Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

Ehh Porta. I am just not ready to ride the train sir. It is sleek. It is fast. It is not on the tracks..yet...

[TheProfessor]

Hmm the 6z GFS has North Texas getting 3-7 inches of sleet through Monday, I couldn't imagine how much snow that would be if it were snow. Anyway, hopefully some more models will catch on to this, we are getting pretty close to the event or possible lack thereof.

[wxman57]

Here are some 6Z GFS meteograms. No more single digits for the D-FW area or mid teens for Houston (no big surprise there). Doesn't look very warm next week. Interesting precip event for NE TX on Monday? I hope that you get your snow there next week so we can forget all this talk of winter and start a spring discussion of 80+ temps.

[Tireman4]

Here are some 6Z GFS meteograms. No more single digits for the D-FW area or mid teens for Houston (no big surprise there). Doesn't look very warm next week. Interesting precip event for NE TX on Monday? I hope that you get your snow there next week so we can forget all this talk of winter and start a spring discussion of 80+ temps.

Here is the thing. If it were 85, with a NE breeze and dry, we are talking. Heck, I will take 90 with a NE breeze and dry. The humidity makes it unbearable. Yeah, I know. You don't like it Tireman, then move fella. Sigh.

[wxman57]

Here are some 6Z GFS meteograms. No more single digits for the D-FW area or mid teens for Houston (no big surprise there). Doesn't look very warm next week. Interesting precip event for NE TX on Monday? I hope that you get your snow there next week so we can forget all this talk of winter and start a spring discussion of 80+ temps.

Here is the thing. If it were 85, with a NE breeze and dry, we are talking. Heck, I will take 90 with a NE breeze and dry. The humidity makes it unbearable. Yeah, I know. You don't like it Tireman, then move fella. Sigh.

I don't care if it's humid or not. I'll give you 85-90 and dry any day over 40s and rain. However, I see nothing in the long range that indicates temperatures of 80F or more here in SE TX.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

...UNTIL A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS TO FALL
DURG THE DAYTIME SUNDAY AS THIS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR WORKS ITS WAY INTO AREA. ANY PRECIP THAT CONTINUES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRZG...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT ALL IN LINE WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS FRZG AIR. WITH SKIES FINALLY CLEARING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT TO BE FOLLOWED BY MORE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE QUESTIONABLE PRECIP TYPE LATE WEEK TOWARDS END OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

[weatherdude1108]

This was an article on our news clips at work today. Looks like our Highland Lakes are making history in uncharted territory, and not in a good way.
El Nino was supposed to be our saving grace. I won't buy into false promises anymore.



LCRA: Current drought worst on record for Central Texas
by kxandavidbarer

The ongoing drought impacting Central Texas' Highland Lakes is the worst the region has experienced since the lakes were built in the 1930s,…

http://kxan.com/2015/02/18/lcra-current ... ral-texas/

[Yukon Cornelius]

From the local NWS..
COOL...BUT DRY...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AND
MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF REINFORCEMENTS BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE LAST
IN FEBRUARY. JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER-WEATHER EVENT. WHILE
THIS IS BEYOND THE NORMAL RANGE OF MODEL CREDIBILITY...THE
SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IS INTERESTING.

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS is very cold and unsettled for northern Texas next week. It shows what would come out to a general 1-3 inches of sleet along the entirety of I-20 in Texas on Monday. On Thursday it shows .5" of liquid on average across North and Northeast Texas with varying precip types. Then by early March it looks more springlike with a progressive stormy pattern across the US. Not sure we go to spring quite yet though, but we will see after we get past this upcoming week of pure winter.

[dhweather]

There is no way I would do this to you for the 60th straight time.

[TheProfessor]

Or maybe Lucy will make us think she is going to Lucy us only to not Lucy us which would be the Ultimate Lucy.

[gboudx]

You need this one dh. It's more to the point.

[Tireman4]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/e/e9/Lucy_van_Pelt.png/220px-Lucy_van_Pelt.png

There is no way I would do this to you for the 60th straight time.

and now...this Winter is over. The Ice Goddess has appeared once again...Sigh...

[Ntxw]

Its Feb 19th, the time frame wxman57 and bastardi pinpointed for regime change. The cold and fronts this past week was bonus that the models caught on close range. Lets see if their calls some days ago holds!

[wxman57]

They've just pulled the handle on the 12Z GFS run. Let's see if it comes up 3 snowflakes or 3 cold raindrops for the D-FW area this time.

The tumblers are still spinning...

[Tejas89]

DFW local mets are talking up Monday's potential quite a bit this morning.

<Lucy cracks her knuckles>

[CYCLONE MIKE]

As much as people have been talking cold and snow the last few months I can't believe more aren't talking about the potential ice storm early next week for tx and La, and ark. I'm sure it wont pan oiut as shown by models, especially the gfs, but its only a few days out for once. What doesn't make since to me though is the cold high pressure steadily drops south into Missouri then just stops and move due east. Hence the cold air and frozen precip does the same for tx and LA. Its like it runs into a brick wall and never moves any more south and east. But of course there were freeze and hard freeze warnings posted for parts of the area around here last night and nobody got close. So maybe it will get it right this time

[wxman57]

As much as people have been talking cold and snow the last few months I can't believe more aren't talking about the potential ice storm early next week for tx and La, and ark. I'm sure it wont pan oiut as shown by models, especially the gfs, but its only a few days out for once. What doesn't make since to me though is the cold high pressure steadily drops south into Missouri then just stops and move due east. Hence the cold air and frozen precip does the same for tx and LA. Its like it runs into a brick wall and never moves any more south and east. But of course there were freeze and hard freeze warnings posted for parts of the area around here last night and nobody got close. So maybe it will get it right this time

The airmass is looking a little colder this time for NE TX. Not a lot colder, but maybe enough colder such that any sleet/snow that falls may fall into sub-freezing surface air for at least a few hours. I don't expect anything but cold rain for Louisiana south of Alexandria. Maybe with some sleet pellets mixed in.

[Portastorm]

Wxman57 can paint it any way he wants, but the 12z GFS clearly shows a winter storm for parts of central and north Texas early next week.

[wxman57]

See my post above yours, Portastorm. I'm agreeing that the airmass may be cold enough next week for snow in NE TX. GFS snow map is in through 102hrs at Tropical Tidbits. I wouldn't take the amounts it predicts literally, though.