Texas Winter 2021-2022

[WacoWx]

I am just hoping the rain is heavy enough that it warms the lower level so there is more time for reinforcing cold air to turn it to sleet quicker. These ZR trends are scary.

[Ntxw]

Pretty strong consensus this morning from all the 12z guidance the northeastern DFW counties are the highest risk of heavy freezing rain early on. This is because of their early onset of freezing along with heavy rain moving in this evening.

850mb begins cooling on HRRR around 2-3am right as 2nd heavy band moves through....hopefully just really heavy sleet/snow (Thundersleet ??) by then but if that warm nose doesn't erode quick enough, lookout some will double their FRZ RN totals with that 2nd band!!

I think the 2nd band will be more sleet for most changing to snow. It's the 1st band that's becoming a problem which further out was looking like plain rain.

[Ralph's Weather]

My company is deploying 500+ people for utility damage assessment. Most being deployed to either DFW or Tulsa.

[EnnisTx]

My company is deploying 500+ people for utility damage assessment. Most being deployed to either DFW or Tulsa.

Here's hoping they have nothing to do. Maybe they can watch Dexter and eat Cheetos in a nice warm hotel room.

[Iceresistance]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

[bubba hotep]

In the very short range temps are cooling about 2f faster per hour across DFW than the HRRR (comparing 16z 00hr to 15z 01hr).

[losf1981]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

I dont' believe this to be accurate in the city proper. Maybe in Wichita County somewhere. Been hovering around 32 since about 9am.

[Haris]

In the very short range temps are cooling about 2f faster per hour across DFW than the HRRR (comparing 16z 00hr to 15z 01hr).

RAP getting slower and slower. Lingers snow in DAL until 1-2pm

[TropicalTundra]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

Look at the radar. Snow's starting to fill in around there. Looks like Graham, TX and Abilene are already starting a transition to FRZ Rain. Folks need to get ready to be stuck for a while wherever they are.

[EnnisTx]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

I dont' believe this to be accurate in the city proper. Maybe in Wichita County somewhere. Been hovering around 32 since about 9am.

Current conditions at
Wichita Falls, Sheppard Air Force Base (KSPS)
Lat: 33.98°NLon: 98.49°WElev: 1014ft.

Light Snow and Breezy

30°F

-1°C

Humidity 79%
Wind Speed N 25 mph
Barometer 30.09 in (1019.4 mb)
Dewpoint 24°F (-4°C)
Visibility 9.00 mi
Wind Chill 16°F (-9°C)
Last update 2 Feb 10:52 am CST

[cheezyWXguy]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

I dont' believe this to be accurate in the city proper. Maybe in Wichita County somewhere. Been hovering around 32 since about 9am.

If that area really is seeing snow, I believe that’s a good sign for faster cooling of temps aloft. They weren’t supposed to be seeing snow yet, right?

[Ralph's Weather]

My company is deploying 500+ people for utility damage assessment. Most being deployed to either DFW or Tulsa.

Here's hoping they have nothing to do. Maybe they can watch Dexter and eat Cheetos in a nice warm hotel room.

I hope that is the case.

[snowballzzz]

36° and steady drizzle right now in Weatherford. Temps steadily dropping. I expect to be below freezing by earthly afternoon.

[Iceresistance]

Snow has been reported in Wichita Falls, TX

I dont' believe this to be accurate in the city proper. Maybe in Wichita County somewhere. Been hovering around 32 since about 9am.

If that area really is seeing snow, I believe that’s a good sign for faster cooling of temps aloft. They weren’t supposed to be seeing snow yet, right?

The snow Line is south of Lawton for sure now, & it appears that the Freezing Line is now at Ardmore, OK

[jasons2k]

Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded southward to include all counties along and northwest of the US 59 corridor including the metro Houston area

High resolution models continue to trend slower with the ending of the precipitation across SE TX late Thursday night into Friday morning. At the same time the surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday afternoon and evening toward the US 59 corridor and then toward the coast early Friday morning. There will likely be a period of a few hours on Thursday evening into Friday morning where light precipitation will be falling into a freezing/sub freezing air mass at the surface and some light ice accumulation on elevated surfaces will be possible (trees, power lines, bridges/overpasses, vehicles). Surface roadways and streets will remain too warm for any ice accumulation, but bridges/overpasses, connector ramps, flyovers, may develop some patchy ice.

Note: while freezing rain and ice will be possible during the day Thursday NW of metro Houston (Columbus, Brenham, Huntsville), the threat for freezing rain and any ice accumulation across Fort Bend, Harris, southern Waller, southern Montgomery Counties will be after 4-5pm on Thursday and most likely in the mid to late evening hours as the surface temperatures cool to and below freezing.

