Texas Winter 2017-2018

[hamburgerman7070]

Wxman57, I have a question. The euro and ensembles show an interesting scenario for my area in the midsouth. Does that look like an over running setup or ULL on nw side of surface low? I was curious. Ntxw and orangeblood can answer that also.

Not sure where you are. Mid-south of what? What date?

Im in Jonesboro ar, nw of Memphis TN. About 85 miles. The 12z euro has a winter event and it's ensembles but the gfs don't. Is there anything that stands out to you why they differ? It's hour 144-156 approximately

[downsouthman1]

Wxman57, I have a question. The euro and ensembles show an interesting scenario for my area in the midsouth. Does that look like an over running setup or ULL on nw side of surface low? I was curious. Ntxw and orangeblood can answer that also.

Not sure where you are. Mid-south of what? What date?

Im in Jonesboro ar, nw of Memphis TN. About 85 miles. The 12z euro has a winter event and it's ensembles but the gfs don't. Is there anything that stands out to you why they differ? It's hour 144-156 approximately

That is why they differ.

[hamburgerman7070]

Not sure where you are. Mid-south of what? What date?

Im in Jonesboro ar, nw of Memphis TN. About 85 miles. The 12z euro has a winter event and it's ensembles but the gfs don't. Is there anything that stands out to you why they differ? It's hour 144-156 approximately

That is why they differ.

It shouldn't make a difference if both models showing similar patterns, but apparently not. That's why I was wondering what stood out on how they handled things

[downsouthman1]

Im in Jonesboro ar, nw of Memphis TN. About 85 miles. The 12z euro has a winter event and it's ensembles but the gfs don't. Is there anything that stands out to you why they differ? It's hour 144-156 approximately

That is why they differ.

It shouldn't make a difference if both models showing similar patterns, but apparently not. That's why I was wondering what stood out on how they handled things

Global models are all based on formulas, algorithms, and history. Inherently, they'll handle differently, especially so far out.

[Ntxw]

Still don't see a torch yet on the GFS through the 16th. The pattern is still roughly the same, with the couple of threats and cold air blasts that seems to be coming in as the range gets closer after being lost. The 500mb pattern is stale as it is. The models keep trying to break down the +PNA but eventually fails and then sneaky cold keeps coming back into North America. -20s will be back in the northern plains again.

The models are going to be right about lowering heights in the GOA however raises heights is persistent in Northwest N America along the Alaskan/Canadian border that just keeps pumping cold air.

[South Texas Storms]

Still don't see a torch yet on the GFS through the 16th. The pattern is still roughly the same, with the couple of threats and cold air blasts that seems to be coming in as the range gets closer after being lost. The 500mb pattern is stale as it is. The models keep trying to break down the +PNA but eventually fails and then sneaky cold keeps coming back into North America. -20s will be back in the northern plains again.

The models are going to be right about lowering heights in the GOA however raises heights is persistent in Northwest N America along the Alaskan/Canadian border that just keeps pumping cold air.

Looks quite dry across much of the state over the next 10 days. Less than 0.50 inch for most areas. We really need the +PNA to end to get some good precip back into TX.

[Ntxw]

]Looks quite dry across much of the state over the next 10 days. Less than 0.50 inch for most areas. We really need the +PNA to end to get some good precip back into TX.

The -SOI burst again suggest the +PNA could be here to stay. It may not ever recover this winter. And I think extreme warmth will continue to be two weeks out. As the short range will likely show cold shots misguided by the models.

[Ntxw]

Here is an example of what I mean by models missing the cold in northwest North America. Focus on the Western half of Canada. From forecasting long out of warmth there to brutal cold as the time gets closer. Remember a few days ago when Wxman57 was saying there was no real cold air north of the border shown? Well it's not that he was completely wrong, it was that the models were misguiding him. Showing 20s and 30s is much different than -20s and -30s a week later in that region for the same dates.

[hamburgerman7070]

I heard from a certain person that the mjo pulse should move quick through the warm phases. If that's true, and we get to the colder phases later, will it be tough to see winter storms in the southern plains since pna will remain positive unfortunately?

[Ntxw]

I-45 corridor next few days could see anywhere from 0.50+-1"+ of rain the next couple of days

[OKMet83]

NTXW has covered everything pretty well you all in here just need to have some patience. I understand sometimes either said than done! lol Things can do a 360 in no time it's happened before! Oh and the "warm-up" we expected next weekend has been delayed again... Yeah thing's don't look exactly promising at the moment for a Winter Storm in the near term but that could change at any time.. A lot of moving parts with the current pattern we're in..

[Ntxw]

The big -SOI against the Nina norm of -14 today continues. That brings the 30 day avg near -5. Jargon talk for most but for the ENSO and Pacific forcing folks this is big. Don't let the "mild MJO" phases scare you, doesn't tell you the whole story. Take torch forecasts east of the Rockies with a grain of salt

When we go mild, the sun disappears. Cloudy streak cometh

[TeamPlayersBlue]

As it rolls through Phase 2 and 3, typically its warmer here and favors mountain west snow. Around the 20th you can see that. GFS looks quite interesting for Texas this friday. Going to dig in deeper today.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Light rain starting here. Doesn’t look like it’s going to amount to much, but it is precipitation that we need badly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 0z Euro, whats that showing for Texas fellas? Looks interesting on the 500MB chart.

[wxman57]

The 0z Euro, whats that showing for Texas fellas? Looks interesting on the 500MB chart.

00Z Euro looks like there will be no moisture in the cold air next Friday - same as recent GFS runs. Upper-air disturbance is indicated to pass well north of Texas on Friday. Possibly light snow flurries central and northern Oklahoma.

[Ntxw]

I'll take the Canadian at 500mb and trend wetter at the surface through the week!

[Ralph's Weather]

I havent been able to look at models this weekend, but sounds like the trends are looking good for northern TX as far as winter precip potential for late this week. As always there will be more cold than modeled and the upper level feature will be further south and stronger than the globals show at this range. This has been the case with every system this winter. Now this is not to say that it is anywhere close to a sure thing just that chances are increasing. Sub freezing highs are very possible with this system.

[orangeblood]

I'll take the Canadian at 500mb and trend wetter at the surface through the week!

First analog that came to mind, when looking at projected 500mb pattern for next weekend, was New Years Eve 2000!!

[OKMet83]

I'll take the Canadian at 500mb and trend wetter at the surface through the week!

First analog that came to mind, when looking at projected 500mb pattern for next weekend, was New Years Eve 2000!!

Are you referring to the 2000 Ice Storm ? I believe we had two events that last week of Dec one that brought 1-4 inches of Snow and just prior to it the Ice Storm.. I could be wrong on my dates but I'll look it up shortly