Pacific Northwest Weather

snow_wizzard · #4821 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:45 pm

Actually Covington is 65. With these high cloud type of days it's easy to get bogus readings because of refracted sunlight. You must have the proper shielding. I am doubtful that the school sites do. At any rate this is very unimpressive compared to recent April warm spells. I bet Sea - Tac and Olympia will be fairly close to there daily normals (high and low averaged). A few degrees above normal is fine with me. I still say we could easily have one or two below normal days over the next week. That would certainly be a miss for you.

All I am saying is that this a run of the mill warm period. Nothing special

R-Dub · #4822 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:55 pm

Hey I am back, left Moses Lake at 8:30AM this morning and it was already 60 degrees!! Haven't checked the high over there today, but I am sure it was well into the 70's.

Here at LK Goodwin its Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a temp of 62 degrees.

Here are my pics from Moses Lake, hope you enjoy them! 8-)

snow_wizzard · #4823 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:01 pm

TT...you are going to have to really think about how to get out of this! We had a couple of days that averaged 8 and 9 degrees below normal earlier this month and you said it was nothing unusal. Just run of the mill. If 9 degree below normal (for the daily average of the high and low) was nothing special, how can a day a few degrees above normal be anything special. Got you on that one! :lol:

AnthonyC · #4824 Postby **AnthonyC** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:09 pm

In Snow_Wizzard's defense, although today was above normal, this is definitely not unusual for the end of April. Even temperatures in the mid 70s isn't unheard of this time of year. For something unusual, you'd need temperatures to be above 80F...possibly above 85F.

I would consider this a normal weather day for April 20...it was mostly sunny, aside from some high clouds, and mild...but definitely not VERY mild. My house hit 64F. That's not too impressive for this time of year.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #4825 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:31 pm

Thanks Anthony!

It is interesting to note that the official weather stations were all in the 62 - 68 range. I just saw the all of the high temperature for the past 6 hours. Everett was 62, Sea - Tac 64, Olympia 68.

My predition of 62 - 67 was pretty darn good!

I do believe that the School Net stations were thrown off by the refracted sunlight today.

TT-SEA · #4826 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:31 pm

I never said that getting into the upper 60's was an exceptionally warm event for April.

But it certainly isn't going to make this the coldest April on record... or even close!! You were of course suggesting that this cold April was something incredible. In the end it will be a little below normal. No big deal.

But even being below normal this month means nothing. So far this year we have bounced back and forth. This obsession with cold is annoying beyond belief. It always has to mean that we are on the verge of 1950 all over. Which we will probably never be again. I am virutally convinced that we are past any chance of returning to that type of pattern.

The months of April - October can go either way without meaning anything for the winter season. Our winters are warming... along with the rest of the world. Get used to it. Or you will spend the rest of your life disappointed and wondering why it was so snowy here in the past but not now.

This month was an extreme blessing... we desperately needed cool and rainy.

Remember... I am predicting below normal months through July and a warmer and drier than normal winter.

Below normal months until July are part of the master plan to bring a bland, and balmy winter!! You should root against my predictions (and cheer for above normal May - July) so that my analog years do not match. That is your only hope!!

TT-SEA · #4827 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:37 pm

School site in Olympia had a high of 65.5 degrees.

The official high in Olympia was 68 degrees.

School sites may be too low!!

Mostly mid to upper 60's around the area today. Some low 70's as well.

TT-SEA · #4828 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:44 pm

April of 2001 had 7 days with highs in the 40's (including one day that only got to 44 degrees).

April of 2005 has had 1 day with a high of 49.

Exceptionally cold?? Not this year!!

snow_wizzard · #4829 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 7:59 pm

Once again, it depends how you look at it. I have recorded 16 lows below 40 this month. I think that may be a record for me. I will check. I am very pleased that we had such highly below normal temps with above normal precip. You should look at years like 1955 among others if you think cool in the spring is a bad sign. I have done a study which proves that cool April's are a good thing. May and June are basically indifferent.

I agree that this will not be the big time cold April that I was hoping for.

Also, I am sure that you are way too hung up on this global warming thing. There have been periods in the past where the global temps fell by several degrees in a decade, and there is no explanation for it. I will bet you anything that the next 10 years will be cooler than the last 10. If not, I will be ready to buy what you're saying. It is nearly impossible that there will not be a pullback of some kind.

