Texas Winter 2020-2021

[ZeroGee]

There’s a lot of moisture and low clouds - it’s almost fog/mist conditions. I could see it happening.

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

[Iceresistance]

There’s a lot of moisture and low clouds - it’s almost fog/mist conditions. I could see it happening.

First post for you, Welcome to the Team!

[Brent]

There’s a lot of moisture and low clouds - it’s almost fog/mist conditions. I could see it happening.

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

It's probably just the same drizzle we had last night

My car was still icy even at 4pm

[rwfromkansas]

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

TWC: Total Worthless Crap. Weather apps are a joke.

[Iceresistance]

TWC is showing freezing rain tonight in Plano, that can't be right, can it?

TWC: Total Worthless Crap. Weather apps are a joke.

I once had a Weather app forecast of 33°F today, they always call for the WARMEST possibility . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

That 0z 12k nam is a doozy. Up to 1” qpf during the event. If it’s wrong about the predominance mixed precip up front, that would lead to widespread totals of 10”+ across most of dfw

[Texas Snow]

I’m kind of a rookie. When it comes to Winter Weather accuracy, which Global Model is the most accurate?

I’ve been thinking on how to answer this as others may have been and I still haven’t come up with the right answer. The bottom line is there is not a “most accurate” model. That is why you can’t depend on models alone. You need to understand their biases which takes years of training and education.

There are certain models like the NAM that are better at handling cold air, however it s not global and only goes out 84 hours. The euro is called king euro for a reason however if you read back in the last hundred pages you’ll see how completely awful it has been for this entire storm. The Canadian is called the crazy Canadian for a reason but if it’s guidance matches up with most other models then it can lead you to a trend. The GFS ahas gotten better over the past couple years and so far seems to be the leader for this particular winter outbreak.

The snow a few weeks ago was best by the euro and the gfs was not very good.

Inside 2 days are hi res models that you start to lean on NAM, HRRR,WAP, WRF, Others

Bottom line is that there are a lot of really smart amateur posters on this site and even ProMets and just pay attention to learn particular leanings that it may have in over time you’ll start to get a feel of yourself.

Now you can see why I posted above about never relying on an app that just uses model output to give you a forecast.

Go to tropical tidbits or pivotal weather and play around with models at different times and start seeing how they are different just using temp or precip outputs. Over time you might learn to look at upper air etc but start easy

All that said and I didn’t answer your question at all

[DeltaV]

I should endeavor to learn to read models I suppose. You all are right about weather apps being worthless, unless the data is real time. I bought a meteorology textbook, guess it's time to do some reading and learn a thing or two.

[Ntxw]

I should endeavor to learn to read models I suppose. You all are right about weather apps being worthless, unless the data is real time. I bought a meteorology textbook, guess it's time to do some reading and learn a thing or two.

Weather apps and TWC are often just automated forecasts derived from weather model output usually without any forecasting insight or adjustments. So if a model is pin-point good then it's a good forecast, but if it isn't then you know the deal . And lord you've seen us go up and down with these models on a daily basis.

[DeltaV]

I should endeavor to learn to read models I suppose. You all are right about weather apps being worthless, unless the data is real time. I bought a meteorology textbook, guess it's time to do some reading and learn a thing or two.

Weather apps and TWC are often just automated forecasts derived from weather model output usually without any forecasting insight or adjustments. So if a model is pin-point good then it's a good forecast, but if it isn't then you know the deal . And lord you've seen us go up and down with these models on a daily basis.

I suppose that's part of the fun of it though huh? The complete unpredictability of the weather. I'm truly humbled at the thought that "we" can even predict a forecast with a fair bit of accuracy within two or so days.

[rwfromkansas]

That 0z 12k nam is a doozy. Up to 1” qpf during the event. If it’s wrong about the predominance mixed precip up front, that would lead to widespread totals of 10”+ across most of dfw

NWS hasn’t even mentioned sleet in the watch, just snow.

Don’t see how this possibly could not be at least 90% snow, but I’m no expert.

[HockeyTx82]

Fox 4 teased about a "sneaky" system for Saturday. It was the 9PM start of the news.

[Ntxw]

I should endeavor to learn to read models I suppose. You all are right about weather apps being worthless, unless the data is real time. I bought a meteorology textbook, guess it's time to do some reading and learn a thing or two.

