Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4841 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:42 pm

front is between Wichita Falls, 38 winds N29-G37, and Bowie 48, NE9-G16
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Re: Re:

#4842 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:42 pm

Latest RUC has Fort Worth at 24F by 6am[/quote][/quote]

John, I know it's much further south, but what does the RUC show for Central Texas, like Waco-Temple-Killeen, as far as when it should dip below 0 Celcius? Thanks in advance.
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Re: Re:

#4843 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:43 pm

iorange55 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:So are we waiting for a model run or something to happen? I need to run and eat.



I'm waiting on the NAM. Really though it's all about watching everything unfold which won't happen till after midnight. I'm planning an all nighter because if I fall asleep there is no way I'm waking up at 5.


I so wish I could do that. I have work tomorrow, here in Denton, at least as of now. I will be up late, but not sure I want to risk being tired tomorrow.
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#4844 Postby DonWrk » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:43 pm

It would be nice having a map like that Oklahoma mesonet one.
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Re: Re:

#4845 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:44 pm

gboudx wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:So are we waiting for a model run or something to happen? I need to run and eat.


How far will you run? ;)


Not to much tonight, first night after having the flu for 5 days. Just need to stretch the legs out. I am not worried about getting hit by the cold, just don't want to have lots to read when I get back.
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Re: Re:

#4846 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:49 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:Not to much tonight, first night after having the flu for 5 days. Just need to stretch the legs out. I am not worried about getting hit by the cold, just don't want to have lots to read when I get back.


I left work around 5:15, got home, took the family out for some supper and got back on around 7:30. When I left we were on page 240, and came back it was page 242. You won't miss much. Have fun on that jog and take it slow until you build back up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4847 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:49 pm

NAM has initialized, time to prepare for precip amount guesses.
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#4848 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:50 pm

Ok, at best the front runs on a line from Guthrie, TX. to Just south of Wichita Falls, TX to Ada, OK.

It is already below freezing from Childress, TX to Lawton, OK to Ada, OK


Winds behind the front are N25+ mph with higher gust....
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4849 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:NAM has initialized, time to prepare for precip amount guesses.



Drumroll please. I'm going to throw my guess out there after the NAM.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4850 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:52 pm

iorange55 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:NAM has initialized, time to prepare for precip amount guesses.



Drumroll please. I'm going to throw my guess out there after the NAM.


I already have numbers in mind after extensive comparing today :P. Just see how close NAM gets.
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#4851 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:57 pm

Here's the Composit Radar loop of Texas, showers and storms are breaking out along the front now.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php
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Re:

#4852 Postby gboudx » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:58 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Ok, at best the front runs on a line from Guthrie, TX. to Just south of Wichita Falls, TX to Ada, OK.

It is already below freezing from Childress, TX to Lawton, OK to Ada, OK


Winds behind the front are N25+ mph with higher gust....


Interesting because the graphic on the DFW NWS front page appears to show this orientation at the 12-3am hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4853 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:58 pm

NAM goes bonkers 3+ Metro area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4854 Postby iorange55 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:58 pm

NAM is coming in stronger! 3 inches widespread across the area a few isolated spots of more here and there. Whole line of snow shifted east again.
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Re: Re:

#4855 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:01 pm

gboudx wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Ok, at best the front runs on a line from Guthrie, TX. to Just south of Wichita Falls, TX to Ada, OK.

It is already below freezing from Childress, TX to Lawton, OK to Ada, OK


Winds behind the front are N25+ mph with higher gust....


Interesting because the graphic on the DFW NWS front page appears to show this orientation at the 12-3am hours.



If the front is pushing SSE at 20-25mph, it would be in to the DFW area by 12-1am time frame
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4856 Postby johnbasham » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:03 pm

RUC Showing the High Pressure system strengthening to a 1051mb centered in Eastern Montana by 3am. Temperatures beneath the High are insanely cold.
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#4857 Postby MSUDawg » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:03 pm

Come onnnn cold.... hate seeing that wasted energy in rain instead of snow earlier on... less rain..less sleet...bring on the snow
like the first couple of panels on the NAM...thanks again to iorange55 for the link and Ntwx for very informative posting.
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#4858 Postby southerngale » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:05 pm

20" plus for Oklahoma - 0z NAM - :eek:
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#4859 Postby DonWrk » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:08 pm

Is the NAM showing 26 inches for Oklahoma City?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#4860 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:11 pm

johnbasham wrote:RUC Showing the High Pressure system strengthening to a 1051mb centered in Eastern Montana by 3am. Temperatures beneath the High are insanely cold.


PREFER THE FASTER TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR FROM THE RUC AND NAM
AND USUALLY THE RUC TIMING IS PRETTY ACCURATE. WE EXPECT
SUBFREEZING TEMPS TO ARRIVE IN THE NW CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST AIR BARRELING SOUTH THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THAN IT WILL TO THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD REACH THE METROPLEX/WACO
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM....AND CLEAR THE CWA BY NOON


NWS FTW likes the RUC as well, but feel front is about 2-3 hsr faster, with subfreezing temps are ready reported in NW areas.
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