Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx iam very concerned we are gonna see something widespread as far as damage path from ice, it does seem to be slowing quite a bit...

Almost every sort of weather is occurring from this storm. We all will remember it for a while I'm sure...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
105 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

...VALID 18Z THU JAN 28 2010 - 00Z SAT JAN 30 2010...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SE ACT AUS JCT ABI 45 S F05 NFW 25 SE ACT.


...CNTRL TX...
MIDLVL VORTEX OVR SERN AZ THIS AFTN WL CONT TO PUSH EWD WITH
MID/UPR LVL HGT FALLS GRADUALLY PUSHG EWD AND ALLOWG FOR
CONSISTENT EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MCS THAT IS DVLPG OVR THE REGION.
MDLS CONT TO SHOW VRY IMPRVS UPR JET SUPPORT WITH UPR JET COUPLING
THAT WL SUPPORT STG UPR DVRG AND ASSOCD DEEP LYRD ASCENT. LOLVL
FLOW CONTS TO INCRS OFF THE GULF OF MEX INTO TX WITH VRY STG MSTR
FLUX/TRNSPRT INTO THE REGION. LATEST SATL DERIVED PW AND GPS PW
DATA SHOWS VALUES ARND ONE INCH TO THE RED RVR...WITH ARND 1.30
INCHES OVR XTRM SRN TX. THESE ARE ARND TWO STDS ABV NRML. 8H MSTR
FLUX ANOMALIES REMAIN 3-5 STDS ABV NRML INTO LATER TNGT. SATL
CONTS TO SHOW A CONNECTION TO THE EPAC AND CARIBBEAN. CNVCTN CONTS
TO EVOLVE INTO A LRG MCS THAT WL TRACK GNRLY EWD...BUT LKLY BUILD
SWD INTO THE MOIST MORE UNSTBL AIR AXIS/MSTR FLUX AXIS LATER THIS
EVE/TNGT. LATEST EXPERIMENTAL DENSITY PLOTS OF 4KM WRF RNFL RATES
COMBINED WITH CURRENT FFG SHOWS INCRSD THREAT THRU CNTRL TX WITH
PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT TO EXCEED THE ONE AND THREE
HR FFG. XPCT 1-2 INCH PER HR RNFL RATES WITH ISOLD HVIER TOTALS
THRU TNGT.

ECKERT

[msstateguy83]

large tree limbs down in several areas of lawton showing on kswo tv out of lawton rightnow.. fletcher somewhere near lawton report the whole town w/o power.. hobart has no power..

[Portastorm]

Oh, I see my role in this storm now ... I'm the guy posting about flash floods!

I'd rather be the guy posting on how it is sleeting/snowing heavily in my area but I guess that will have to wait for later in February.

[Peanut432]

Heavy sleet for the last hour and more to come. .50 ice on trees and lights flickering as I type.

[katheria]

Heavy sleet for the last hour and more to come. .50 ice on trees and lights flickering as I type.

go outside and take a big breath, and blow as hard as you can towards dallas hehe

be safe up there!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Oh, I see my role in this storm now ... I'm the guy posting about flash floods!

I'd rather be the guy posting on how it is sleeting/snowing heavily in my area but I guess that will have to wait for later in February.

Remember the old saying Portastorm. All good things come to those that wait... I'll be posting about severe weather.

[gboudx]

Oh, I see my role in this storm now ... I'm the guy posting about flash floods!

I'd rather be the guy posting on how it is sleeting/snowing heavily in my area but I guess that will have to wait for later in February.

Our roles probably aren't that much different. I'm still trying to figure out how to make a waterman.

[cycloneye]

I posted this regional radar at the Southern Plains thread but the south part of this storm is at Texas with rain at Central Texas with snow and ice at the NW part of the state.

