Pacific Northwest Weather

andycottle · #501 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:38 am

Yes Tim, it`s quite a rain shadow indeed! And if Im correct, that rain shadow is being created by a strong West wind. Am I right? -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #502 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:57 am

TT...Very impressive stuff. Those temps and that amount of precip. This is a tremedously rare event for January. I would say it is inevitable that the Snoqualmie is going to flood very badly. It will be interesting to see where the precip bullseye sets up tomorrow. The ETA is a lot further south than the GFS. At any rate the Snoqualmie up through the Skagit are going to be BAD. I think you would have to agree that something out of the ordinary is likely to follow this event. I think normal is out of the equation this winter. :eek:

TT-SEA · #503 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 2:23 am

Yes... very strange indeed.

Anything can happen... and probably will.

andycottle · #504 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 2:32 am

Viewing tonights latest run of the 00Z GFS....Our weather is looking quite wet over next three days...18th - 20th. Precip also appearing on the heavy side to! And the GFS 12hr precip totals for 24 and 48hr period are showing as much 1.25" from about the upper central sound and points west and northward, with a few isolated spots recieving maybe 2" of rain or so. MOS for Seattle showing high temps in the lower 50`s over next 3 days. Weather is gona be mild for sure! -- Andy

TT-SEA · #505 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 2:33 am

57.8 degrees and raining hard.

3.65 inches today and still going up. Wow.

andycottle · #506 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 2:39 am

54 degrees and cloudy skies here 11:44pm with DP also at 54. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #507 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 9:17 am

55.2 degrees and already .70 for the day at 6 a.m.

The latest 06Z run of the GFS shows no signs at all of a return to winter through 384 hours

Cumulonimbus · #508 Postby **Cumulonimbus** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 9:25 am

Very wet and very warm. Look at the forecast for the PNA though. It shows it becoming increasingly negative again in about 2 weeks. It will be interesting to see how the models respond if that trend continues. It doesn't necessarily mean cold weather is headed our way but we have certainly had an extreme change in the past 3 days.

TT-SEA · #509 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 10:55 am

The PNA forecast is becoming less negative with time. It does not look like it will be negative enough for winter weather to return to the Pacific Northwest lowlands. Typically you need a -3 or -4 for a good arctic blast. I predict the PNA will go slightly negative like in early December... meaning no snow for the lowlands.

It could happen... but right now I have no models, no ensembles and no other indication that winter will return.

Here is the link to the PNA monitor...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html

snow_wizzard · #510 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:25 am

I am still very optimistic about a return to cold winter weather. The GFS ensemble mean continues to indicate a ridge at 150W by early Feb. It does not show the amplitude I would like, but that's not surprising because just a few mild ensemble members can really water down the severity of the progs. Given the extreme nature of the pineapple express regime we are in, I have to conclude the chances for cold weather are high. One thing for sure...the GFS is looking very favorable for snow in the mountains next week. :lol:

We are currenty at 54 degrees in Covington with light rain. The total for the storm is now up to 2.50 inches. :eek:

TT-SEA · #511 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 12:21 pm

God... I hope there is snow in the mountains next week.

6 inches of rain last night at Snoqualmie Pass and I-90 is closed again due to standing water 2 feet deep.

snow_wizzard · #512 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 12:44 pm

Water 2 feet deep on the road? :eek:

That means a lot of water is set to head down the river. The 12z run is strongly hinting at a cold trough with strong northerly flow after day 10. It shows 850mb temps dropping to -10C or so. A good start!

I just love all of the faces to choose from on this site! 8-)

TT-SEA · #513 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 12:49 pm

That was the report on the traffic radio station in North Bend this morning (1610 AM).

TT-SEA · #514 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:19 pm

I am at work... but the school site in North Bend shows 61.4 degrees right now!!

TT-SEA · #515 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:20 pm

Called my wife... 62.6 on our thermometer and rising!!

WOW. Is it January or June??

snow_wizzard · #516 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:13 pm

These temps are astounding! 52 degrees on Stampede Pass... :eek:

This further confirms my suspicions that something is up...and it's not just the temps. If we see the flip side of this coin we will be in the freezer for Feb.

krysof · #517 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:16 pm

The east will get hammered in February, but I agree that once again the first half of February will be cold and maybe snowy in the west and mild in the east, but not as mild as it once was and a great chance of snow for the second half of February for our area.

TT-SEA · #518 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:27 pm

More amazing temps...

Olympia is 61 degrees
Portland is at 62 degrees
And finally Vancouver, WA is at 63 degrees

Incredible.

TT-SEA · #519 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:30 pm

At my house in North Bend... my wife has reported 63.0 degrees.

TT-SEA · #520 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:55 pm

The worst of the rain is over.

The new 18Z run of the ETA shows only light precipitation from Seattle southward for the next 3 days.

As predicted... the main rain band is now in BC and will stay there. The Pineapple Express breaks down in a couple days and we get into a more zonal flow with occasional rain. Not a constant dousing like yesterday.

There should be no more amazing rain totals for most of Western Washington.

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