Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

Getting snow for the first time finally now

[gpsnowman]

Getting snow for the first time finally now

Nice flizzard happening in GP.

[rwfromkansas]

Wife - Hopefully, you learned your lessons about snow in Dallas

Me - 06z GFS!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2025011006/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Since the NW side of that would be all snow, no mixing…bring it. Lol.

[Stratton23]

12z models coming in very cold, tim frame is starting to move up into the 8-9 day range

[txtwister78]

I know we're going to have plenty of time over the coming days to track/discuss this, but if you're looking for a more widespread winter pattern across the great state of Texas, the GFS just joined the Euro and CMC. Also note the presence on this run of that SE ridge. Those are the signals you look for to get cold and perhaps precip to mix. Long way to go but just an observation.

[Stratton23]

Man that GFS run is a thing of beauty ( before anyone asks about precipitation, that doesnt mean anything this far out)

[rwfromkansas]

I think this is virtually unheard of up there. But many Kansas schools haven’t opened all week due to horrible rural roads, very little melting etc. The most snow days I ever had up there as a kid was 2, and that was for a foot.

[orangeblood]

I know we're going to have plenty of time over the coming days to track/discuss this, but if you're looking for a more widespread winter pattern across the great state of Texas, the GFS just joined the Euro and CMC. Also note the presence on this run of that SE ridge. Those are the signals you look for to get cold and perhaps precip to mix. Long way to go but just an observation.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/t2m_f_anom/1736510400/1737320400-Ji8HbkgvlU4.png

Likely the coldest air of 2025 coming up...the really dense arctic cold that models have major problems handling, 5h orientation look great for precip too!

[orangeblood]

Man that GFS run is a thing of beauty ( before anyone asks about precipitation, that doesnt mean anything this far out)

It really does, a relaxed PNA too to get energy to dig further southwest

[Quixotic]

Band coming into FW looks pretty decent.

I wanted to wait up but couldn’t and I got another 1.5” overnight. So, you didn’t bust as far as I’m concerned. 7” is more than I expected. Better than March 2015 and almost Feb 2021.

I got a good 3/4ths an inch out of it! And thanks, glad you got your numbers. The evening round really let me down there, was hoping at least a few inches. But lesson learned.

The interesting part the overachievement was underneath the cold ULL to the north from the Panhandle to Oklahoma. Though qpf wasn't intense, persistence won out up there where little was projected. Speaking of that ULL feature is bringing flizzards this morning.

Caught the NWS by surprise as well. They issued WSWs for the panhandle. Looking at who they warned, you could tell that ULL was going ENE. Didn’t look like much on radar but it was really tight.

[txtwister78]

Man that GFS run is a thing of beauty ( before anyone asks about precipitation, that doesnt mean anything this far out)

It doesn't at this range, however you can look for signals with this setup and as Orangeblood correctly points out, you want a little bit of -PNA (SE ridge) in there to help systems/energy dig further west so more of the state can get involved with that much cold air involved. Right now, at this range it's still "well that interesting".

[wxman22]

It’s very exciting that we already have another arctic blast to track. With models also showing signs of a continuous active storm track across the south. Maybe a mini version of winter 2014?

[Cpv17]

I expect us to get to 300 pages in no time at this rate.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I expect us to get to 300 pages in no time at this rate.

Hopefully things will get more interesting for us so we can increase those pages

[wxman57]

Before everyone gets too excited about a few model runs indicating more snow in 10 days, keep in mind that a week before this event, the Euro was predicting a foot of snow here in Houston. Then it was 12+ inches in D-FW. We got 40 degrees with nearly 2 inches of rain here in Houston. Not even a sleet pellet. Models don't do very well beyond 3-4 days in this pattern. Those of you in north Texas may get another shot at snow, but it looks like more cold rain along the TX and LA coasts.

I miss July...

[orangeblood]

Really Strong storm signal from 12Z GEFS Mean in the 7-10...Strong Arctic HP hugging rockies, 850C sagging into CenTX with precip

[Ntxw]

12z euro is cold for the mentioned period. Snow along the frontal boundary and then .

[orangeblood]

To illustrate what very easily could've happened across DFW yesterday is happening in Atlanta this morning...major forecast bust for them. Over 6" plus snow when forecasters/models called for mostly sleet/frz rain

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1877721712633983448

[Stratton23]

, this is a good pattern if you want winter weather in se texas, cold rain is possible, but also cant rule off a winter storm down here

[bubba hotep]

12z euro is cold for the mentioned period. Snow along the frontal boundary and then .

Pushing single digits for DFW