[msstateguy83]

might w.falls get dry slotted or am i wishing?? just looks on radar by the upper level circulation there but i can wish lol i know more is likely to come later tonight to..

edit: nevermind last frame of regional radar i noticed a back building to the south of the frzing rain stuff so likely not good for my neck of the woods yeehaw lol

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-OKZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/28/10 1846Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1815Z DS
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL/SW TEXAS...S CENTRAL/SE OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...RESTRENGTHENING MCS...TRAINING CELLS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CLOUDS TOPS HAVE SHOWN A COOLING TREND
SINCE 1730Z IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCS OVER CENTRAL-SW TX PRODUCING
LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY SLOT WEDGING ITS WAY NEWD
ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WITH COMBINATION OF WV AND EXPRMTL MESOSCALE
WIND PRODUCTS DEPICTING AN UPPER LVL SPEED MAX JUST SW OF W TX WITH ITS
LEFT EXIT REGION JUST TO THE NW OF KDRT, TX. GOES SOUNDER LI/CAPE/CINH
PRODUCTS HAVE SHOWN RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THIS AREA AND WITH PW VALUES
OF 1.1-1.2" STILL OVER SW TX WITH APPROX 35KTS SERLY 85H FLOW FEEDING
MOISTURE NNWWD..HVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME A PROBLEM.
.
VERY STRONG SFC MOISTURE CNVG IS PRESENT FROM BETWEEN 6R6 AND DRT NEWD TO
E OF ABI. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF CU/STORMS BEGINNING TO DVLP SW
OF SCHLEICHER COUNTY WHERE THE SW END OF THE ALREADY DVLPD CONVECTIVE LINE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. TRAINING CELLS IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR AS NEW CNVTN
GROWS AND PROGRESSES NEWD FOLLOWING ALONG APPROX THE SAME TRACK AS THE
CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1-1.5"/HR ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING ALREADY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN CURRENT CNVTN AND WHERE
ANY TRAINING CELLS SET UP AS NEW CNVTN FEEDS IN..RATES UP TO 2"/HR WILL
BE PROBABLE. THIS HVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL FOLLOW NEWD BECOMING MORE
MOD IN INTENSITY AS IT CROSS A STNRY BNDRY NR EXTREME N TX/OK AND PUSHES
IN A COLDER AIR MASS. PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS SHORTLY FOR GRAPHIC ANALYSIS.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

[katheria]

severe weather has poked its head out

tornado warning in eastland county TX

where else but in texas can you have ice/sleet/snow and tornadoes at the same time..

[Weatherdude20]

Ice storm to my Northwest, Tornado to my southwest????????

Tornado Warning Eastland county.

[rainman31]

Temps dropping slowly, now 46.2 here in south Denton.

[wxman57]

Here's a 19Z surface analysis I made. You can see that the front made it about to Weatherford (west of Ft. Worth) but it's stalled. With the surface low moving eastward, temps in the D-FW area won't change much until it moves east of the area tomorrow morning. And the precip will shut down after the low passes tomorrow morning.

Still 33F in Wichita Falls. Looking to the north of Wichita Falls there isn't much of a temperature drop. So the temps in the area won't really fall until the low passes tonight. The precip will gradually end after the low passes, so it's still possible that you won't see damaging ice accumulations there. Problem is, temps above the standard measurement height (2 meters) can be colder - like on power lines and in trees. So freezing rain can occur on such elevated surfaces with the 2m temp as high as 35-36 degrees.

[aerology]

Ice storm to my Northwest, Tornado to my southwest????????

Tornado Warning Eastland county.

Surprise, surprise, surprise!
some tonight, lots more tomorrow, finish up on Saturday.....or Sunday?

[Portastorm]

Ice storm to my Northwest, Tornado to my southwest????????

Tornado Warning Eastland county.

Surprise, surprise, surprise!
some tonight, lots more tomorrow, finish up on Saturday.....or Sunday?

Something tells me you're going to say this is because the moon is doing something to affect our weather.

[natlib]

Weird weather in San Angelo. Had around 2 inches of rain before noon. Skies are now sunny and temp is still 54 degrees although its 37 degrees in Sweetwater which is 90 miles to the north.

[wxman57]

Weird weather in San Angelo. Had around 2 inches of rain before noon. Skies are now sunny and temp is still 54 degrees although its 37 degrees in Sweetwater which is 90 miles to the north.

According to my analysis (above), the front is right on your doorstep now. You're in a hole in the clouds, but it looks like the heavy precip is east of you now.

[southerngale]

Oh, I see my role in this storm now ... I'm the guy posting about flash floods!

I'd rather be the guy posting on how it is sleeting/snowing heavily in my area but I guess that will have to wait for later in February.

Our roles probably aren't that much different. I'm still trying to figure out how to make a waterman.

I've been trying for years to perfect humidityman... good luck!

[rainman31]

Temps at the Denton airport have gone up 2 degrees since about an hour ago.

http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Denton ... &stat=KDTO