us in a high amp northerly flow. That means cool nights and seasonable days. The GFS also shows the upper level trough from the ENE around day 6 or 7.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/12z ... p_168m.htm

Notice that we are inside of the 540 thickness line with offshore flow. That spells chilly low temps if it's right.

Two other huge question marks are possible low clouds with onshore flow later in the week, and the thunderstorm threat this weekend. Not your typical neat and tidy sunny warm period! In fact the 18z shows 555 heights, with onshore flow and rain for the 4 - 7 day period. This thing is undecided.

[andycottle]

Snow-wizzard....hope you are about us getting some t-storms this weekend here in the lowlands. That would be cool! Though with this still being about 3 days out....thoes t-storms are not set in stone just yet.

Question for ya, Snow wizzard. I know how to figure out daily average temps, but how do you figure out normal daily high/low temps for the day??

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Here at our house we had a high of 65 degrees after a morning low of 36.

That probably averages to normal. But certainly at this time of the year... the morning low does not determine the day. Sunshine and 65 degrees feels warm. So my perception of the day is warm!!

Most people would say this was an awesome day.

Honestly... it could be in the 40's for highs and 20's for lows until Memorial Day and it would not mean anything for next winter. The summer of 1993 had many cool days... it definitely did not bring a snowy winter.

Like I said... April, May, June, and July will probably all be below normal. That does not mean anything for the future but it will help us this year with such a low snowpack.

[andycottle]

66 degrees for high here today. And under blue skies with lots of sunshine! -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Technically Sea-Tac was above normal today by .5 of a degree. Although most places were in the mid-60's... that northerly wind kept Sea-Tac a little cooler with a high of 62 degrees. Even exposed places like Mercer Island got to 65 degrees. Still... it was nice to have an afternoon that is officially 3 degrees above normal.

I originally predicted above normal temperatures would start on Wednesday.

I think most every day for the rest of the month will be above normal. There will be places in the 70's at times and some school sites will flirt with 80 degrees at some point between now and the the end of next week.

That is summer weather!!

Hopfully we get the warmth and some thunderstorms.

[snow_wizzard]

Hey guys, I just had a thought. It just dawned on me that nearly every GFS run is showing a southerly flow developing with offshore over the NE half of the state, by the weekend. What if the southerly flow interacts with dry continental air? The words severe and thunderstorm come to mind! That may be why many of GFS runs have been showing such heavy amonts of rain over the southern 2/3 of western WA.

Just a thought...

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a possibility. It looks very much like a summer pattern developing.

Still... these blocking patterns in April usually break down and return us to cool, wet weather in May. And June. And even July.

The rest of April looks quite warm as I expected.

Not the cold trough you thought was coming!!

[snow_wizzard]

I admit the cold trough is a bust, but some days could still be coolish. Any with rain or low clouds.

I agree with you that May and June will likely be cool. July could be hot though.

[andycottle]

Snow-wizzard....did you see my question I posted earlier to you? -- Andy

[Guest]

TT you crack me up... You are going back and forth with this and are now saying that you have been sitting on warm temps in the 70's to near 80 next week all along... Just a day or two ago you said temps in the mid 60's all week. You are definately watering down what you are saying to make it sound like you are right all along.

And most people's understanding of global warming is that if there is global warming, it is man caused and will continue endlessly... A 200 year cycle that currently has us in a warming phase doesn't mean global warming. Yes the earth might be warming, but if it is due to the cycle than that is a different kind of global warming if you ask me. If we talked about global warming due to cycle every 200 years i dont think it would be the same as the type of global warming people talk about today. What i think of this as is Natural global cycling or something like that...

And also, what makes you sooo sure that if we got all of those months averaging below normal, it wouldn't have any effect on next winter. It seems to me like you are just deciding because that is just what you hope or think. Not a true statement. .. It seems to me you are saying a lot of stuff but aren't really giving any reasoning... Or you change your mind slightly and it makes it seem like you could be for either side of the debate...

[Guest]

Andy I am not sure your question makes total sense... You want to find out what the daily normal is for your place... In order to find the daily normal you have to have a set of data that dates back pretty far, average out the data for that certain day and figure out what the normal temperature average for the day would be. You can't just find out the daily normal without data... Maybe you are thinking of something different or maybe i am straight up thinking about the wrong thing...

[AnthonyC]

I still don't understand why you would want cold temperatures at the end of April. Snow_Wizzard...can't you enjoy a nice/warm day?! You keep dwelling on this wetter/colder pattern...do you realize our wet/cold season is officially over?! IT'S THE END OF APRIL! NOT END OF FEBRUARY!! Give it up!!