TT-SEA · #4830 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:13 pm

Time will tell.

andycottle · #4831 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 8:25 pm

Hey Randy...great pics! I like the ones you took of the clouds and sunsets. Very nice! Maybe it`s just my imagionation, but in pic#134...there appears to be two sets of very ominus low clouds tring to converge into one another. Was there a late day t-storm on the afternoon you took that pic? What really catches my eye is the cloud off to the left. That kinda looks a heavy rain-band cloud....or 'gust front' if ya will. Anyway....very interesting clouds in that pic. And nice shot of the rainbow!

-- Andy

Guest · #4832 Postby **Guest** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:01 pm

Well TT i think things caught up to you today... I think some good points were made against you by Anthony and SnowWizz... It seems like you are really trying to change the subject when Snowwizz was talking whats happening currently..

Just not too long ago you were the one saying a day 9-10 degrees below normal was nothing unusual and now today you are all siked about things being a tad bit warm... My temps today were 64-38 and if you say i am in a microclimate than that would be ruining your theory of OVERALL standards you are talking about... Also, why do you rely so much on School net observations rather than the actual readings? Maybe you know something about their thermometers that everyone here doesnt? Could you have risen the mercury bar on all of them?

You also said you were right in general about the temps today... You were way off on the Sea-tac reading that you relied so much on in the late winter months and reminded everyone when you were correct... Now you are wrong and say that SeaTac is a hard place to predict and that places around it were warmer so you were right overall... Nuh uh... that doesn't work buddy, you said seatac would be 68, you were off, no excuses... And where do you come off saying that Snowwizz is over obsessive about this month being EXTREMEMLY COLD AND BELOW NORMAL... all he wants is for the numbers to end up below normal rather than normal or above... Snowwizz was done talking about this month being one of the coldest on record quite awhile ago now... And, you say that some of those school sites are too low, that is pretty much impossible to happen unless the mercury was lowered on them. I can see how inaccurate a school thermometer would be... And plus, the pattern and winds and the onshore flow and high clouds today 100% DID NOT SUPPORT TEMPS PAST 70 SO THAT IS REDICULOUS TO SAY THAT TT's READINGS ARE WRONG COMPARED TO THE SCHOOL NET'S... so why the heck do you post them? POST THE AIRPORT READINGS AND THE ACTUALLY READINGS, NOT SCHOOL NETS..

And about next winter, if you say that all of the months from now until november have NO EFFECT WHAT SO EVER on next winter, than what makes you sooo sure next winter will be warm and balmy? You aren't making any sense...

TT-SEA · #4833 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:02 pm

WOW - 1955 was off the charts!!

An average temperature for February of 38.2 degrees... compared to 42.7 in 2005

An average temperature for March of 39.1 degrees... compared to 49.1 in 2005 ( a 10 degree difference in average temperature is staggering).

An average temperature for April of 44.5 degrees... compared to around 49 degrees (after the month is over) in 2005.

2005 looks so BORING and BLAND compared to 1955. Its not even close. Its comical to use it as a reference.

But 1993 is very close!!

TT-SEA · #4834 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:08 pm

Brennan... yet if I said next winter was going to be brutal then you would think everything I say is gold.

I was too high today with the temperature at Sea-Tac.

By 4 degrees.

The OFFICIAL high (not a school site) in Bellevue was 70 degrees. So I guess it did support 70 degrees!!! That also validates many of the school sites on the Eastside in the upper 60's and even low 70's.

You guys only look at data that supports your theories.

It would have to be 90 degrees every day for the next week for April to be above normal. There is no doubt it will be below normal. None. So enjoy the warmth!!

AnthonyC · #4835 Postby **AnthonyC** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:09 pm

But in TT-SEA's defense, I don't think a "below normal temperature" April has any indication what next winter will bring. I think there's many opportunities for any kind of weather...esp. with a neutral year. You must remember, the 2004-2005 winter was marked by a weak El Nino. Although most believe this has little affect on our winters, just a slight deviation from normal...esp. in the temperature department...has drastic changes for the PNW. If temperatures averaged 5F above normal throughout winter, that would basically eliminate any chance of snow...remember, when it snows in Western Washington it's usually JUST cold enough...I'm talking 31, 32, 33F...if it's five degrees warmer...38, 39F...the chance of snow is gone.

I've been reading the MANY posts both TT-SEA and Snow_Wizzard have posted the past week...and I disagree with both. TT-SEA argues Snow_Wizzard uses analogs from years that are cold...yet TT-SEA uses analogs of winters that are mild. JUST STOP COMPARING WITH PAST YEARS. The past is NEVER a good indication of the future.

