Pacific Northwest Weather

andycottle · #4981 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:16 pm

Looking at tonights Models...GFS, NGM, ETA, AVN, and MRF....they are all showing some fairly good amounts of precip over much of Western Wa for sunday afternoon-evening...though GFS, ETA and MRF are showing some what better amounts over the SW portation of the state. Airmass will again be moderatly unstable as lifted indices are -1 and CAPE values of 100 - 200 J/KG. Surface winds through 850MB appear to be southerly then switching to a westerly direction for late sunday afternoon-evening. 500MB winds look to be around the WSW at 20 to 30kts and temp of about -20C. So I think tomorrow could likely be a repeat of today...with MUCH more numurous showers/T-storms for sunday afternoon evening. Some of the more intense stroms could drop down some pretty hefty rain in a short time span. Aside from the storms....this weekend should be pretty nice.

-- Andy

Guest · #4982 Postby **Guest** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:23 pm

TT you say that people are nit picking at your little details, but it's only because you make your predictions and stick to close detail, but after the event has happened you lighten up to make it seem like you were DEAD ON... sure you had this warm pattern mapped out... But you hadn't a detail correct. Overall you were right on with the pattern change to warmer weather... But everyone knew it was going to be warm by the end of this week by about last sunday.

Snowwizz just keep posting, everyone knows that TT is a tightwad.

Guest · #4983 Postby **Guest** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:23 pm

TT-SEA · #4984 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:44 pm

I have been ripped apart by Brennan... and I stay.

Brennan... not everyone thought it was going to be warm. And definitely not this warm. Nobody else predicted 80 degrees in places. 8-)

TT-SEA · #4985 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:03 am

For the record... Snow_Wizzard has been calling for thunderstorms this weekend for a long time now.

The NWS dismissed the models completely.

I thought it look possible but Snow_Wizzard has believed all along.

It look likes he could be vindicated tomorrow. I would the say the chance is looking pretty good now.

andycottle · #4986 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:13 am

I too think thunder storms looks pretty good, but with a MUCH better chance for sunday. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #4987 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:58 am

Actually... I think tomorrow might be the better day. The NWS is thinking a marine push tomorrow afternoon may shunt the storms to the east and Sunday will just be a marine layer type of day (stable atmosphere).

Too bad we don't have Snow_Wizzard's input on this topic. He is the one tracking this possibility all week long!!

TT-SEA · #4988 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:01 am

Balmy night.

andrewr · #4989 Postby **andrewr** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:11 am

It was 62F at 10pm. I still can't get over the 66F reading you had TT at 10pm in JANUARY. That one still amazes me. While I share Snow_wizzard's love for cold weather, not much beats a warm breezy night; it just feels awesome.

andycottle · #4990 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:14 am

We`ll....we will see what happens.

Yes...a nice night it is. Currently 56 here at 11:13pm with DP at 43. Humidity...69%! :eek:

andycottle · #4991 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 9:40 am

Good morning folks! A nice mild temp of 50 degrees here at 7:41pm. DP is 46 with humidity 87% and baro holding steady at 29.47.

Acording to the Seattle NWS early morning AFD....today should be a action pact day as the could very well be gusty winds, hail of marble sized or greater, and the possible rotation in the clouds. Now this is severe weather folks!

I`m sure there will be lots of weather spotter calls later today to report the storms. And I will certainly report them as well. Whish I was staying home again today, but I have to work. Other wise, I could watch the storms fire up on radar and visable satellite.

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #4992 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 10:29 am

Spring is definitely the time of year for thunderstorms in Western Washington. Even severe.

This is from the Seattle NWS Spotter News (off their web site). This is the Spring Edition...

Thunderstorm season is here! Longer warmer days combined with cool air aloft still streaming onshore from the northeast Pacific Ocean produces periods of unstable air and our annual thunderstorm season. We do not get many thunderstorms when compared to other areas of the country. Yet, even our thunderstorms can and have produced large hail, damaging winds, and tornados and waterspouts.

Our convection season usually begins around March 1st with two peaks, both during our transitional seasons into and out of winter - fall and spring. April is usually our peak month for convection. In reviewing our history, April is clearly the most active month of the year.

Expect the unexpected in April. Wild swings and thunderstorms are typical during this month!!

AnthonyC · #4993 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 11:14 am

Today could be an interesting day...according to the NWS. I'm intrigued by the idea of strong, gusty winds...you don't typically see downbursts in Western Washington.

I'm not too good forecasting thunderstorms...I don't fully understand cape values, etc. But today is gonna be an awesome day. I bet Snow_Wizzard's in heaven right now!!

Anthony

R-Dub · #4994 Postby **R-Dub** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 11:23 am

Today might have some excitement in it, but this morning is clear, calm, and warm! Very nice out right now!

Currently 66 degrees at 9:20AM here at LK Goodwin! 8-)

Guest · #4995 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:17 pm

TT just because this is the season we can get thunderstorms and what not, it doesn't mean it is typical... Don't use someone else's single opinion to say that thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes and crazy weather is typical, because it's not.

TT-SEA · #4996 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:13 pm

That was from the NWS.

And we typically get some thunderstorms in April. It most common at this time of year. I would expect it at some point.

No thunderstorms in April would be abnormal.

That includes wind, hail (which we always get), and even weak tornadoes.

Last spring we had 8 tornadoes.

Guest · #4997 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:34 pm

That pretty much sums up everything... No kind of weather in April can be abnormal... According to your standards of abnormal, we would have to get something literally impssible for it to be abnormal. Last April had 8 tornadoes.. THAT IS NOT NORMAL.. YOU CANNOT EXPECT TO GET THAT KIND OF WEATHER... I DON'T CARE WHO SAYS IT IS... ITS NOT NORMAL AND YOU CANNOT EXPECT IT.

Guest · #4998 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:40 pm

Doesn't anyone else see in TT what i am getting out of him?

Guest · #4999 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:49 pm

TT-SEA wrote:It will be interesting.

AGAIN.. JUST TO REPEAT... I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DO NOT JUMP ALL OVER ME THE FIRST TIME SOMETHING APPEARS ON THE RADAR.

My predicted highs for Sea-Tac:

Friday - 68 degrees
Saturday - 71 degrees
Sunday - 67 degrees

My predicted highs for Bellevue:

Friday - 71 degrees
Saturday - 72 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

My predicted highs in North Bend:

Friday - 72 degrees
Saturday - 76 degrees
Sunday - 69 degrees

Currently sunny and 67 degrees at my house.

Ok TT, you said a high of 68 for sea-tac on friday, you were double digits off as they got to 78... You said a high of 71 for Sea-Tac today, what do we have here? a 62* at sea-tac at 1:45 in the afternoon? Looks like you are a big 9* off so far. Doesn't look to good there TT... What is your excuse for that? Am i nit picking at little details? Did you get the general prediction right? I don't think so...

Guest · #5000 Postby **Guest** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 3:56 pm

TT-SEA wrote:We have to make a bet on the weather for Sunday!!

I see some sunshine... offshore flow... and 850mb temperatures near 15C!!!!!!

That could EASILY make my prediction of the last 10 days come true. There will be a few spots touching 80 degrees.

Mid 50's?????

You trust the GFS too much in this pattern.

TT just admit it, your prediction was way off for sunday... You were so sure that i was going to be hott and sunny... You even wanted to bet on it.

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