And I agree with TT-SEA...many places will be in the 70s this weekend. I still don't think anyone will crack the 80-degree mark, but you never know.

ENJOY THE SUNSHINE...WE LIVE IN SEATTLE...IT WON'T LAST FOREVER!!

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

Anthony...I think the discussion that TT and others of us have been having about global warming sums up why I want below normal temps so badly. There is no question we have been stuck in an above normal rut for years. Quite simply...the more cooler than normal months we have the more it's a sign that we are trending into a cooler regime.

Andy...I am so sorry I forgot to address your question. My normal is sort a hodge podge of all the places I have lived since 1978. We have Redmond, Bothell, Woodinville, and Covington all mixed in there. I am simply averaging all of those years together to get the normal. Once you have ten years worth of records from one place you can compute an "official" normal. I am lucky that all of the places I have lived have very similar weather, so the normal I have figured is pretty close. In general, all of the places I have lived run about two degrees colder than Seattle during the winter and about the same in the summer. One thing I have notcied is that Covington seems to be a bit warmer in the summer than the other places I lived, so my summer normals may not be really accurate for here.

Fortunately, when I move to Palmer I have about 75 years worth of records for there, so I will have my normal for that different climate right away.

[snow_wizzard]

Not too bad! Today was my 13th consecutive day with a below normal daily average. I LOVE IT!!!

I am afraid tomorrow may break the string though.

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... I was saying 60's for this current week.

I said some days in the 70's beyond that (maybe some place will touch 80 degrees). I have been very consistent. Though I did say my confidence was low due to the strange pattern.

Once again... I saw this coming early and as it approaches everyone's predictions get mixed up. I knew the pattern was changing and it has.

I have a group of analog years (best match is 1993) and the most common feature among them is a cooler, wetter summer followed by a warmer, drier winter. That is the basis of my comments. And I would be very surpised if this summer averaged hotter and drier than normal.

I am really confused about your global warming comments. If it is human-caused it will likely continue at a rapid pace. If it is natural it will be slow and steady and probably last for hundreds of years.

Either way... if you love winter weather in Western Washington we are living here about 300 years too late. I bet the winters of the 1600's and 1700's put 1950 to shame!! Western Washington was probably more like Valdez, Alaska back then.

Being alive and living here even 50 years ago would have been more interesting if you love cold, snowy winters. Our wild winter events are losing their intensity and frequency. We are slowly becoming more like San Francisco in terms of winter weather.

We could still get a good winter event. But the chances are slipping away as the Earth goes into this warming cycle.

The temperature maps of the last 15 years are dramatic. Unbelivable really. There are no true cold cycles happening in the Northern Hemisphere. Its all warming up (most noticeable in the winter season).

And that will effect us here. You cannot deny it.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... PLEASE understand that the effects of global warming are much more dramatic in the winter season.

Below normal months from April through September are not nearly as important. Not even close.

The temperature maps from the last 15 years actually show summer temperatures are not that different... some places cooler and some warmer.

And below normal summer weather is followed many times by above normal winter weather.

Why do you worry so much about below normal weather now that winter is over???

You should relax and enjoy warmth for awhile. It might make your wife happy!!

[TT-SEA]

This is direct and to the point...

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO OREGON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...MAINLY CASCADES OR SOUTH PART. MODELS SELDOM HANDLE THESE CUT OFF UPPER LOWS VERY WELL AND CURRENT WAFFLING WITH RUN TO RUN DETAILS NOT SURPRISING. THUS CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS THURSDAY AND BEYOND PRETTY LOW. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE UPPER LOW WINDS UP NO BIG WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. SCHNEIDER

[TT-SEA]

Although... I think Snow_Wizzard may have a better fix on the thunderstorm possibility.

The 00Z GFS looks generally warm for the next two weeks (maybe really warm next week)... but also very wet by the end of the weekend. In this pattern that has to mean thunder.

[invisible]

The high temperature for here was 66 F with a low of 39. It's supposed to be 72-74 F tomorrow. It's pretty warm for April. I have a feeling that southernly moist air that comes from Oregon will come to north to form some thunderstorms for some cascades on Friday. I am confident that most cities will be in 70s by this weekend.

[snow_wizzard]

I think the NWS is missing something. Look at the precip maps for hours 102 and 108! This clearly shows explosive heavy shower development for Saturday night. This could be a classic nocturnal thunderstorm event! I think the intensity climaxes over SW WA due to the interaction of moist southerly flow meeting dry continental air. It certainly looks like everyone south of Everett could get in on the fun. I am amazed that at least 5 of the last six runs have shown the exact same thing!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_102m.htm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_108m.htm

This run shows a lot more shower activity beyond hour 108 also.