And although our climate...and the world...has warmed over many centuries, I'm not buying the global warming. Global warming will begin with slight impacts...and then gradually more dramatic scenarios will emerge. Even a century worth of data is insufficient.

That's my two cents.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #4836 Postby **TT-SEA** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:25 pm

The effects of global warming are pretty significant already.

Read about some of the efftects in Europe, Russia, and Alaska. Some of its pretty amazing stuff.

To say its not happening is just ignoring strong evidence to the contrary.

The cause... definitely debatable. The results... pretty conclusive.

Everyone thinks when I say "global warming" I am referring to the liberal, environmentalist, "technology is bad" definition. I am just referring to the fact that the Earth is warming. Thats all. And thats pretty well accepted by science.

In a search for analog years... I started with the circumstances that made this winter and spring unique. I did not even look at the following winter until I identified the common years.

The common aspect... a cool summer and a warm winter to follow.

Throw in further global warming since those years and I think a cold winter is highly unlikely.

And a slightly below normal April is not even worth discussing.

R-Dub · #4837 Postby **R-Dub** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 9:55 pm

andycottle wrote:Hey Randy...great pics! I like the ones you took of the clouds and sunsets. Very nice! Maybe it`s just my imagionation, but in pic#134...there appears to be two sets of very ominus low clouds tring to converge into one another. Was there a late day t-storm on the afternoon you took that pic? What really catches my eye is the cloud off to the left. That kinda looks a heavy rain-band cloud....or 'gust front' if ya will. Anyway....very interesting clouds in that pic. And nice shot of the rainbow!

-- Andy

Yeah Andy those were late day Rain and T-Storm cells, they were quite impressive!!! The mornings would start out completely clear, then as the day would wear on, those awesome clouds would build up. You could see some areas were just getting dumped on, but they all skirted around where I was and we only had a few sprinkles. That one pic was a monster big cell, plenty of lightning from that one, but I just wasn't quick enough to get them on camera.

snow_wizzard · #4838 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:01 pm

Well...We agree to disagree about a cool April being significant. All I can say is that it leads to cold winters more often than not. I am taking it a step further and looking at years that had a very cool and wet period like this April did. I am up to 5 year comparison years, and I will unveil them soon. I will tell you that 1993 is one of them. The winter of 1993 - 94 was not quite as mild as the Seattle records would make you think. In Woodinville I recorded a low of 13 in November. Northern Whatcom County and the outflow areas in the Puget Sound region also had a pretty cold February, so it was a close call.

It is impossible for me to find the comparison years and then look at the winter they led to, because I pretty much have the winters memorized. I know that 1955 is not comparable, but I was making a point that a cool spring does not mean the next winter will be warm.

All I can say about the global warming is that we have had some warming recently...No doubt about it. On the other hand things like this do not go straight up. They have peaks and valleys. There is little doubt that some kind of a valley is due to happen. You never know...we may have hit the peak and may start to stairstep down now. Nobody knows!

snow_wizzard · #4839 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:24 pm

I actually saw some mammatus clouds today. That could be a sign that things will get progressivley more interesting as the week goes on. I looked at a series of satellite pix today and actually saw that the clouds that came through today formed over the Cascades and moved into the lowlands. As the airmass becomes more moist and unstable later in the week, we should have a good chance of seeing some action! The latest ETA (I have no idea why they renamed it) shows that the lifted index will be -1 on Friday. That is getting pretty low!

andycottle · #4840 Postby **andycottle** » Wed Apr 20, 2005 10:39 pm

R-Dub wrote:
andycottle wrote:Hey Randy...great pics! I like the ones you took of the clouds and sunsets. Very nice! Maybe it`s just my imagionation, but in pic#134...there appears to be two sets of very ominus low clouds tring to converge into one another. Was there a late day t-storm on the afternoon you took that pic? What really catches my eye is the cloud off to the left. That kinda looks a heavy rain-band cloud....or 'gust front' if ya will. Anyway....very interesting clouds in that pic. And nice shot of the rainbow!

-- Andy

Yeah Andy those were late day Rain and T-Storm cells, they were quite impressive!!! The mornings would start out completely clear, then as the day would wear on, those awesome clouds would build up. You could see some areas were just getting dumped on, but they all skirted around where I was and we only had a few sprinkles. That one pic was a monster big cell, plenty of lightning from that one, but I just wasn't quick enough to get them on camera.

Yeah I though so, Randy! They looked pretty threatning. Hope you had a nice time over at Moses lake!

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