Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

From the MJO guru Mike Ventrice. More -EPO

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/9 ... 7718366209

Yea, I think we have been talking about this upcoming warm up not being long lived. The signs are already showing up in the longer range of lower heights returning to Okhotsk. I think late Jan & early Feb could be a repeat of this recent cold but even colder for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

The potential winter storm system is now cutoff in SoCal on the 00z GFS at 96H.

[South Texas Storms]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

[Brent]

East of TX before anything frozen

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi — CFSV2 and Euro agree on a nasty Feb in the wake of the Thaw. Big fights lots of cold, lots of precip Reminds me of 2011

[bubba hotep]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

You just weren't patient enough lol

[South Texas Storms]

Yep just had to wait for the last panel of the run 16 days out

[Ntxw]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

Still there at 500mb but dry run at the surface and tilted positive.

[Brent]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

You just weren't patient enough lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_52.png

ah the old 384 hour storm...

[hamburgerman7070]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

Still there at 500mb but dry run at the surface and tilted positive.

Ntxw, looks like we can write this one off, esp since energy apparently will get cut off. Gfs is getting in it's zone where it won't change much now. Maybe end of Jan into Feb could offer up our chance. I'm in Arkansas and haven't see a flurry

[gpsnowman]

Well it looks like a 70 is popping up the day before the next strong front next week. I love the cold but a 70 is going to feel nice for one day. After looking at several pro mets twitter posts and catching up on all the posts on this forum, winter should make a return in a few weeks. All is good, February can certainly bring the goods. Besides, snow in February is usually fluffier and prettier to look at than a drier storm with smaller flakes. We shall see. Winter is far from over.

[Ntxw]

Well it looks like a 70 is popping up the day before the next strong front next week. I love the cold but a 70 is going to feel nice for one day. After looking at several pro mets twitter posts and catching up on all the posts on this forum, winter should make a return in a few weeks. All is good, February can certainly bring the goods. Besides, snow in February is usually fluffier and prettier to look at than a drier storm with smaller flakes. We shall see. Winter is far from over.

60s and maybe a 70 Wednesday. Thursday will fall into the 40s and Friday will be in the 30s, same for most of Saturday until winds switch according to the "tame" GFS

[Ntxw]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

Still there at 500mb but dry run at the surface and tilted positive.

Ntxw, looks like we can write this one off, esp since energy apparently will get cut off. Gfs is getting in it's zone where it won't change much now. Maybe end of Jan into Feb could offer up our chance. I'm in Arkansas and haven't see a flurry

I would not write anything off until you are 2-3 days from it. Moving parts can make big changes even within 24 hours. We'll get a general idea come early week runs.

[orangeblood]

No winter storm in TX on this run of the GFS it appears.

Still there at 500mb but dry run at the surface and tilted positive.

Ntxw, looks like we can write this one off, esp since energy apparently will get cut off. Gfs is getting in it's zone where it won't change much now. Maybe end of Jan into Feb could offer up our chance. I'm in Arkansas and haven't see a flurry

IMO, can't quite write this on off yet...a blend of GFS/Canadian/Euro gives you a Texas winter storm along with around 40% of the GFS ensemble members. I believe today is "moving" day so to speak regarding the model runs...should find out soon

[wxman57]

Looks like yesterday's 18Z GFS was on that same crack as it was the week before Christmas. It would take a secondary disturbance moving across the cold air next Fri/Sat in order to get any post-frontal precip. Current EC/GFS runs DO have a second disturbance passing, but it's passing too far north to produce any precip.

[hamburgerman7070]

Wxman57, I have a question. The euro and ensembles show an interesting scenario for my area in the midsouth. Does that look like an over running setup or ULL on nw side of surface low? I was curious. Ntxw and orangeblood can answer that also.

[Ntxw]

Still positive tilt and dry mostly but the runs today from the GFS/Euro now sits 1050+mb in the northern plains. Likely they are catching up to the cold air in the north

[Ntxw]

-SOI daily at -16. That is a big dip. We're sitting basically where we were mid December

[Texas Snowman]

-SOI daily at -16. That is a big dip. We're sitting basically where we were mid December

So you’re saying there’s a chance...

For Portastorm to get more wintry precipitation.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, I have a question. The euro and ensembles show an interesting scenario for my area in the midsouth. Does that look like an over running setup or ULL on nw side of surface low? I was curious. Ntxw and orangeblood can answer that also.

Not sure where you are. Mid-south of what? What date?