Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... I do not have the energy to debate you. Snow_Wizzard is at least reasonable. Much more reasonable than you.

I predicted 76 degrees in North Bend. I assume you would know that could mean a few places touching 80 degrees. Like Issaquah... like Sammamish... maybe Covington.

Should be in the 70's most places tomorrow. That would be a "warm spell".

Bellevue had 68 degrees today. Thats pretty warm.

You are just annoying. I have been saying for a long time that some warm weather was coming from Wednesday of this week and beyond. That our below normal days were numbered. That it COULD get really warm... like close to 80 degrees on the Eastside. Maybe not... but its still warm and that was my point.

Now you are just being annoying for the sake of being annoying.

I have been very close with the overall pattern. Very close. To say otherwise is just stupid.

BTW - Sea-Tac had a high of 61 degrees (not 59). Olympia got up to 67 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Olympia was 9.5 degrees above normal today. That is erasing the cold of earlier in the month when computing the overall average.

Sea-Tac was 3 degrees above normal.

[TT-SEA]

The funny about these so-called wild patterns that we have been seeing is that if you look at the statistics for the year it has been very bland. Nothing extreme at all.

A little below normal... a little above normal.

You would never identify this as a wild year so far based on monthly average temperatures.

[TT-SEA]

Here is something amazing...

Olympia has seen 13 days at or above normal this month.

Only 8 days below normal.


You can say warm nights... but most nights have been in the 30's (which is normal).

Wow.... shockingly cold around here!! What a cold month.

Wild.

[TT-SEA]

Final thought... I do sense a return to a cooler, wetter pattern by the end of the next week.

Nothing dramatic... but yet another pattern change.

Typical spring in Seattle.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...I am in disbelief that you can call this pattern normal! The models are having fits trying to figure it out. Right now the GFS and ETA are in the worst disagreement that I have ever seen. The ETA shows nothing and the GFS shows us getting pounded this weekend. The Canadian is wetter than the ETA. My guess is that the GFS is going to win on this. The ECMWF is supporting it fairly well. Incredibly the GFS now shows the 850mb temps dropping to 1C on Sunday night. The bottom line appears to be showers and thunderstorms for late Saturday through Sunday, clearing and cool Sunday night, seasonable high on Monday. I am seeing temps at or below normal from Sunday through early Tuesday. That will be followed by one or two mild days, and then we enter a cool and active period. A very lame warm spell overall. The only really warm days will be tomorrow and Saturday.

Unlike all of the other warm spells for the past several months, this one is not going to achieve such extreme status. The cold periods are beginning to outweight the warm, for the first time in ages!

[snow_wizzard]

TT...There is no doubt that some areas have been a lot more below normal than others this month. I must point out, that many of Olympia's above normal days were just a hair above, while many of the cold ones were way below.

The thing I really like about the cold spell this month is that it came with abundant moisture. Many April wet periods are pretty warm. In my book any month that comes out below normal right now is headline news. We have had very few below normal months in the last two years. Now that next week looks essentially normal, I think almost everyone will come out below. Olympia could be the exception.

[andycottle]

Looking at the MM5 models tonight, I think tomorrow afternoon into early evening...we could be seeing the very likely hood of T-Storms developing over SW Western WA and Northern most region of Western Oregon as well as the North Oregon coast as CAPE values are in the 400 - 500+ J/KG mark. And with lifted indices around -2, Lapse rate near or at 8...per GOES satellite 850 - 500MB Lapses rate loop, South to SW winds of 25 to 30kts at 500MB, think there could definally be some thunder heard and lightning strikes down there tomorrow.

Anyone agree on the development of t-storms down there tomorrow?

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

One last thing. What do you mean nothing extreme? This year has had many very interesting occurences!

1. the most consectuve lows of 25 or below of any month since Nov 1985 (my records).

2. The second most lows below 40 of any April, since I began keeping records in 1978.

3. One of the driest February's in history.

4. One of the few times on record to have a very warm March followed by a cool April.

5. An impressive wet and cool period for April. It was more impressive than you think. Sure it has happend before, but it is up there with the better ones.

