Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/radar?radar ... pe=ani&c=y

What more can i say... check this out speacks for itself...

[wxman57]

Oh, I see my role in this storm now ... I'm the guy posting about flash floods!

I'd rather be the guy posting on how it is sleeting/snowing heavily in my area but I guess that will have to wait for later in February.

So you won't feel left out, I made you a personal meteogram. Enjoy the cold rain. Maybe you can make a cold waterman?

[Portastorm]

I am truly honored, Wxman57!

Actually, I may be working on Flash Flood Man later this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Heck of a bow echo near Brownwood. Now convection firing W of Sonora in W TX. Going to be a long night.

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like I40 is shutdown up in the Panhandle.

http://amaits.dot.state.tx.us/AMA-ITS/default.htm

Click on the little yello road signs along I40.

[HockeyTx82]

God Bless Texas!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

TxDOT confirms I-40 west of Amarillo is shut down.

[Ntxw]

I know we are all dealing with the current storm and everyone on both sides of it should stay safe. Something to put in the back of your mind as there's been hints and the GFS had energy not too far out, about a week or so. It would be the third in a series between now and then with today's storm being the first. It will probably change a million times before then, just something to think about.

[rhoby13]

I was just about to post the same thing. This will be interesting to keep an eye on since it looks like most of us in Central Texas/Hill Country are going to miss out on today's storm

[jasons2k]

Here is IAH - Sun AM min came up slightly from 31 on the last run to 32:

EDITED: Fixed time in header & begin time

[srainhoutx]

I know we are all dealing with the current storm and everyone on both sides of it should stay safe. Something to put in the back of your mind as there's been hints and the GFS had energy not too far out, about a week or so. It would be the third in a series between now and then with today's storm being the first. It will probably change a million times before then, just something to think about.

The OP's are just catching up to what looks like a major pattern change. More later after we deal will the current storm. Portastorm and I as well as some others folks have been chatting about this for a long time...

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107373&start=40

[msstateguy83]

very very much agree guys feb is gonna be one heck of a month

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF Disco has updated...what a mess...

...SRN ROCKIES INTO TN VLY/CNTRL GULF STS...
MDLS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE MIDLVL SYS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY 1 PD...THEN DIFFS DEVELOP AS THE MIDLVL CLOSED LOW OPENS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SHRTWV ENERGY DIVG SWD THRU THE NRN PLNS.
THE MIDLVL SYS IS ALSO SHOWN TO BEGIN TO BREAKING UP INTO SVRL
SMALLER SHRTWVS. SOME GUID HAS SHIFTED PCPN NWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS...BUT NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCEARNIO. MAINLY DUE TO
CNVCTV FEEDBACK IN SOME OF THE GUID...MCS ACTVTY DVLPG OVR CNTRL
TX THAT IS FCST TO PUSH ESEWD AND WL INTERRUPT THE MOIST
INFLOW/MSTR FLUX AHD OF THE SYNOPTIC SYS AND FINALLY THE VRY DRY
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS PLUNGING SWD AND PREVENTING PCPN FM REACHG THE
SFC OVR A BROAD AREA THIS AFTN. MID/UPR DYNAMICS WL REMAIN VRY STG
WITH UPR JET COUPLG PROVIDG DEEP LYRD ASCENT ACRS THE REGION AND A
WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF MOD/HVY PCPN WITH SGNFCNT ICING/SNOW ACCUMS
IN SOME AREAS. SEE QPFHSD FOR SNOW/ICE ACCUMS. MSTR FEEDG INTO THE
SYS IS WELL ABV SEASONAL LVLS WITH A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.25
INCHES THRU TX INTO SRN OK. THE STG LOLVL INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MSTR WL ALSO SUPPORT VRY STG MSTR FLUX INTO TX...THRU
TNGT...THEN AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THE MSTR FLUX SHLD ALSO BACK
OFF. LATEST SREF MEAN PW ANOMALIES ARE ARND TWO STDS ABV
NRML...WHILE THE 8H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES ARE 3-5 STDS ABV NRML. THE
MCS DVLPG OVR TX SHLD TEND TO FEED ON THIS AREA OF MSTR FLUX/PWS
AND A NARROW RIBBON OF SFC BASED INSTBLTY THRU SRN TX. PROPAGATION
VECTORS SHOW STG SUPPORT FOR THE MCS TO DRIVE ESEWD TNGT TWD
ERN/SERN TX BY FRI MRNG THEN TO THE LWR MS VLY BY THE END OF THE
PD. MDLS DO SHOW A 8H/7H BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ALNG THE KS/OK
BORDER EWD TO TN WHICH SHLD HELP FOCUS A SCNDRY RIBBON OF MOD TO
PSBLY HVY PCPN THRU THIS REGION. LATER ON FRI...GUID DOES SHOW THE
MAIN VORT LIFTG NEWD THRU ARK TWD TN WITH AN 8H/7H LOW TRACKG ALNG
THE 8H/7H BNDRY WITH STG CVRG DVLPG. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED A
SCND AREA OF HVY PCPN ON FRI AFTN OVR SERN ARK/WRN MS INTO SWRN
TN.

[srainhoutx]

Folks in the Metroplex need to keep an eye to your W with a strong bow echo heading your way. Wind damage reports coming in W of Stephenville.

[DentonGal]

Folks in the Metroplex need to keep an eye to your W with a strong bow echo heading your way. Wind damage reports coming in W of Stephenville.

Thanks. I just noticed that bow on the radar. It doesn't look pretty!

[WeatherKing]

great a bow echo bearing down right around rush hour, the winds in that look intense

[gboudx]

Yeah. Severe T-Storm Watch up for most of the Metroplex counties. Except Denton/Collin.

[DentonGal]

Check out the lightening associated with that bow!

http://weather.weatherbug.com/TX/Denton ... map_id=272

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 282043Z - 282215Z

A SHORT-TERM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
AREA...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY
SPREADS EAST OF THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MID-LEVEL FORCING SUPPORTING ONGOING
VIGOROUS STORM CLUSTER WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z... WEAKENING
AS IT DOES. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE APPEARS FOCUSED JUST
SOUTH OF STALLED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...WHERE MID 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS COULD BE CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WEAK SURFACE OR NEAR
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH
ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 21-22Z...WITH
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM NEAR A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS.
HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CONVECTION IS ADVANCING EASTWARD
FASTER THAN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN.
SO...IT SEEMS THAT ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SYSTEM
RELATIVE INFLOW EMANATES FROM INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR EAST OF DALLAS
AFTER 22Z.

..KERR.. 01/28/2010


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

[wxman57]

Here is IAH - Sun AM min came up slightly from 31 on the last run to 32:

EDITED: Fixed time in header

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/5708/iahpngn.png

jasons,

You missed a step in my instructions. Note that the first time at the bottom of your graphic is 12AM vs. 6AM. In cell B2 on the data tab, change "1/28/2010 12:00:00 AM" to "1/28/2010 6:00:00 AM"

See step #17:

17. To make the date/time groups at the bottom of the graphic apply to the CURRENT model run that you just pasted in there, click the "Data" tab at the bottom of your Excel document. Click the very top date/time group (cell B2) and edit it for the appropriate date and time. I have it set to Central Standard Time.