Weather apps and TWC are often just automated forecasts derived from weather model output usually without any forecasting insight or adjustments. So if a model is pin-point good then it's a good forecast, but if it isn't then you know the deal . And lord you've seen us go up and down with these models on a daily basis.

I suppose that's part of the fun of it though huh? The complete unpredictability of the weather. I'm truly humbled at the thought that "we" can even predict a forecast with a fair bit of accuracy within two or so days.

Of course! What's the fun in it if we know what's going to happen all the time .

It also makes us a great community. We get great insight and thoughts from pro mets, enthusiasts, future generation mets, and just your every day IMBY posters and we crowd source/interpret all of it for one another! It's not like we get to sit one on one with a forecasting met for every storm and get a high grade forecast, this forum is as good as any .

[cstrunk]

@ Cstrunk, do you really think we are going to hit 37 tomorrow? That is the forecasted high for Tyler, tomorrow.

In my semi-educated, non-professional opinion... No. My guess is it might make it to 34F at most, but wouldn't surprise me if 32-33F is the high.

[utpmg]

Hm, here on the east side, most of my surfaces (except for trees/bushes) had thawed. Now we've dipped just below freezing again, and everything in my yard is coated again. Pretty decent precip falling too. They've just close 183 from here to Cedar Park.

[Iceresistance]

0z ICON starts the Storm faster than 18z, but slightly drier . . .

[Ntxw]

0z ICON starts the Storm faster than 18z, but slightly drier . . .

It's definitely a little drier especially to the North. DFW is still doing good on this run, that leading feature early on is starting to become a player if this is a trend.

[rwfromkansas]

I should endeavor to learn to read models I suppose. You all are right about weather apps being worthless, unless the data is real time. I bought a meteorology textbook, guess it's time to do some reading and learn a thing or two.

I got the Weather Map Handbook by Tim Vasquez. It has info on every type of model map out there. I only have barely got into it, but I want to really study it more. It isn’t an easy read, but informative.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/mapbook/

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I’m kind of a rookie. When it comes to Winter Weather accuracy, which Global Model is the most accurate?

I’ve been thinking on how to answer this as others may have been and I still haven’t come up with the right answer. The bottom line is there is not a “most accurate” model. That is why you can’t depend on models alone. You need to understand their biases which takes years of training and education.

There are certain models like the NAM that are better at handling cold air, however it s not global and only goes out 84 hours. The euro is called king euro for a reason however if you read back in the last hundred pages you’ll see how completely awful it has been for this entire storm. The Canadian is called the crazy Canadian for a reason but if it’s guidance matches up with most other models then it can lead you to a trend. The GFS ahas gotten better over the past couple years and so far seems to be the leader for this particular winter outbreak.

The snow a few weeks ago was best by the euro and the gfs was not very good.

Inside 2 days are hi res models that you start to lean on NAM, HRRR,WAP, WRF, Others

Bottom line is that there are a lot of really smart posters on this site and just pay attention to work particular leanings that it may have in overtime you’ll start to get a feel of yourself.

Now you can see why I posted above about never relying on an app that just uses model output to give you a forecast.

Go to tropical tidbits or pivotal weather and play around with models at different times and start seeing how they are different just using temp or precip outputs. Over time you might learn to look at upper air etc but start easy

All that said and I didn’t answer your question at all

Thank you for taking the time out to write this. During my undergrad one of my professors pretty much gave us the basic rundown on global models such as GFS, EURO, CMC, and JMA, but didn’t really go too far in depth. I do agree with your sentiments about the weather apps as Apple Weather/Weather Channel is “forecasting” for San Antonio, Helotes, and Fair Oaks Ranch areas only a 30% Chance of Rain for Saturday and doesn’t mention anything for Sunday or Monday. Meanwhile on the same app League City (my home for High School) is showing a 70% Chance of Snow for Monday I’m leaning towards CMC, ICON, and slightly on GFS & NAM because I’m biased on seeing a decent widespread snow event for San Antonio instead of an ice event.

[captainbarbossa19]

Many may know the saying, "thunder in February, frost in April." I think this is a Southern expression because up north you are almost guaranteed to have frost in April. Anyway, I heard thunder today quite a bit and I have noted that there are very few years that do not have frost in April after hearing thunder in February in my area. Since we are having this cold outbreak now, I would not be surprised if overall colder than normal temperatures continue into the spring.