I am sorry you do not have an appreciation for the finer points of weather. I get excited about the oddity of this year as much as I do about actual observered weather. The observed weather is going to catch up with some of the amazing upper level stuff we have been witnessing. All I can say is that one year from now you will be in stunned disbelief at what you have seen. I just have a sixth sense on this one.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You leave yourself so open to be proven wrong! Two of the days you said were above normal in Olympia actually had 0 degree departures from normal. That is dead on normal, not either above or below.

Their monthly average is currently 0.52 degrees below normal. You predicted they would average 1.5 above for the month. With Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday of next week slated to be near normal (Tuesday is likely to have a cold low and fairly warm high), that is going to be difficult! There are only four days that have a chance of being substantially above normal, those are tomorrow, Saturday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Not looking good for your cause!

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...I agree that SW WA and NW Oregon could have some action tomorrow. Those LI's are really getting low in the afternoon!

[Guest]

No TT i am not being annoying, i just think its funny because you will never admit you are wrong and listening to your rediculous, and babbling defense is hilarious.

[andycottle]

Yeah...Im thinking just sometime after lunch...ohh between 12 and 2pm, that they will start to fire! And bet there will be some weather spotter reports coming in as well.

[Guest]

You think you have the pattern all down... Sure you got the pattern change correct, thats about it...you make it seem like you are nailing everything..

[Guest]

TT, one moment you said sunny and warm with temps reaching 80 degrees in places... shortly after you are saying upper 60's and possible rain showers over the weekend... Admit it, you changed your mind so hypathetically you are incorrect. I havn't seen you get anything right than anybody shouldn't have gotten or didn't get right. The only reason you stand out above others is because you are always telling everyone you are right and have gotten every prediction right... even when you are wrong you make it sound like you were right. Everything is a win win situation for you.

[Guest]

LOL I am histerical over your comments... I am not trying to be annoying but it is just sooo obvious and broad that you were wrong about those things i and snow wizz quoted you on and you just can't admit it. You start changing the subject and talking about the monthly average... NOBODY ON HERE Thinks this month is going to be a cold and way below normal month but for some reason you keep sarcastically saying THIS IS A COLD MONTH.

[Guest]

and TT there is nothing to debate about from what i quoted you on, it was plain and simple that you changed your prediction and you changed what models you relied on to the driest and warmest model... you call us cold bias... you are warm and dry bias... re-read what i quoted you on and try to defend yourself and quote yourself so you dont change the subjectt and what not... GET TO THE POINT. blabbering jibberisher...

[TT-SEA]

Good morning all...

I enjoyed reading all of your comments!!

Here on Friday the NWS is not too excited about the chance for a rainy, cool weekend...

NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING. A REX BLOCK WILL FORM OFF THE WRN CANADIAN COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... ALLOWING A CLOSED LOW TO MOVE ACROSS OREGON. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD...THEREBY KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY. THUS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MEANING THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL BE OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY. CONSEQUENTLY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL TO OCCUR AND THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MOS POPS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... good comments as usual.

A couple things to point out...

1) Statistically... the number of nights below 40 degrees is not significant this month. Seattle has seen only 7 days with lows below 40. Just as recently as 2001 there was 14 days with lows below 40.

2) I said that Olympia had 13 days AT OR above normal. And I do think they will officially end up the month above normal.

3) Although dry... February saw 4 times as much rain as February of 1993.

4) Go through the records and identify all the times March was above normal and April was slightly below. The list will be more than a few... probably about 30% of the time.


"Stunned disbelief"?? Now thats a bold prediction. Remember it will take more than the incredible pattern we had in Janaury that led to a little wet snow. That did not really "stun" me.

But I admire your conviction.

You already know that I think you are going to be disappointed. But the debate is definitely interesting!! I only wish we could fast forward the clock to next spring.

[Guest]

When there is as small amount of rain as we had in February, 4 times less amount isn't reducing it that much. And i Just don't know how impressive it would be even if we had 30 days of lows below 40... The average low for this time of year here is 41 and that just raised from 40. And lets use a little bit wider of standards than just olympia when trying to find above normal places... They may end up slightly above normal, but nothing significantly positive or negative.