Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

Snow and ice would be nice but I’m looking for brutal cold. I’ve had lows the past 2 years in the single digits and would love to see it again this year.

[harp]

0Z GFS was just.....weird.

[Brent]

horrible 0z globals... GFS, FV, CMC all no

and the Euro has yet to be impressed

[Haris]

horrible 0z globals... GFS, FV, CMC all no

and the Euro has yet to be impressed

the cmc still wants a lil light snow Fri AM in Austin. Other than that, agree.

[Brent]

lost most of the GFS ensembles too, only count 5 out of 20 with any meaningful snow in DFW(an inch sadly) and the biggest member is 4 inches, had members near a foot earlier

[bubba hotep]

80F looks more likely next week at DFW than any winter wx...

[Cerlin]

Like I said a few days ago, the 8th is the day I throw the towel in *if* we don’t get a good pattern or indications of one. Hopefully it’s reverse psychology but I just don’t understand why we get everything in the long range but never the short. Eek. Still lots of February left though.

[stormlover2013]

way to early still, lets wait till about tuesday

[rwfromkansas]

Well, GFS trending Euro. We can likely write off next week unless it trends back, which can happen.

[orangeblood]

Fasten up!!.....The Texas Storm2k Giant is about to take off!!



This potential event is still 6-7 days away and this shallow Arctic airmass is going to give models/forecasters fits next week...hold on tight!!

[Ntxw]

Well, GFS trending Euro. We can likely write off next week unless it trends back, which can happen.

The general mood(s) of the thread often flips 180 every 6-12 hours, coinciding with the direction of the model suites. One shouldn't expect any less

[Cerlin]

Well, GFS trending Euro. We can likely write off next week unless it trends back, which can happen.

The general mood(s) of the thread often flips 180 every 6-12 hours, coinciding with the direction of the model suites. One shouldn't expect any less

I’m guilty of that sometimes.

In other news, nice fog this morning, got a pretty decent rain shower for a couple of minutes it felt like.

[Ntxw]

So far it is still a 7 days out forecast so believing it will snow or no snow is futile. It will warm up early week, followed by passage of some cold air. That's all about what we know will likely happen.

[dhweather]

This Winter has just had too much zonal flow for any significant arctic intrusions. We do get a shot of cold air, it's gone in a day or two. Adding to the misery, it seems like every single trough has been positively tilted this year.

[Ntxw]

In a -PNA pattern (with EPO) you run a couple of risks. Storms are better since they are to our west/southwest. Ahead of them you risk some warmth, due to flow from a moist Pacific (warm air holds more water) at the same time you run the risk of cold air spilling southward at our direction. Particularly at the lower levels. Those wild swings will likely produce some back and forth on the models for some days more.

[srainhoutx]

After effects of the SSW Event are still unfolding. Warm air in the Stratosphere continue to drop into the Troposphere in the Arctic Region. The Ensembles do agree much colder air develops across North America and particularly in our source Region as mid February nears. I find it somewhat amusing that folks seem to expect instant pattern changes via the computer schemes when these events unfold. Sudden Stratospheric Warming took place in late December breaking down the Polar Vortex leading to a split that we witnessed this week across the Mid West. From SSW to split took 30days as we would expect. Blocking is developing now and can be seen by the Teleconnection Indices. Just as the response is always slow in ENSO events, the same goes for other Hemispheric Pattern reshuffles.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, GFS trending Euro. We can likely write off next week unless it trends back, which can happen.

The general mood(s) of the thread often flips 180 every 6-12 hours, coinciding with the direction of the model suites. One shouldn't expect any less

Guilty of that. Next 12 hours we will all be excited.

[rwfromkansas]

After effects of the SSW Event are still unfolding. Warm air in the Stratosphere continue to drop into the Troposphere in the Arctic Region. The Ensembles do agree much colder air develops across North America and particularly in our source Region as mid February nears. I find it somewhat amusing that folks seem to expect instant pattern changes via the computer schemes when these events unfold. Sudden Stratospheric Warming took place in late December breaking down the Polar Vortex leading to a split that we witnessed this week across the Mid West. From SSW to split took 30days as we would expect. Blocking is developing now and can be seen by the Teleconnection Indices. Just as the response is always slow in ENSO events, the same goes for other Hemispheric Pattern reshuffles.

Mother Nature is a true lady then...takes awhile to get warmed up. Lol

[Ntxw]

After effects of the SSW Event are still unfolding. Warm air in the Stratosphere continue to drop into the Troposphere in the Arctic Region. The Ensembles do agree much colder air develops across North America and particularly in our source Region as mid February nears. I find it somewhat amusing that folks seem to expect instant pattern changes via the computer schemes when these events unfold. Sudden Stratospheric Warming took place in late December breaking down the Polar Vortex leading to a split that we witnessed this week across the Mid West. From SSW to split took 30days as we would expect. Blocking is developing now and can be seen by the Teleconnection Indices. Just as the response is always slow in ENSO events, the same goes for other Hemispheric Pattern reshuffles.

 https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1091334481330475008

[Ntxw]

Relative to normal for a 30 day aggregate, I do think the coldest February anomalies as a whole will be centered along the plains, southern plains, and southwest. The greatest raw temperatures and short term magnitude obviously will be in the Dakotas and Montana. Still though we will have to get through 5-7 days of mild temperatures and then have the models get out of that "memory" glut of that mild transitional pattern.