Temperatures will likely remain below freezing on Friday morning until 900-1000am for areas along and south of the US 59 corridor so any ice that does accumulate will be slow to melt until mid to late morning.

Preparations:
Use the remaining warm weather this afternoon to complete any needed preparation actions

This will not be a repeat of the February 2021 winter storm, but protective measures should be taken to help mitigate any potential freeze damage.

Plants: tropical and sensitive vegetation will need to be protected from the cold as temperatures will be at levels and for long enough durations to cause damage.

Pipes: Any exposed outside pipes need to be protected and sprinkler systems shut off and pipes drained. Pipes at water wells and livestock ponds need to be protected. Inside wall pipes on most houses will be fine with the current forecast

Pets: pets and livestock should be secured in proper shelter. Water supplies may freeze over.

People: make sure heaters are in proper working order. Do not use grills or stoves to heat houses and make sure space heaters have proper clearance.

Jeff Lindner

[orangeblood]

In the very short range temps are cooling about 2f faster per hour across DFW than the HRRR (comparing 16z 00hr to 15z 01hr).

HRRR is catching up but, like you mentioned, about 1-2 hr slow with FRZ LINE which will have major implications

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded southward to include all counties along and northwest of the US 59 corridor including the metro Houston area

High resolution models continue to trend slower with the ending of the precipitation across SE TX late Thursday night into Friday morning. At the same time the surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday afternoon and evening toward the US 59 corridor and then toward the coast early Friday morning. There will likely be a period of a few hours on Thursday evening into Friday morning where light precipitation will be falling into a freezing/sub freezing air mass at the surface and some light ice accumulation on elevated surfaces will be possible (trees, power lines, bridges/overpasses, vehicles). Surface roadways and streets will remain too warm for any ice accumulation, but bridges/overpasses, connector ramps, flyovers, may develop some patchy ice.

Note: while freezing rain and ice will be possible during the day Thursday NW of metro Houston (Columbus, Brenham, Huntsville), the threat for freezing rain and any ice accumulation across Fort Bend, Harris, southern Waller, southern Montgomery Counties will be after 4-5pm on Thursday and most likely in the mid to late evening hours as the surface temperatures cool to and below freezing.

Temperatures will likely remain below freezing on Friday morning until 900-1000am for areas along and south of the US 59 corridor so any ice that does accumulate will be slow to melt until mid to late morning.

Preparations:
Use the remaining warm weather this afternoon to complete any needed preparation actions

This will not be a repeat of the February 2021 winter storm, but protective measures should be taken to help mitigate any potential freeze damage.

Plants: tropical and sensitive vegetation will need to be protected from the cold as temperatures will be at levels and for long enough durations to cause damage.

Pipes: Any exposed outside pipes need to be protected and sprinkler systems shut off and pipes drained. Pipes at water wells and livestock ponds need to be protected. Inside wall pipes on most houses will be fine with the current forecast

Pets: pets and livestock should be secured in proper shelter. Water supplies may freeze over.

People: make sure heaters are in proper working order. Do not use grills or stoves to heat houses and make sure space heaters have proper clearance.

Jeff Lindner

HGX being smart.

I’m headed to Colorado County to empty the troughs for the cows so there floats don’t crack. Empty the water in the house and see if I get a little more Winter Weather than MoCo. Feels like it will be heavier out there.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Wed Feb 02 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas...and western North Texas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 021715Z - 022115Z

SUMMARY...Sleet and freezing rain will become more likely this
afternoon. A gradual transition to snow will occur from northwest to
southeast. Precipitation will be slow to progress east, allowing
these conditions to persist into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...An area of precipitation developed early this morning
across portions of the Hill Country. Dry mid-level air was observed
on the 12Z MAF and FWD soundings. Current surface observations show
that this dry layer is in the process of becoming saturated.
Continued approach of the mid-level trough in the Southwest will aid
in precipitation becoming more widespread later today. Along with
modest cold air advection at the surface, areas experiencing heavier
precipitation will have potential to evaporatively cool to at or
below freezing. Forecast soundings suggest that the depth of the
near-surface cold air will be sufficient to produce sleet. Freezing
rain becomes more probable along the southeastern fringes of the
precipitation, however. Snow is more likely to occur to the
northwest as the warm 850-700 mb warm layer will be quicker to erode
there.

..Wendt.. 02/02/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31630135 31750188 32120209 32470167 33360079 34149929
34249810 33859772 33289787 32389915 31750046 31600102
31630135

[Yukon Cornelius]

Light freezing rain and sleet just started a little E of WF. 30F

[orangeblood]

Check out the 12Z GFS lows for Saturday Morning Is Back to Back years of below 0 really on the table ??