Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

Surprised there are no comments on the latest ECMWF? Looks like an interesting storm system here...

Definitely still interesting....the cut-off scenario as the Arctic Front moves south is still on the table, should start honing in on a solution over the weekend

[Ntxw]

We like to play caution with cutoff low scenarios. The errors for them can be hundreds if not a thousand miles run to run. Some runs favor the leading wave, some favor the trailing wave. Kind of in a sit and wait mode until within 3-5 days.

Of late also, when we're talking about a late week system, big changes have been had during the prior weekend on the models

[orangeblood]

We like to play caution with cutoff low scenarios. The errors for them can be hundreds if not a thousand miles run to run. Some runs favor the leading wave, some favor the trailing wave. Kind of in a sit and wait mode until within 3-5 days.

Of late also, when we're talking about a late week system, big changes have been had during the prior weekend on the models

Yep, caution and patience is required for this setup...although, majority of the ensemble members are favoring the lead wave so chances aren't looking that great at this point (for a Texas Winter Storm)

[Ntxw]

Latest runs from the GFS (sampled past 5) is to dig further west the lagging energy/vorticity. If we can separate the leading and trailing areas more, we'll have a better shot at creating precip ahead of it across the state as lift approaches with front and go neutral/neg tilt with gulf low development. Few days ago GFS was slopping with energy everywhere but now it's more organized.



The GFS has quietly been pushing precip more and more into the eastern half of the state ahead of it (before mostly in Louisiana). Better ejection of the trailing wave and it can throw moisture back

Of course..Austin will get snow, the newly minted snow capital of Texas

[orangeblood]

strike zone is approaching and models are trending to hang more energy back, good sign!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: strike zone is approaching and models are trending to hang more energy back, good sign!

Yep. When you have energy kicking out of El Paso/Big Bend area, someone in the state usually gets a winter storm along with HP driving cold air up north. With carving trough in the SW and SC US, air is flowing straight southward from Western Canada. You have air diving down from the North Pole, with some origins via eastern Siberia.

[orangeblood]

Yeah, lead wave carves the path allowing for very little resistance to the Arctic HP to spill into the state. Also, forces more of the Arctic air due south instead of off to the east like the past month. Can also force more energy to hang back as well

Those kind of anomalies in Western Canada should get our local pro mets attention over the next few days

[Ntxw]

I have an inkling this may be colder than it's been looking on guidance. As I said in a post before, a sub-freezing high again at DFW in such a set up is frequent in the past. Just remember what the models did before Christmas-New Year's...Euro hardly had a freeze medium range. GFS went gangbusters long range but too warm the hours leading to it not grasping origins of air.

[Ntxw]

Those kind of anomalies in Western Canada should get our local pro mets attention over the next few days

Even more impressive than the anomalies pre-new year's. For W-Canada.

Now that doesn't mean it's going to get that magnitude or duration of cold but a sharp, quick hit is certainly on the table.

[orangeblood]

Those kind of anomalies in Western Canada should get our local pro mets attention over the next few days

Even more impressive than the anomalies pre-new year's. For W-Canada.

Now that doesn't mean it's going to get that magnitude or duration of cold but a sharp, quick hit is certainly on the table.

Yep, quick-hitter is more than likely but some ensemble members cut this Arctic HP off from main jet, leaving it parked across the state for several days...interesting potential that's for sure

FTW NWS has highs Friday around 50 - over/under on 20 deg temp bust ?

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile so far 63F at DFW this current hour. Sweating profusely!

Enjoy while you can through Wednesday.

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS shifts the winter wx zone NW of the Op run. However, the GEFS has been horrible when it comes to winter wx predictions.

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS shifts the winter wx zone NW of the Op run. However, the GEFS has been horrible when it comes to winter wx predictions.

Some heavy hitting members on this run...best potential we've had in quite awhile for a decent storm, hopefully the trend continues

[Theepicman116]

I'm happy for y'all in south texas on this recent GFS run, but we here in north texas would like snow too! So I'm not that happy with the current GFS run.

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS shifts the winter wx zone NW of the Op run. However, the GEFS has been horrible when it comes to winter wx predictions.

Some heavy hitting members on this run...best potential we've had in quite awhile for a decent storm, hopefully the trend continues

What’s different this time around??

[Brent]

18z GEFS shifts the winter wx zone NW of the Op run. However, the GEFS has been horrible when it comes to winter wx predictions.

Some heavy hitting members on this run...best potential we've had in quite awhile for a decent storm, hopefully the trend continues

What’s different this time around??

Probably because I'm going to Chicago next week where it may rain instead of snow

Seriously

[Ntxw]

18z GEFS shifts the winter wx zone NW of the Op run. However, the GEFS has been horrible when it comes to winter wx predictions.

Some heavy hitting members on this run...best potential we've had in quite awhile for a decent storm, hopefully the trend continues

What’s different this time around??

Well besides Brent leaving, we could have a real southwest trough. Magnet pathway for cold and overrunning

[Ntxw]

From the MJO guru Mike Ventrice. More -EPO

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/949394417718366209

[TheProfessor]

Some heavy hitting members on this run...best potential we've had in quite awhile for a decent storm, hopefully the trend continues

What’s different this time around??

Probably because I'm going to Chicago next week where it may rain instead of snow

Seriously

You definitely might want to keep an eye out for the end of the next week, the initial storm is looking to be rain(though perhaps there could be front end ice) the models have been hinting at a potential secondary low and though they've been showing it as an apps runner(which is what I want) it could definitely end up further west and lead to snow in Chicago.

[Brent]

What’s different this time around??

Probably because I'm going to Chicago next week where it may rain instead of snow

Seriously

You definitely might want to keep an eye out for the end of the next week, the initial storm is looking to be rain(though perhaps there could be front end ice) the models have been hinting at a potential secondary low and though they've been showing it as an apps runner(which is what I want) it could definitely end up further west and lead to snow in Chicago.

I havent given up but its annoying because 10 days out the lead storm was a snowstorm then the models lost it with the more northern track(sounds like here doesnt it?)